The South African Weather Service has maintained its previous forecast for a wetter-than-usual late summer for the north-eastern parts of the country, a forecast now extended into early autumn, while the southwestern parts will remain dry. (Photo: iStock) 
The next five months look set to be wetter than usual in the summer rainfall areas while autumn/winter rainfall regions of South Africa will be dry – a potent mix of drought and deluge that could spell despair in some areas, and delight for farmers in others.
“During the autumn months most of the areas that receive significant rainfall are expected to receive above normal-rainfall, with the exception of some interior regions that are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the March-April-May season,” the South African Weather Service said in its latest monthly Seasonal Climate Watch.
“Early winter rainfall indications show below-normal rainfall for the southwestern and southern coastal areas,” said the report, which looks five months ahead – in this case, until the end of June.
Read more: Where has all the water gone? Reflections on a visit to the Groot Karoo drylands
The forecast signals that the threat of a repeat of the floods that recently wreaked havoc in Limpopo and Mpumalanga has not receded. The silver lining is that dam levels and storage capacity in these areas will get a lift.
However, the outlook is grim for areas of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape that have been in the throes of a prolonged drought.
“... below-normal rainfall, coupled with largely expected above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures in most parts of the country during the autumn months are likely to increase water loss in areas such as the Western Cape and Eastern Cape where 634 and 258 settlements, respectively, are experiencing ongoing drought ranging between moderate, severe and extreme,” the report said.
Summer maize optimism
There is optimism regarding the summer maize crop though the rains across the grain belt have been erratic and water logging may occur in the eastern limb, which could negatively impact the harvest. Farmers are estimated to have planted 2.67 million hectares, 3% more than the previous season.
Another hefty maize crop will help to contain food price pressures and inflation, but farmers will struggle with low prices for their product.
Read more: Bad news for farmers as dry spring forecast for most of SA
The report also notes that the global weather dance known as the “El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña state; however, it is expected to return to a neutral state within the next month.”
Some meteorologists have already declared the end of the latest La Niña, which typically brings plenty of rain to much of southern Africa. And its polar opposite El Niño – which often brings drought to this region – looks like it may return to heat things up next spring and summer.
“Most predictions indicate that ENSO will continue towards a neutral state with a possible return to an El Niño state during the Southern Hemisphere spring months,” the report said. DM
