In a sport of fine margins, Sincaraz have opened a significant gap

Leading into the quarterfinals of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne, top 10 players Alex de Minaur and Ben Shelton played some sublime tennis.

The duo appeared to stand a realistic chance of breaking through at a Grand Slam. But then they ran into Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the last eight.

No 1 seed Alcaraz started his quarterfinal against De Minaur with three of the most sublime games seen this year. He moved like water and hit with the power of a sledgehammer and the precision of a laser-guided missile. Crowd favourite De Minaur was 3-0 down in no time despite playing some excellent tennis himself.

Alcaraz made a statement in those opening minutes. De Minaur pulled back to 3-3 as Alcaraz’s level dipped slightly, but he lost the first set 7-5 before losing the next two sets 6-2 and 6-1.

The Spaniard, in search of the Career Grand Slam if he wins in Melbourne, showed that his best level is still a few notches higher than any player’s other than Sinner.

The Italian No 2 seed, aiming to win a third straight Australian Open, did a similar job to Shelton in their quarterfinal.

The big American with a cannon-like serve struggled to hold in his opening service game, despite sending down a tournament-leading 232km/h bullet straight at Sinner’s body.

Shelton eventually held his opening service game, but the tone was set. No matter what speed of serve he launched, if it wasn’t perfect in placement or guile, it came back with interest. Sinner is the best returner of serves in the sport and he rattled Shelton, which led to a 6-3 6-4 6-4 win for the Italian.

Surging ahead

Those two matches, in particular, demonstrated how the pair, who have been dubbed the collective noun “Sincaraz” on tour, are surging ahead of the chasing pack.

Of course they lose occasionally, but that is almost always because they play below their best. When they are performing at optimum level, especially at Grand Slams over five sets, they are a league above anyone else.

The data backs this up. They have won the last eight men’s singles Grand Slams between them and played against each other in the last three Grand Slam finals.

Going into Melbourne, one of the gobsmacking statistical anomalies was that No 3 Alexander Zverev was more than 6,000 ranking points below Sinner at No 2.

In terms of points, Zverev was closer to India’s Atharva Sharma, last on the official ATP rankings at position 2223, than he was to Sinner one place above him.

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It does pose the question of what the rest can do to close the gap, or in the case of 38-year-old Novak Djokovic, what can be done to add one more Grand Slam to the 24 he has won?

Djokovic made it to the semifinals this week when Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti quit their quarterfinal with a thigh injury while two sets up. Djokovic acknowledged his good fortune, but bristled when it was ­suggested he had no chance of beating ­Sinner and Alcaraz (probably) to claim his 11th Australian Open title and his 25th Grand Slam.

“Are they [Sinner and Alcaraz] better right now than me and all the other guys? Yes, they are,” Djokovic admitted.

“The quality and the level is amazing. It’s great. It’s phenomenal.

“But does that mean that I walk out with a white flag? No. I’m going to fight until the last shot, until the last point, and do my very best to challenge them.”

If anyone has the mindset to ­challenge Sincaraz, it’s Djokovic, but his ageing body does not appear to be up to the task against men 14 and 16 years his junior (Sinner and Alcaraz respectively).

And his comments suggested he was not willing to publicly concede that the No 1 and 2 in the world are his peers just yet.

“Roger [Federer] and Rafa [Nadal] will always be my greatest rivals,” said Djokovic.

“I have tremendous respect for what Jannik and Carlos are doing and what they will do for the next 10 to 15, 20 years… God knows how many years they’re going to play; they’re so young.

“This is a natural cycle in sports. You’re going to have another two superstars and maybe have another third guy – who I’m going to cheer for – because I’ve always been the third guy at the beginning.

“But it’s good for our sport. I think these kinds of rivalries and the contrast of the personalities and the styles of play are very good for tennis.”

Chasing history

Alcaraz has looked marginally sharper than Sinner over the first five rounds in Melbourne, although the Italian’s game was on song against Shelton.

At the time of writing, they both had tough semifinals to navigate – Alcaraz against Zverev and Sinner against Djokovic – but, barring injury, it’s hard to see beyond them.

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Alcaraz has the added incentive of becoming the eighth man in history and the sixth in the Open era to complete the Career Grand Slam.

He hasn’t denied that it is a huge motivation. As far back as last September, after he won the US Open, he was already thinking about completing the final piece of this particular tennis jigsaw.

“It’s my first goal, to be honest,” Alcaraz said after his triumph in New York, referring to completing the Career Grand Slam. “When I go to the preseason to see what I want to improve, what I want to achieve, the Australian Open is there.

“It is always the main goal for me to ­complete a Career Grand Slam and Calendar Grand Slam.”

Sinner needs the French Open crown to complete his own career Grand Slam, but a third Australian Open would narrow the gap to Alcaraz, who has six career Grand Slams so far.

Going into the semifinals, Sinner was on a 20-match winning streak in general and a 23-match winning run at the Australian Open.

Either Djokovic or Zverev – or both – may have the last laugh in Melbourne, but don’t bet on it. The evidence suggests that in a sport of fine margins, Sincaraz have opened a significant gap. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.