Africa’s moment: Building resilience in an era of trade disruption

This year’s shifts to US tariff policies sent ripples through global economies, not sparing Africa. Export-dependent sectors in countries such as Lesotho, Madagascar, South Africa, Botswana, and Nigeria were suddenly faced with reduced market access, potential job losses, and unprecedented uncertainty. In South Africa, our automobile, steel, citrus, and wine industries overnight faced a 30% tariff, placing over 100,000 jobs and billions in trade value at risk.

But while these challenges seemed daunting, they are not insurmountable. We must up the ante on pivoting to new markets. Instead of succumbing to gloom, these shifts were an overdue wake-up call to accelerate regional integration, develop our value-chains, and diversify our markets where possible.

Africa’s over-reliance on single export markets has long been a vulnerability, a product of decades, nay centuries of systematic under-development. In responding, the following are tactics which we might consider:

• Deepening intra-African trade by removing non-tariff barriers and harmonising trade policies.
• Putting in place the mechanisms to invest in infrastructure at scale, be it our ports, rail, roads, and digital connectivity. These should aim to reduce the cost and time of moving goods across and off the continent.
• Promoting beneficiation. Value addition at source should be an imminent priority, as reiterated during the B20 and G20, which was held recently under South Africa’s presidency. We must ensure that our rich natural resources, from rare earth minerals to oil and gas or transition fuels like Green Hydrogen, are not exported in raw form where possible, and that local on-the-ground expertise is cultivated to ensure that we are developing our economies to fundamentally compete with the Global North.

In order to achieve these, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is an important instrument at our disposal. With 54 countries signed-on, it aspires to harness a $3.4 trillion market. But for it to work, we need to move at pace to go beyond political agreements to practical implementation, building supply chains and infrastructure that can connect producers to markets.

As banks, we can play a catalytic role in financing productive sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics, aiming to reduce import dependency on the continent. At Nedbank, we are actively supporting clients who are engaged in cross-border trade, particularly in East and Southern Africa, by providing tailored financial solutions and enabling digital payment systems that simplify settlements across currencies. For us, this is the manifestation of our purpose, which is to use our financial expertise for the good of our clients, shareholders, and society at large.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of our economies, must be prioritised. By providing them with access to credit, digital tools, and export opportunities, we can unleash their potential as engines of inclusive growth.

The private sector cannot do this alone. Public-private partnerships have already proven effective in areas like renewable energy, where urgency and collaboration led to scalable solutions. We must replicate this model in water management, agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics, enabling investment and innovation at speed.

At the same time, Africa should seek to reframe its global risk narrative. Too often, our economies are viewed through an outdated lens of political instability. We can now tell a different story, one that reflects the reality of modern African innovation, entrepreneurship, and resilience.

Africa’s young population, abundant resources, and strategic location should indeed set us up as a central player in the future of global trade. But in order to leverage this new reality, we must be proactive. This is not a time to wait for external actors to determine our fate. It is a time to invest in ourselves, deepen our markets, and build the resilience that will carry us through future disruptions, sure as they are to come.

While the changing global trade regime is a challenge, we should also view it as the trigger and a massive opportunity to co-create the Africa we wish to live in. Africa’s message to the world ought to be clear: We are capable, credible and collaborative. We are not waiting for change; we would like to shape, together, the development we sorely need, be it through innovation, investment and inclusive leadership. The strength of our financial institutions gives substance to this progress. DM

Author: Dr Terence G. Sibiya, Group Managing Executive: Nedbank Africa Regions