Rise of the Machines: 2025 ‘genesis’ year for humanoid robot production with 16,000 installed

The commercialisation of humanoid robot production is no longer confined to the realm of science fiction.

According to Counterpoint Research, global humanoid robot installations reached 16,000 units in 2025, with China unsurprisingly accounting for more than 80% of this android total.

Counterpoint did not provide comparative data with 2024 because there really isn’t any.

“The year 2024 was marked by mostly prototypes and was more of a pilot production phase. We’re regarding 2025 as the ‘genesis’ or official year of mass production,” Counterpoint spokesperson Charles Moon said in an emailed response to Daily Maverick’s queries.

So 2025 marked the dawn of the humanoid robot age. Cue in the theme music to Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 film 2001: A Space Odyssey.

AgiBot, a Shanghai-based startup founded in February 2023, accounted for most of the 2025 installations at over 30%. It and four other companies – Unitree, UBTECH Robotics, Leju and Tesla – took a combined 73% of this market in 2025.

Data collection and research, warehousing and logistics, manufacturing and automotive were the main sectors that utilised these machines.

And humanoid robot numbers look set to swell, with Counterpoint projecting that cumulative installations will reach more than 100,000 units by 2027.

“The next two years will see more humanoid enterprises commercialising the mass-production versions of robots, and their performance will largely determine the development pace of the whole industry,” Counterpoint said.

The research firm also drew attention to three key trends.

The first is that some humanoid robots are a bargain: Noetix’s Bumi is priced less than $1,600 (about R26,100). Check out the video below.

“The design of such products focuses on intelligent and emotional interaction and excellent mobility, rather than the capability of completing structured and unstructured tasks across the industry and service sectors,” Counterpoint said.

Another is that robot rentals are emerging as a key market, notably in the service sector.

“Leading humanoid enterprises are keen on scaling up their production capacity, likely resulting in decreasing manufacturing costs in 2026 and beyond,” is a third key trend identified by Counterpoint.

“Both Tesla and Figure AI have aggressive plans for building production lines with robotic involvement, and this movement indicates a key trend that the future industrial production will be adapted to the application of humanoid robots.”

Annual Humanoid Installation Share by OEM, 2025

There remains a lot of uncertainty on this front, but one thing is certain: it’s going to be a game changer of note and is joined at the metallic hip with the unfolding AI revolution.

What this means for you

Humanoid robots are hardly being used in sectors such as mining – at least not yet. But if projected estimates are even close to the mark, the machines could portend a coming jobs bloodbath in the shafts and other important sectors of the South African economy.

Robots do not join unions and in terms of costs and productivity it is hard to see how human labour will compete. Madam, for example, may find she no longer needs Eve. A robot could mix and deliver Gogo’s G&T at 5pm on the dot.

As S&P Global noted in a recent report warning of looming shortages for copper – an absolutely critical commodity – humanoid robots are seen emerging as a new vector of demand for the coveted red metal, which will compound the forecast shortfalls.

Read more: S&P sees looming copper shortages posing systemic risk to global economy

“There is much variance in projections for their scale by 2040 – varying from tens of millions to hundreds of millions to a billion or more. Whatever the actual number, these humanoids will not just be wired – but heavily wired – with copper,” S&P said.

It’s certainly a space to watch on a range of fronts including equities markets – and the labour market. DM