South Africa’s 2025 matric pass rate hits record 88%, but maths woes and late dropouts temper celebrations

Minister of Basic Education Siviwe Gwarube has announced that the National Senior Certificate (NSC) pass rate for the country’s Class of 2025 has increased to 88%, representing a 0.7% improvement over the 2024 pass rate.

“This was the largest class in history to sit for the final matric exams, with over 900,000 candidates. We are reaching more learners in Grade 12 than at any other point in decades,” she said.

KwaZulu-Natal led the provincial rankings with a stellar pass rate of 90.6%, closely followed by the Free State at 89.33% in second place and Gauteng at 89.06% in third. North West secured fourth with 88.4%, while the Western Cape took fifth at 88.2% and the Northern Cape sixth at 87.79%, marking the most significant improvement among provinces. Mpumalanga placed seventh with 86.55%, Limpopo eighth at 86.1%, and the Eastern Cape ninth at 84.17%.

The overall Bachelor’s pass percentage edged down from 48% to 46%, but the actual number of achievers rose by 8,700 to more than 345,000, the highest ever recorded. Additionally, 28% earned diploma passes and 13.5% secured higher certificate passes.

Quantity ‘just the start’

Gwarube said quantity was only the starting point. The next phase was about quality: making sure that access translated into learning, and learning translated into stronger outcomes, especially in gateway subjects.

She said the subject choices by the Class of 2025 reminded us again of the long reach of weak foundations.

“Only 34% of candidates wrote Mathematics, while most wrote Mathematical Literacy. This is concerning as Mathematics is an important gateway subject,” she said.

Gwarube noted that Accounting’s pass rate slipped from 81% to 78%, while Physical Sciences edged up slightly to 77% from 76%; however, the cohort earned fewer distinctions overall in Accounting, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences compared with 2024.

“As we celebrate, we do so with clear eyes. The next phase is about deeper mastery – especially in gateway subjects. It is about increasing the number of learners taking and excelling in Mathematics, Physical Science and other gateway subjects with support, so opportunity expands without quality collapsing,” she said.

Gwarube also highlighted encouraging enrolment gains in Mathematics, Accounting, Physical Sciences, and technical subjects, describing them as “a turning of the tide”, even if modest. Yet she stressed the system’s sluggish progress in these critical areas that unlock further study, scarce skills and economic opportunities.

Experts cheer equity progress but flag concerns

Reacting to the release of the 2025 matric results, education experts noted several improvements, especially in provinces that have struggled because of socioeconomic challenges. They pointed to several standout strengths in the results, starting with the even performance across districts and provinces, which showed no weak links pulling down the national average. Bachelor’s passes also rose across all quintiles, a clear sign that longstanding equity gaps are beginning to close.

Emeritus Professor Michael le Cordeur, from the Department of Curriculum Studies at Stellenbosch University, called the Class of 2025 matric results “impressive”.

While praising the overall 88% pass rate, Le Cordeur flagged the low Mathematics participation rate of 34.1% as deeply troubling for South Africa’s development.

“As a developing country, we need to encourage our learners to do mathematics,” he said.

He cited teacher insecurity as one of the causes.

“Many don’t have the confidence to teach this specialised, difficult subject. We need to train and develop them so they can inspire learners. We must also aspire to train learners’ skills, not just chase percentages. Tell learners and parents: your child needs a skill set for success, and mathematics is a major component,” he said.

Professor Mbulu Madiba, Dean of the Faculty of Education from Stellenbosch University, commended the Class of 2025 for achieving the highest results in the country despite challenges like Covid-19 and load shedding.

However, he also expressed concern over the 34.1% maths participation rate.

“It is a serious concern. Maths is very key, especially now, to follow different programmes at university,” he said, stressing the need for early interventions.

“By Grades 10, 11, or 12 it’s already too late to develop basic skills. I’m pleased the minister is working at foundation level, because we need to be building from the foundation so that can improve things in the long term. For now, we need support for learners in Grades 10-12,” he said.

Professor Suraiya Naicker, Head of the Department of Educational Leadership and Management at the University of Johannesburg’s Faculty of Education, praised the Class of 2025’s 88% pass rate as the highest ever, and said it was a sign of stabilisation.

She flagged two intertwined worries: Pure Mathematics participation at just 34.1%, and a meagre 64% pass rate among those who took it.

“We need to investigate why. Do schools lack the capacity to teach it well and motivate learners? Or are learners not getting adequate support and resources?”

Naicker said she agreed with Gwarube highlighting foundational gaps, but also urged action across phases.

“Much more needs to be done right from the foundation phase, through intermediate, senior and FET. In an AI-driven digital world, this hampers national progress. If participation is low and pass rates are low in gateway subjects, it’s a setback for the country. It’s no use having more students participate if they can’t cope; we need professional development for teachers, focus on how the subject is taught, resources to assist learners, and strong support systems,” she said.

Naicker called on school leaders to drive change through targeted interventions, particularly in maths and the sciences, to overcome longstanding weaknesses exposed in global benchmarks.

Late-stage dropout concerns

Gwarube said that in 2014, 1.2 million children entered Grade 1. By the time that same cohort reached Grade 10 in 2023, a decrease of about 4% was noted. She added that they had very high retention rates between Grade 1 and Grade 10.

“However, between Grades 10 and 12, a large number of learners begin to repeat, others even leave the school system. The full-time Grade 12 class of 2025 had about 778,000 learners enrolled. This tells us something important: the largest dropout pressure is not across the whole system – it intensifies late, as learners move into Grades 11 and 12. Nationally, only about 84% make it from Grade 10 to Grade 11, and about 78% from Grade 11 to Grade 12,” she said.

Addressing retention concerns, Le Cordeur spoke of widespread rumours of provincial “gatekeeping”, where schools deliberately held back learners in Grade 11 to safeguard stellar matric pass rates.

He spotlighted the Free State as an example. The province had topped national pass rates for the past five years, yet its throughput rate sat at just 57% compared with the Western Cape’s 80%.

“Our education system rests on three pillars: access, redress and equity. If we give learners access, we cannot gatekeep them just to boost pass rates. That’s not redress, and it undermines equity,” he said.

Echoing this, Madiba called for deeper investigation into Grade 11-12 dropouts, suspecting similar gatekeeping tactics.

“From Grade 9 to 10 is a big jump, and the maths and subjects become highly demanding, so many learners struggle,” he said.

“But why do learners who made it to Grade 11 not make it to 12? Schools sometimes retain them to protect pass rates, instead of letting them progress and tackle matric maths. A total of 84% reach Grade 10, but those final three years need scrutiny.”

Naicker saw the sharp rise in dropouts between Grades 11 and 12, following only 4% losses from Grades 1-10, as evidence of unresolved foundational gaps creating bottlenecks.

“If the earlier gaps are not closed, if development gaps in any grade or phase are not attended to, they will come to a head in Grades 10-12, when children choose subjects for the NSC,” she said.

Naicker said every phase needed proper remediation, monitoring and assessment of key subjects to build confidence for Grades 10-12.

Growth in Bachelor’s passes from no-fee schools

Gwarube said this year saw sustained growth in the number of learners from no-fee schools achieving Bachelor’s passes.

“Districts like uMkhanyakude and Umlazi remind us that outstanding outcomes can come from communities overwhelmed by lack and need. Over 66% of Bachelor’s passes were obtained by candidates from no-fee schools, and more no-fee schools are achieving pass rates between 80% and 100%,” she said.

Naicker said this was a very positive sign as it indicated that we were closing the equity gap. Echoing this, Le Cordeur said the performance gaps between poor and rich schools were narrowing.

“Poor schools are catching up very quickly; you will see that your quintile 1 and quintile 2 schools have made the same contribution to the number of Bachelor’s passes, which is extremely pleasing. This proves the poorest of the poor learners have as much potential as anybody else,” he said.

Candidates from Quintile 1, 2 and 3 schools achieved 218,009 bachelor’s passes, while those from Quintile 4 and 5 schools achieved 108,919 bachelor’s passes

Madiba celebrated the surging excellence in township and no-fee schools, saying that it is a sign the education system is maturing beyond resource disparities.

"It's no longer just a question of resources. We know that good leadership can contribute to good results. Schools that have got very little resources, with good leadership and effort among learners, are achieving bachelor passes. That is quite encouraging,” he said.

Experts tempered their optimism over the bachelor passes by highlighting a critical next hurdle: whether these qualifications deliver the high enough points for learners to secure spots in their desired careers, given the persistent limited spaces at tertiary institutions. DM