After the Bell: Donald Trump kidnaps the start of the working week

I feel I should start 2026 with a confession.

I was quite looking forward to sharing some of the details of my holidays with you, hopefully to remind you of your own lazy days watching the sun go down over a wonderful beach, bumping into people you know and quality time with the whole family together.

But it was while my son and I were packing the car that I realised this year was going to start, well, with a bigger bump than usual.

Like so many other events these days I first heard about it on a WhatsApp group. And like so many people on the group I couldn’t believe what I was reading.

I find it absolutely breathtaking that the government of one country has literally kidnapped the head of state of another.

I remember all of the arguments in our society about whether we should invite Vladimir Putin to that BRICS summit a couple of years ago, and the clarity that one simple fact appeared to provide: that nowhere in the modern era had it happened that a sitting head of state had been arrested by another country (I am, of course, aware of the Manuel Noriega example, but in that case that country’s legislature had already declared a “state of war” with the US).

The grabbing of Nicolás Maduro by the Trump administration appears to change things comprehensively.

In the short term we, as South Africa, actually seem to be in a pretty safe place.

Yes, members of our government have shown public support for the regime running Venezuela in the past, but it seems unlikely that we will stick our necks out very far. Certainly the first public response from our government, that the United Nations Security Council needs to meet and the rule of law must be followed, is entirely rational and legitimate.

While South Africa may be seen as an ally of Maduro and his undemocratic government, we are not nearly as close to him as China or Russia.

The first consequence, of course, is good for us: the gold price surged on the news of his abduction.

It is also one of the curious quirks of international markets that in the days after the obviously illegal kidnapping of the head of state of the country with the world’s largest oil reserves, prices just held steady. This is because members of the OPEC+ oil cartel agreed to keep supplies steady as their members try to regain market share in a period of relatively high supplies.

In fact, fuel prices here are coming down quite dramatically this week.

It’s the longer term I’m really worried about.

Anyone in any business has a very real interest in the rule of law everywhere. Without it, someone would literally just come and steal from you.

I’ve been told that one of the reasons people invest money here and not in Russia is that in Russia anyone who is able to get a good business up and running will just have it stolen from them.

Now that Donald Trump has broken international law in such a massive and obvious way, there is nothing to stop anyone else from doing the same.

If you have the power, if you have the might, then right is on your side.

The net result will be bigger countries just bullying smaller ones. Think Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan, the US and, perhaps, almost anyone.

You don’t need to be a historian to know the legacy of US intervention in other countries. In recent times it has led to failed states, misery and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Considering the current situation in Venezuela, with an illegitimate government, a kidnapped head of state, armed criminal gangs and a host of other actors, you can imagine how bad the outcome could be.

I must just point out one other obvious fact.

Trump is clearly going to get away with it. And now we have a person in the White House who can kidnap many people in the world he doesn’t like.

I don’t for a moment believe it will end here, considering the long list of people in the world Trump doesn’t like and the fact that he has the means and the ability to do it. What would stop him doing it in Cuba?

Given the ANC’s very close relationship with Cuba, that would have bigger ramifications for us.

But it could be so many other places. And there’s nothing to stop Putin doing it too.

Overall, Trump’s actions over the weekend, I think, are going to be a major milestone in the fundamental change we are seeing in the global order.

While the United Nations has been growing weaker and weaker, and the US and China and Russia and other big players have been using their military or economic power to bully other countries, this may be remembered as the start of the end of an international order based on rules.

The net result, over the longer term, will be the use of more violence, weaker rules and more instability.

Along with more deaths and more failed states.

My holiday has ended very abruptly this year. Perhaps I will be able to tell you about it tomorrow. DM