The South African Weather Service has maintained its previous forecast for a wetter-than-usual late summer for the northeastern parts of the country, a forecast that is now extended into early autumn, while the southwestern parts will remain dry. (Photo: iStock) 
South Africa’s summer rainfall regions including the urban/industrial hub of Gauteng have been drenched this season and things are expected to remain wet.
“During late summer and early autumn most of the areas that receive significant rainfall are expected to receive above normal-rainfall,” the South African Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report which looks five months ahead – in this case from January to the end of May.
“During mid-autumn the northeastern area of the country sees a reduction in rainfall climatologically. However, some central parts are still expected to receive above- normal rainfall.”
Much of this can be attributed to the La Niña weather pattern which most global forecasters say has already set in, though our domestic weather service maintains it is still looming on the horizon.
Dam levels are generally brimming in most provinces and the forecast bodes cautiously well for the summer maize crop. Farmers have signalled their intention to devote more hectares to the crop this season – though too much rain can produce less grain.
What this means for you
Expect a wet festive if you are in summer rainfall areas – you may need to braai under cover – and beware of the potential for flash floods. Summer grain crops such as maize should do well if rainfall is not excessive and spills over into the harvest period. And a stout maize crop will help to ease food inflation – there is a reason the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee pays attention to long-range weather forecasts.
The forecast also raises the spectre of potential flooding in some areas.
Another area of concern could be a late start to the rains in regions that have an autumn/winter wet season.
“Below-normal rainfall is expected over the southern and eastern coastal areas during autumn; a period those areas receive significant rainfall climatologically,” the report said.
Minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal for most of South Africa for much of the rest of the summer, but the forecast for maximum temperatures becomes hazy and uncertain for late summer and early autumn.
In Gauteng and other areas the past couple of months have certainly seemed to be on the cool side. DM