IFP supporters at the launch of the party’s voter registration campaign outside the Durban City Hall on 15 January 2019. The party has swept to victory to retain a seat in rural northern KwaZulu-Natal. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sowetan / Thuli Dlamini) 
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KwaZulu-Natal
Ward 17 (Mningi Biliya) uMfolozi, King Cetshwayo: IFP 62% (51%) MK 21% ANC 16% (42%)
The setting: Ward 17 is a rural, inland seat in uMfolozi. It includes the villages of Mningi, Biliya and Magwetshana. The ward sits beneath the Hlulhluwe-iMfolozi Park and is north of the town of Empangeni. The seat of uMfolozi is KwaMbonambi. It forms part of the King Cetshwayo District which includes the towns of Richards Bay and Eshowe.
The local government election: The IFP beat the ANC by 173 votes in a closely fought contest. The EFF finished a distant third with 4% of the vote.
The IFP won four of the seven voting districts while the ANC won the remaining three. Key to the IFP’s victory was the 164-vote margin at Bhiliya Primary School district in the village of Biliya. The party also built an important 84-vote buffer at Maqwabe Primary School in Magwetshana.
The ANC won the most-populous district in the ward, the Mandlazini Primary School district in the village of Mningi. The difference between the ANC and the IFP was two votes. The ANC did best at the Mningi High School district where it beat the IFP by 111 votes.
The IFP won an outright majority in uMfolozi, bagging 18 of the 35 seats. The ANC won 13, as the EFF finished third with three and the National Freedom Party completed the council composition with one seat.
The 2024 provincial election: The IFP came first here with 48% of the vote. MK did well, coming second with 37%. The gap between the IFP and MK was 233 votes. The ANC was third with 9%.
The IFP won six of the seven voting districts. The Bhiliya Primary School district was key again to the party’s cause as it beat MK by 133 votes. MK won the Mningi High School district, beating the IFP by 95 votes. The relatively vote-rich Mandlazini Primary School district only had a 13-vote difference between the IFP and MK.
The by-election: The ward councillor died from illness. The IFP had to retain this ward to keep its outright majority in the municipality.
The IFP cantered to victory in a relatively high turnout by-election. It beat MK by 961 votes. The IFP swept all seven voting districts in the ward. It beat MK by 25 votes in the Mningi High School district. Bhiliya Primary School was the best district for the IFP where it received 80%.
MK beat the ANC by 125 votes. It finished ahead of the ANC in four of the seven districts, and obtained more than 30% in two.
The IFP retains its outright majority in uMfolozi. The by-election took place a few days after the IFP premier, Thami Ntuli, survived a motion of no confidence. This by-election win caps off a very good week for the IFP.
Poll: 51% (47%)
Mpumalanga
Ward 14 (Harmony Park) Mkhondo, Gert Sibande: ANC 54% (38%) MK 36% AIMSA 6% EFF 4% (4%)
The setting: Harmony Park is south of the Mkhondo (formerly Piet Retief) town centre. It sits next to the N2 national road which links Mkhondo with Pongola and KwaZulu-Natal. The town is known for its timber industry. It is also the home municipality of opera singer Pretty Yende and cricketer Heino Kuhn.
The 2021 local government election: An independent candidate shocked the ANC, beating its candidate by 80 votes. The DA came third with 8% on the ward ballot.
The ANC won 62% of the proportional representation (PR) vote, with the EFF second on this ballot with 16% and the DA third again in the ward with 13%.
The 2024 provincial election: MK routed the ANC in this ward, winning 61% of the vote. The ANC came second with 20%, while the DA was a distant third on 9%. The EFF was fourth with 5% support.
MK was the most popular party in all of Mkhondo, winning 55%. The ANC came second with 28%, the DA third with 7% and the EFF fourth with 4%.
The by-election: The independent councillor and member of the mayoral committee died. A party formed in 2023 by an Mpumalanga ANC party veteran, the Assegaai Independent Movement of South Africa (AIMSA), was also on the ballot.
The ANC went 11 for 11 in by-election victories in Mkhondo since the 2021 local government elections with this win. What makes it even sweeter is that the ANC gained a seat, rather than defending one.
The ANC beat MK by 207 votes and in turn won back some voters who would have voted for MK in 2024. MK beat AIMSA by 332 votes.
While MK did not win the ward, it was able to assert itself as a significant presence here. The EFF will be disappointed by its poor showing in this by-election, as it finished last.
Poll: 44% (46%)
This was the final round of by-elections for 2025. By-elections will resume on 21 January 2026. The DA will defend a seat in Tshwane and two in George in the Western Cape, while 2026 is the year of the next local government elections. DM