US Congress moves to revive Agoa, but SA’s continued participation is in doubt

The US Congress is moving to revive the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which expired on 30 September this year – but it is uncertain whether South Africa will be included.

On Wednesday the powerful House Ways and Means Committee passed the Agoa Extension Act, a bill introduced by its chairperson, Jason Smith, to extend Agoa for three years, until 31 December 2028. The committee voted 37-3 for the bill, showing strong bipartisan support. It will next be considered by the full house.

It would reinstate Agoa retroactively to 30 September, also reimbursing importers for duties they have paid in the interval.

But on Tuesday the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer raised doubts about South Africa’s continued participation in Agoa, which gives duty-free access to the US market for eligible African countries, without requiring any reciprocal US access to their markets. It has been working since 2020, and has substantially benefited key South African industries such as auto, fruit and wine producers.

Greer told the US Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce that he would be happy to consider cutting South Africa out of Agoa if Congress wanted that.

He had confirmed to the subcommittee that the administration would agree to extending Agoa – though it would only like to see it extended by a year, which would give the administration and Congress time to reform it, including by giving the US some reciprocal benefits.

“But if you extend Agoa by a year without reforming it, that’s going to benefit South Africa, right?” asked Republican Senator John Kennedy.

Greer agreed, but pointed out that the administration had earlier this year imposed a 30% reciprocal tariff on South Africa which was much higher than the import tariffs for other African countries. His implication seemed to be that, with a 30% tariff, South Africa would not benefit much from Agoa anyway.

But Kennedy persisted, asking Greer: “Don’t you think we should separate South Africa from Agoa?” adding: “They’re our enemy right now. They’re buddies with our enemies.”

“I’m happy to consider that,” Greer replied. “If you think we should give South Africa different treatment, I’m open to that because I think they are a unique problem.”

He said South Africa had imposed “a lot of barriers, not just tariffs but non-tariff barriers” on the US. “We’ve made clear to South Africa that if they want to have a better tariff situation with us, they need to take care of these tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Because they’re a big economy. They have an industrial base. They have an agricultural base.

“They should be buying things from the United States.”

Kennedy recently submitted a bill to extend Agoa, but congressional sources recently told Daily Maverick it was “going nowhere”. Whereas Smith’s bill is considered likely to succeed because of his position at the head of a powerful committee.

Anthony Carroll, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Daily Maverick that it was unlikely that Smith would have introduced his bill “without at least a no objection from the White House”.

He added that Smith’s bill would extend Agoa until after the 2028 US elections. In other words, beyond Trump’s presidency.

“South Africa should take some comfort that it was not signalled out, although amendments could still be introduced,” he said.

Kaamil Alli, spokesperson for South Africa’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau, said: “Our conversation continues on the trade agreement with the US. We maintain that having a constructive trade relationship with the US will benefit both parties.

“We also have been actively lobbying for South Africa’s inclusion in the Agoa extension. In this respect we have been hard at work in our efforts to lobby for this through our representing Washington and our numerous visits to the US.”

Read more: Agoa has officially lapsed but US mulls one-year extension

However, Daily Maverick was also told that Pretoria believes that the US administration wants to keep South Africa out of Agoa so that it could negotiate a reciprocal free trade agreement with it.

Greer told the Senate on Tuesday that Agoa was not working as it should because China was making trade inroads into Africa. “If we’re going to have Agoa, this needs to be addressed.”

Kennedy had noted that China had a trillion-dollar overall trade surplus in 2024 – and that it was diverting many exports from the US to Africa, because of Trump’s large trade tariffs.

Africa Report reported this week that US legislators hoped to pass the Agoa extension quickly for inclusion in the so-called Continuing Resolution to continue funding the federal government past January 2026.

It also reported a lobbying blitz in Washington that was culminating this week in a series of events of pro-Agoa advocates with legislators, ambassadors and Trump administration officials.

“The Agoa Alliance, a coalition of US and African business, policy and trade leaders backed by Afreximbank and co-chaired by former assistant US trade representative for Africa Rosa Whitaker and former Utah congressman Chris Stewart, this week launched the ‘Continue Agoa!’ initiative in Washington, DC,” it said.

Short-term better than no renewal

Trade expert Stephen Lande, president of Manchester Trade, noted that although several members of the Ways and Means Committee had expressed frustration with South Africa on Wednesday, no formal proposal was introduced to remove the country from the programme.

“However, pressure on the Administration to reconsider South Africa’s eligibility during the next eligibility review after Agoa is renewed should be expected.”

“There was broad agreement that Agoa should be modernised when considered for long-term renewal before the expiration of the short-term extension currently under consideration,” Lande said.

He said members of the committee had also expressed concerns related to rules of origin — specifically the provision which allows Chinese fabrics to be incorporated into duty-free eligible imports under Agoa.

“There were also strong arguments for more rigorous enforcement of human rights and investment violations protections through removal of offending countries from Agoa.”

Lande said he supported the short-term renewal “because the longer Agoa remains unrenewed, the greater the risk it could face the same fate as the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Despite broad support and no opposition, GSP expired at the end of 2020 and has still not been renewed nearly five years later, leading many to believe it may never be renewed.”

He added that Manchester Trade also supported reforms to make Agoa more effective in generating African exports to the United States. This could include removing the link between human rights and Agoa eligibility or removing a country only as a last resort. He said the current eligibility uncertainty deters investment.

“This framework effectively penalises foreign investors for the actions of the governments of Agoa beneficiary countries. These conditionalities can also produce unintended collateral damage. For example, Ethiopia’s removal from Agoa in 2022 resulted in thousands of women workers losing their jobs despite Agoa’s stated goal of supporting vulnerable populations, including women.”

Lande also thought more modest adjustments might still surface at this stage, including transitioning from annual to triennial eligibility reviews, updating the graduation provisions, or allowing inputs from Morocco and other North African countries to qualify toward Agoa origin requirements. (Agoa currently only covers Sub-Saharan Africa.)

Given the uncertainties of the current political environment, Lande advised African countries to help guarantee Agoa renewal by negotiating reciprocal framework agreements with the US which would give the same access for US exports to African countries as they currently provide for exports of the European Union under Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and also to consider entering into critical mineral deals with the US like the one the Democratic Republic of Congo had done. DM