Kingmakers, knives and numbers: The vote that could hand KZN to Zuma’s MK party

While most South Africans will sloth about on Tuesday, 16 December (the Day of Reconciliation), KZN could wake up to a hangover of epic proportions, anything but kumbaya and cheerful Christmas vibes.

On 15 December, thousands of supporters of opposing political parties are expected to square off inside and outside the legislature.

If a showdown in the house goes in favour of Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, the day that once marked a Voortrekker vow forged in blood and later saw the birth of Umkhonto we Sizwe (the original) could go down in history as the date that the MK party seized control of KZN and its R158-billion budget.

The legislature vote is for what politicos are calling the Monc (motion of no confidence) in Premier Thami Ntuli.

The road to the Monc has been long and winding.

Beyond the epic symbolism of the date, the story has intrigue, factional warfare, a volatile kingmaker, tricksters in the wings and a whopping prize to motivate loyalty and treachery.

Razor-thin majority

A host of backroom deals are reportedly being concocted to thwart the MK party.

Zuma’s opponents describe the Monc as a power grab, while his supporters frame it as democracy, arguing that Ntuli has failed to act against corruption and maladministration.

Ntuli heads the government of provincial unity (GPU), which incorporates the African National Congress (ANC), his Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the lesser-known National Freedom Party (NFP).

Seventeen months ago, the GPU emerged victorious, but by a whisker in the 80-member provincial legislature.

The MK party swept the floor in the 2024 elections in KZN, securing 37 of the 80 seats, but the opposition united to keep it out of power.

The IFP (15), ANC (14), and DA (11) coalition took 40 seats and won power with the support of a single vote from the NFP’s solitary provincial representative, Mbali Shinga.

Shinga’s vote blocked the MK party’s then coalition prospects with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which secured two legislative seats.

Shinga was rewarded with a provincial cabinet post by Ntuli, who appointed her MEC for Social Development.

But Shinga and NFP party president Ivan Barnes don’t see eye to eye. He has lobbied the party caucus to demand she vote with the MK party to support the Monc.

Read more: KZN government on shaky ground after National Freedom Party threatens to quit coalition

Volatile kingmaker

All political parties have internal conflict, but in the infighting league, the NFP might win the prize.

A quick recap: the party spun off from the IFP in 2011 and has also played kingmaker in a few municipalities in KZN. Before the 2024 poll, the Electoral Commission of South Africa suspended the NFP’s registration after it failed to submit financial statements and amid factional battles, mainly arising out of the 2021 death of founder Zanele Magwaza-Msibi.

There was also court action related to the alleged rigging of the party’s national conference on 16 December 2023.

This week, almost two years later, Barnes said he had put to bed 26 of the 28 legal battles that have riven the party, and neither of the remaining two would affect next week’s Monc.

Barnes says the party has had to rid itself of some “rotten apples and rap a few people on the knuckles”, so all is on track for Monday.

“I am confident. We have met with EFF and MKP. We have agreed we will vote together on the Monc. Shinga is expected to comply with the NFP’s instructions.”

He predicts the vote will go to the NFP, MK party and EFF, with 40 members combined. The Speaker can vote only in the event of a tie. In this scenario, the GPU will lose by one vote: 40-39, so the Speaker can’t vote.

Barnes is a maverick kingmaker, and opponents call him an opportunist. After the GPU was sworn in, he was cast aside.

“They forgot about me,” he says, before suggesting the NFP is not against the GPU; it just doesn’t like Ntuli.

If the premier sacks the MECs of transport, health and education, the NFP won’t vote with the MK party, Barnes says.

GPU positioning

For the IFP, hell will freeze over first.

On Tuesday, the party’s national executive committee reaffirmed its confidence in Ntuli and described the Monc as a reckless attempt to destabilise the province.

The ANC’s Siboniso Duma, the second deputy convener on the party’s provincial task team (PTT), expressed confidence that the coalition would hold.

Duma said he personally knew all the ANC caucus members, some of whom he had known for decades. They are “trusted” and he is confident they will not vote in favour of the motion.

“I do not think there is going to be any shenanigans from the ANC.”

Duma says the administration is concerned only about service delivery.

“Nothing is going to happen, we are more bothered by what is going to happen during festive season. Are our people going to get service delivery? Is KZN going to attract investors and tourists – are they going to get the warm reception that they understand as tradition? So that is what is on our minds as opposed to a motion of no confidence, which is artificially designed.”

Duma believes the motion is politically motivated and says the MK party does not have the best interests of residents at heart, citing its failure to clarify its involvement with the 17 South Africans stuck on the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine war, who were allegedly promised jobs in the party.

ANC insiders, however, said party bigwigs were pulling the troops into line ahead of the crucial vote on Monday. A lot could go wrong.

A few absent members could mean the MK party succeeds, and the ANC in KZN is, in effect, under the administration of a provincial task team (PTT) due to factional conflict and the party’s dismal election performance.

“The PTT is divided,” an insider said.

“Some are in favour of the GPU and others not, but the leadership wants to continue with the GPU, so they will be trying to do a deal with the EFF. It will probably happen in Joburg before Thursday.”

The ANC leadership is in Johannesburg for its National General Council meeting this week.

“They are probably counting on Bheki Mtolo’s relationship with Julius Malema to swing a deal.”

Mtolo is the ANC’s former provincial secretary in KZN.

“Without the support of the EFF, the MK’s Monc is a non-starter. So a bit of horse trading is needed. They need to be nice to Malema. But, it is difficult to trade with someone who says he has no ambition to be in government.”

Critical but stable

A senior politician in the GPU said the stakes were way too high for a secret ballot. Barnes is not relying on MK party sleepers in the ANC or IFP voting against their parties. They will be fired and immediately replaced, as Shinga will be if she goes rogue, he warns.

DA provincial cabinet member and KZN public works MEC, Martin Meyer, says things are tense ahead of the Monc.

He said there could be a multitude of “bizarre, but realistic scenarios” emerging out of the Monc. If the premier is forced to resign, the legislature has seven days to reconvene to elect a new premier.

“If 41 members of the legislature vote against the GPU, we will leave with our heads held high. KZN is a better place because of the GPU. MK is a party that publicly disavows the Constitution and sends people to war in Russia. Their members are corrupt.”

Meyer said the GPU wasn’t always stable, but the MK party was a textbook example of instability, with nine chief whips in the KZN legislature since June last year.

“We will have to see how the chips fall on Monday.” DM

Additional reporting by Nonkululeko Njilo.