Will Ramaphosa stay or go? What you need to know about the ANC’s NGC

The National General Council (NGC) of the ANC runs from 8-12 December at the Birchwood Conference Centre in Boksburg. It is a mid-term assessment by the party between its national conferences. National conferences hold significant importance as electoral gatherings, whereas an NGC serves a different purpose: it assesses policy and evaluates the party’s progress in fulfilling its resolutions.

However, NGCs have been a proxy for how well the party’s president is doing and what the rank and file are thinking about the president’s performance. At previous NGCs, it was possible to perceive the growing discontent surrounding former president Thabo Mbeki, signalling the emergence of the Jacob Zuma era.

Rumours of a plot against Ramaphosa

The Sunday World has, over the past few months, reported that President Cyril Ramaphosa could face a move to unseat him at the NGC, with Mbeki installed as a caretaker president. The publication said the resistance to Ramaphosa is led by two deputy ministers, Mondli Gungubele (Communications) and Joe Phaahla (Health).

It also reported that Ramaphosa stared down a rebellion by warning against it during a meeting of the party’s National Executive Committee. Both Gungubele and Phaahla, who were demoted from full to deputy ministers last year, denied the reports.

Mawande AmaShabalala and Setumo Stone, who led the reporting, are experienced and connected, and I read them religiously. However, the reports are unsourced, and there is no indication of how many sources the publication spoke to.

My rule of thumb when editing and relying on anonymous sources in political reporting is that it is necessary to have at least three sources and indicate where they fit into the power matrix. This is because it is too easy to be spun by factions in a party. (The Sunday World is hard-paywalled. I find it better to buy a subscription on Magzter.)

ANC leagues stomp on rumours

It was interesting to watch the denials ping into our inboxes from the ANC after the Sunday World report over the weekend. The ANC said it was “misleading and destructive reporting”. Quoting the party grandee, the late Oliver Tambo, the party warned against “wedge-drivers” or factionalists in its ranks.

Next to defend unity was the ANC Youth League (ANCYL). “We reject with contempt the baseless claims that there are any plans to recall President Cyril Ramaphosa,” it said. The ANCYL is usually a staging post for generational insurrection in the party, so it’s worth taking the denial seriously.

Also in Sunday World, Queenin Masuabi reported that the Veterans League, led by Snuki Zikalala, also blew a gasket at the reports.

Read more: ‘Ramaphosa’s going nowhere,’ says Mashatile amid reports of ANC factions plotting president’s removal

ANC to investigate where plot talk started

Lizeka Tandwa of TimesLIVE reported that Gungubele asked the party’s National Working Committee, its operational executive, to investigate the rumours, and it had agreed. She also reported that Ramaphosa’s hosting of a successful G20 had shored up his position. (TimesLIVE is paywalled and well worth a subscription.)

The ANC was piqued when its leader, during a September meeting of councillors, told them that the party’s future depended on them being better at their jobs. He also ad libbed that they should learn from DA municipalities.

Read more: ‘Without you doing anything, we are dead,’ Ramaphosa tells local ANC councillors

Avuncular statesman

Ramaphosa, with a good team, pulled off a successful G20, no matter what US President Donald Trump says. He has come across as a statesman who refused, through 19 attacks by Trump this year, to sink to the same language or intemperate behaviour. While there are no post-G20 polls, commentators agree that the President did well.

I wrote that the G20 revealed a world that is rapidly going peak- or post-Trump as middle powers rise.

Professor John Stremlau wrote that, as with democracy, multilateralism is endless and complex, but South Africa demonstrated at the G20 Summit that it can and should be peaceful, popular and enabling.

Will Ramaphosa stay or go? The perfect moment

Here’s one view: This is the perfect moment for Ramaphosa to step down. He is recognised as a global statesman, and this year South Africa practised a diplomacy of ubuntu which was more principled: it didn’t, for example, discount the war in Ukraine while exercising solidarity with Palestine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited South Africa, even if his trip was cut short, and SA officials have been part of peace efforts.

The Madlanga Commission of Inquiry and the Parliamentary ad hoc inquiry into allegations of the criminal infiltration of the police service by organised crime networks, initially levelled by KZN Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, have opened up cans of worms that will take years to resolve. Does Ramaphosa want this headache at the age of 73? Or does he leave the political stage now and enjoy the life of an African elder statesman?

Will Ramaphosa stay or go? – Please don’t

Here’s another view: Now is not the time for a change of president by the ANC or the country. South Africa’s trajectory has shifted, as business leader Adrian Enthoven showed in this essay. An interest rate cut, a sensible inflation target, an upgrade by the hawkish S&P Global Ratings agency, a well-received Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement and reforms in energy and logistics show that South Africa is on a better path.

A change in leadership and the airing of an ANC battle for its presidency (there are at least three candidates in the running) will significantly alter the prevailing sentiment. DM