Decline in murders brings little consolation for victims’ families

Lefa Moino (21) was murdered in Johannesburg in November. His mother, Sarha, has a message for the police minister: “I don’t know if the official crime stats mean anything at all to me. We see people die daily right where we live, and it’s not just natural deaths, it’s murders.”

Cedric Ross (16) was murdered in Atlantis in August. His mother, Rochelle, said: “Our children are being killed like flies. If this so-called decrease could actually stop the bodies lying in our streets, then we could celebrate. But not now.”

Olorato Mongale (30) was killed in May in Johannesburg. Family spokesperson Criselda Kananda said: “One life taken away is too many. These numbers mean nothing for most of us. I would like to see stats that show real consequence management.”

Presenting the crime statistics on 28 November for the period April to September 2025, Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia echoed these sentiments of many families and communities, who are angry and afraid.

“I understand and respect your worries about the lack of security, since too many criminals escape justice. I know what it feels like to be mugged in the street, to be raided in one’s home, and my heart goes out to those whose lives have been shattered when their loved ones are killed, injured or traumatised as a result of violent crime.”

He added, almost reluctantly: “Importantly, we are seeing ongoing and significant reductions in serious violent crime. Murder has started to decrease significantly.”

The South African Police Service (SAPS) recorded a decline in reported murders in the first and second quarters of 2025/26. From April to June, murders fell 6.9% to 5,770 compared with the previous year. July to September saw an 11.5% year-on-year drop to 5,794.

The numbers follow a recent trend: according to the SAPS 2024/25 annual report, murders decreased more than 10% to 24,692, down from 27,621 in 2023/24.

Analysts say it’s too early to tell whether the tide might be starting to turn on violent crime, and murder in particular. But the relatives of murder victims point out that each murder, let alone the more than 11,000 in six months, has devastating effects on families and communities. This is exacerbated by the reality that most murders are unsolved.

The data does, however, suggest at least a slight improvement in the murder crisis.

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Positive trends?

Lizette Lancaster and Chandré Gould from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) have charted the link between the murder rate and governance. The rate per 100,000 people peaked in 1993 before it saw a long-term decline until 2011. In the 13 years to 2024, the rate steadily increased, with reported murders peaking at 27,621 in 2023/24.

This suggests that violent crime worsened after the Fifa World Cup and during former president Jacob Zuma’s State Capture years, and it might finally be improving after the Covid pandemic, during President Cyril Ramaphosa’s second term. Such inferences, however, are still a leap.

Writing about the crime stats for January to March this year, which included a 12.2% drop in murders compared with the same period in 2024, Lancaster and Gould said: “The reduction in murder rates is good news, but it’s too early to know whether this is an outlier in an ongoing upward trend, or the start of a sustained decrease underpinned by stronger governance.

“As promising as this is, better governance alone won’t address persistently high violence levels. Even at its lowest point in 2011, the murder rate was more than five times higher than the international average.”

Death and statistics

Dr Simon Howell, a senior research fellow at the University of Cape Town’s Centre of Criminology, said although there has been a decline in murders, the overall picture remains far more complex. He cautioned against drawing strong conclusions from short-term movements in the numbers.

“If you take it to a broader level, the fluctuations are so small in comparison to the total number that it’s very difficult to attribute any form of causality or correlation to the increase or decrease. We can only make firm conclusions if these patterns remain consistent over a number of years.”

Howell also noted that the crime stats can be misleading. The quarterly stats include raw numbers of reported crimes, rather than the rate per 100,000 people, and focus on year-on-year quarterly changes rather than annual shifts.

Independent researcher and ISS consultant David Bruce said despite the decline in murders in the most recent stats, it remains far too early to declare that South Africa is “winning the war” on violent crime.

“The short answer is that we do not have instruments sensitive enough to give precise answers [as to why the trends change]. The trends are not uniform – they vary between different provinces. Any interpretation must take account of these differences. Overall, it remains something of a puzzle.”

In the first quarter of 2025/26, Gauteng recorded the highest number of murders at 1,429 cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at 1,199 and the Western Cape at 1,148. Gauteng and the Western Cape were the only provinces that recorded increases compared with the same period in 2024/25 – 3.5% and 0.9% respectively. The greatest decreases were in North West (26%), KwaZulu-Natal (17.6%) and Mpumalanga (15.6%).

In the second quarter, Gauteng led with 1,443 cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (1,189) and the Western Cape (1,160). The Western Cape was the only province that recorded an increase in murder cases (9.1%). Several provinces recorded double-digit decreases compared with the same period in 2024/25, including the Eastern Cape (21.5%), Limpopo (20.2%) and Mpumalanga (20.1%).

Bruce said the Western Cape’s entrenched gang problem, amplified by the illegal firearms trade, remains a central driver of violence there. “This has been an intractable element of violence in the province and clearly calls for a sustained and focused response… Minister Cachalia has indicated that this is one of his priorities.”

Bruce said the decline in overall murder numbers is likely the result of a combination of factors, including economic conditions, unemployment levels and specific policing methods. “These trends are likely to reflect a variety of factors, not just policing.”

Anti-crime activist and broadcaster Yusuf Abramjee said the latest crime statistics offer “good news to some extent”. But he added: “South Africa’s crime levels remain among the highest on the continent, and that should worry all of us.”

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What justice?

Despite the recent reduction in murder numbers, serious concerns remain about the SAPS’s ability to prevent violent crime and investigate murders, as well as the National Prosecuting Authority’s ability to prosecute murder cases successfully.

According to Gareth Newham, head of justice and violence prevention at the ISS and Cachalia’s special adviser, the SAPS’s ability to detect murder stood at just 11% in 2024. Over the past five years, the murder conviction rate was 13%.

Howell said many of the issues regarding the police’s inability to tackle murder cases stemmed from the SAPS’s organisational culture and structure.

“In some sense, the SAPS is trying to deal with these issues, but they are deeply embedded in the organisational framework itself,” he said. “So you’ve got two options: you either fire everyone, or you try to reconfigure the structures.”

Abramjee stressed that it will take “a lot of hard work, real commitment from the government and genuine political will to reclaim our streets and fight the scourge”.

He added that the criminal justice system remains a major problem, which is why closer collaboration between all government departments is essential if South Africa is to collectively tackle crime. He emphasised that the SAPS must develop clear, effective strategies to combat violence.

Presenting the crime stats, Cachalia outlined three priorities for his administration, which he said would strengthen public safety: tackling organised crime, professionalising the police and accelerating the Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy.

Lack of trust

The police have often pointed out that they can’t solve the violent crime crisis alone. The April to June 2025 crime stats list the top five causative factors in murder cases as arguments, misunderstanding, road rage and provocation; retaliation and revenge; robbery; gang-related; and vigilantism or mob justice.

Crimes such as mob justice are linked to the public’s lack of faith in the police. A recent survey by the Human Sciences Research Council shows that public trust in the SAPS has plummeted to its lowest point in nearly three decades.

“Trust levels have remained relatively low over the course of this period,” a report on the survey stated. “Not once during this 27-year interval did more than half the adult public say that they trusted the police.

“This suggests that the issue of police legitimacy is by no means a new one.”

Criminologist Dr Guy Lamb, a lecturer at Stellenbosch University, said the decline in murders might be linked to intensified policing, specifically the high-density operations under Operation Shanela, which was launched in 2023.

In the week to 1 December, a total of 16,509 suspects were arrested for serious crimes, including murder, rape, attempted rape, robbery, car hijacking and drug-related offences as part of Operation Shanela’s festive season crackdown. These operations involve deploying large numbers of officers in targeted areas, arresting wanted suspects, confiscating firearms and creating a heightened, visible police presence.

“It does have an effect on murder,” Lamb said. “If you do it systematically, it can bring the numbers down – but only temporarily. It doesn’t address the deeper drivers of murder and other forms of violent crime.

“These operations do not address the socioeconomic drivers of violence such as pro-violence norms, alcohol and drug abuse.

“The government has developed the Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy to address these drivers, but the strategy is underresourced.”

‘People die daily’

Lefa Moino (21) was stabbed to death in Thembelihle, near Lenasia in Johannesburg, in November. According to Moino’s mother, Sarha Moino, she last saw him alive late in the afternoon when he returned from work.

“He dropped off some of his belongings and went out to see some friends. I had returned from a wedding, so I had personally seen him return from work and then leave again,” Moino said.

She said she suspected that her son was killed in a gang-related feud, although she did not know him to be involved with gangs.

The family believe they know who killed Lefa, but they have struggled to open a case with the police because, Moina claimed, they were told to first bring a witness.

Her son is yet to be buried.

‘One life is too many’

Olorato Mongale (30) was killed in May in Johannesburg after going on a date. Three men were initially fingered for her murder: Philangenkosi Sibongokuhle Makhanya was shot dead by police; Fezile Ngubane was cleared; and Bongani Mthimkhulu remains on the loose.

Family spokesperson Criselda Kananda said the decline in murder stats is simply numbers and not a true reflection of what is happening on the ground.

She said perpetrators are often granted bail, let out on parole and released back into their communities, where they reoffend. Although Kananda is despondent, she is of the view that the men and women in blue are doing their job, but the issues are structural.

“It’s a system that continuously fails citizens. Something has to give. If we only focus on numbers and not people’s lived experiences, we’re missing the point.”

Asked what happened to the case, Kekana responded: “It died with Olorato.”

“There is no communication, no update unless we pick up the phone and ask. Nothing is being communicated. The suspect is still out at large – God knows what else [Mthimkhulu] is doing to who?”

In three weeks’ time, the Mongale family will spend their first Christmas without their daughter. Her mother, Poppy Mongale, is reportedly battling to come to terms with her absence. “She’s losing it. Every day is a constant reminder.”

‘Bodies in the streets’

Rochelle Ross, from Atlantis, Western Cape, whose son, Cedric Ross (16), was gunned down by shooters in August, says the police minister’s comments on declining murder rates “lands like an insult”.

“The latest crime stats are no reason for celebration. Every day when I scroll through the crime WhatsApp groups, all I see are the bodies of young children lying in the streets, killed in the crossfire.

“I don’t understand how the police minister can say the murder rate has gone down.

“How could it possibly have gone down when every day on TikTok or in the crime chat groups you see our young people are being murdered?

“These are our future leaders, our doctors, lawyers and teachers who are being gunned down daily,” Ross said.

Cedric was in his second year at the School of Skills. It was his dream to become an underwater welder.

On the day of his murder, after fetching his two nieces from the crèche, he went for a walk at about 4pm.

His last words to Ross were: “Mommy, I’m coming now. I won’t be long.”

After receiving a call informing her Cedric had been shot, Ross rushed to the scene and prayed over him before he was taken to hospital, where he died. He is believed to have been shot by gangsters.

Ross said the decrease in the murder rate was not a reason to celebrate.

“Not at this stage, when communities have become accustomed to seeing bodies lying in pools of blood, with children playing near the scenes as if it’s normal.” DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.