A citizen casts their vote during the general elections in Soweto on 29 May 2024. (Photo: EPA / Kim Ludbrook) 
Mpumalanga
Ward 14 (Embalenhle) Govan Mbeki, Gert Sibande: ANC 44% (48%) DA 27% (19%) EFF 17% (18%) MK 10% Ind-Kunene 2%
The setting: Embalenhle, the most-populous township in Secunda, is west of Sasol and west of Secunda. Govan Mbeki sits on the Highveld Ridge and borders Gauteng. Other towns in the municipality are Bethel and Leander. About half of the residents in Embalenhle are Zulu-speaking.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won less than half of the vote in this Embalenhle ward but still finished 442 votes ahead of the second-placed DA. The latter edged out the EFF by six votes. The local Singukukhanya Kwezwe Christian Party came fourth with 6%.
The ANC won 41% of the vote across Govan Mbeki, giving it 26 of the 63 seats. This is the Mpumalanga municipality where the ANC had its second-worst performance. Nearby Steve Tshwete (Middelburg) was the only municipality where the party’s vote share was inferior, taking 37%.
The DA was second with 17 seats, followed by the EFF in third with 13. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) came fourth with a creditable three seats. The final four were shared by three parties.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 40% of the vote in the districts making up Ward 14. The uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party hurt the ANC and the DA in this ward to finish second with an impressive 30%. The EFF came third with 14% and the DA fourth with 10%.
The by-election: The ward councillor and member of the mayoral committee Jabu Zwane resigned from the council and the ANC after his concerns about irregularities were not dealt with. Zwane sat out the by-election. The ANC was joined on the ballot by MK, the EFF, the DA and an independent candidate.
The ANC beat the DA by 352 votes in a competitive race. The Church of Jesus Christ Extension 14 is the voting district with the highest number of registered voters. The ANC built up an impressive buffer here, beating the DA by 341 votes. This was the only district where a party was able to breach the 50% mark. The EFF was second in this district with 20%.
The DA won the Siqalo Simfundo district, the second-most-populous district in the ward, with 47%. It beat the ANC by 88 votes here. The EFF was third with 10%.
The ANC won the district with the fewest registered voters with 45% support. The EFF pipped the DA to second place in this district with 21%, 1% ahead of the DA.
The MK came second here in 2024 on the provincial ballot. The party finished fourth in all three voting districts. This was a disappointing result for a party that gave the ANC a major scare in the ward in 2024. Mpumalanga was the province where the MK did second best percentage wise in 2024. This is the second successive poor result for MK in Mpumalanga. There is a by-election in Mkhondo in December where MK will hope it can win its first Mpumalanga ward and turn its ship around in the province.
This was the DA’s second successive good result in Mpumalanga. In October it took a ward from the ANC in the Emalahleni municipality. The difference between the Govan Mbeki and Emalahleni wards is that the latter is diverse. The DA will be buoyed by its solid second-place showing in a township by-election and that it was able to win a voting district. The party was also well up relative to its 2024 showing in the districts in the ward.
The ANC will be satisfied with this victory. It also improved on its 2024 showing in this ward. It was able to keep the EFF at bay and will take keen note of MK’s performance in the by-election.
Poll: 42% (35%)
Limpopo
Ward 37 (Mphanama Mogodumo) Fetakgomo Tubatse, Sekhukhune: ANC 71% (57%) EFF 13% (28%) Ind-Masweneng 6% Sameba 5% (<1%) Bolsheviks 2% (<1%) SACP 1% MK 1%
The setting: The rural Ward 37 comprises a few villages. Most of the voters reside in Mphanama. Other villages are Mogodumo and Strydkraal. The ward is near the R579 road which links Lebowakgomo with Jane Furse.
Fetakgomo Tubatse is the third-most-populous municipality in Limpopo and its seat of power is Burgersfort. Premier Soccer League team Sekhukhune United hail from this municipality. The Sekhukhune district is an ANC stronghold.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the EFF by 638 votes. They were the only parties in this ward that were able to get sizeable support here.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won close to three-quarters of the vote here with a 74% haul. The EFF was second with 17%. The Bolsheviks Party of SA (BPSA) won 2%. Both MK and the South African Maintenance and Estate Beneficiaries Association (Sameba) received less than 1%.
The by-election: The ward councillor died. A crowded field gathered to take on the ANC. An independent candidate who is active in Floyd Shivambu’s Afrika Mayibuye Movement was on the ballot. This is the first indication of the support candidates linked to Shivambu’s party could have. The South African Community Party (SACP) has fared poorly in recent Limpopo by-elections and was hoping for better returns this time.
Read more: By-elections hub
The ANC won big in this by-election, taking more than 70% of the vote. It won more than 70% in four of the six voting districts, with support ranging from 66% to 76%. The party’s only challenge was in the Thobehlale Primary School voting district. It came from Sameba which won a noteworthy 22%. Sameba was unable to replicate this anywhere else in the ward. However, its showing at the school ensured a fourth-place finish.
The EFF was runner-up again in this ward, coming second in five of the six voting districts. However, its support more than halved relative to its 2021 showing. The party was affected by the independent candidate, an activist in the Afrika Mayibuye Movement. Floyd Shivambu will be satisfied that the candidate with links to his party was able to beat both MK and the SACP.
The SACP had another poor night in a Limpopo by-election. If there is some solace for the party, it was able to finish ahead of MK.
Poll: 58% (46%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 26 November. This will be the last major round of by-elections for the year, with eight contests taking place. There will be three in the Sarah Baartman district of the Eastern Cape, where the ANC will defend a safe seat in Makana and a very competitive seat in Kou-Kamma. The DA will defend a marginal seat in Kouga. The Patriotic Alliance is expected to loom large in Kou-Kamma and Kouga.
The DA will defend a seat in Sandton in Johannesburg while the ANC will hope for a strong victory in Merafong on the West Rand of Gauteng. The ANC will have to face off against MK in Mandeni, KwaZulu-Natal. In the Northern Cape the ANC will defend two wards, in the Hantam municipality and in Siyancuma. DM