---
title: "It’s back! La Niña has formed, raising rain hopes for SA farmers this summer"
description: "La Niña typically brings above-average rains to southern Africa and this one is expected to persist into early 2026, coinciding with most of the summer grain-growing season. This can also be a mixed blessing since the risk of flooding events is also significantly raised."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "WEATHER RESPITE"
author: "Ed Stoddard"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/ed-stoddard/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-10-15-la-nina-has-formed-raising-rain-hopes-for-sa-farmers-this-summer/"
published: "2025-10-15T12:57:17"
updated: "2025-10-15T22:00:20"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 372
---

# It’s back! La Niña has formed, raising rain hopes for SA farmers this summer

> La Niña typically brings above-average rains to southern Africa and this one is expected to persist into early 2026, coinciding with most of the summer grain-growing season. This can also be a mixed blessing since the risk of flooding events is also significantly raised.

By Ed Stoddard · Published 15 October 2025, 14:57 SAST · Updated 16 October 2025, 00:00 SAST

## Key points
- La Niña is back to sprinkle some much-needed hope on South African maize farmers this summer, promising a bountiful harvest while simultaneously raising the spectre of flooding.
- La Niña returns, promising hope for South African maize and grain farmers with anticipated above-average rains this summer.
- The weather pattern, emerging in September 2025, is expected to last into early 2026, coinciding with the crucial grain-growing season.
- While beneficial for crops, the increased rainfall also raises the risk of flooding events across the region.
- Climate change concerns were highlighted at a recent agricultural conference, with experts warning of rising temperatures and shifting seasonal patterns.

## Content

It’s official: the La Niña weather pattern is back and that heralds hope for South African maize and other grain farmers this summer season.

“La Niña conditions emerged in September 2025,” the [US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre said](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml).

La Niña typically brings above-average rains to southern Africa and this one is expected to persist into early 2026, coinciding with most of the summer grain-growing season. This can also be a mixed blessing since the risk of flooding events is also significantly raised.

La Niña is caused by cooling sea-surface temperatures in the tropical areas of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Its polar opposite, El Niño, is triggered by a warming of these waters and usually scorches this region with drought.

**Read more:**[Explainer - El Niño’s impact and what to expect from La Niña](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-05-09-explainer-el-ninos-impact-and-what-to-expect-from-la-nina/)

Last season, South African maize farmers reaped a bumper crop in large part because of the rains unleashed by the last La Niña. That harvest is now forecast to reach 16.12 million tonnes, 26% higher than the 2023-24 season which was hit hard by El Niño.

Like the previous event, this La Niña is forecast to be relatively weak – a stark contrast with the last El Niño, which was one of the strongest on record.

![The return of La Niña brings hope for South African maize and other grain farmers. (Photo: Dwayne Senior / Bloomberg via Getty Images)](https://cdn.dailymaverick.co.za/i/igrsfFuajqLtzdxp0q6A0zGzPZw=/200x100/smart/filters:strip_exif\(\)/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-948476666.jpg)

*The return of La Niña brings hope for South African maize and other grain farmers. (Photo: Dwayne Senior / Bloomberg via Getty Images)*

Climate change is adding its bite and the issue took centre stage on Wednesday at an agricultural conference in Pretoria organised by AgriSA.

“Spring no longer exists,” Frikkie Mare, CEO of the Red Meat Producers Association, told the conference – a reference to the emerging trend on the Highveld and elsewhere of winter being replaced by a sudden explosion of summer.

“The Highveld is already two degrees warmer than a century ago, double the global average,” Francois Engelbrecht, professor of climatology at the Global Change Institute, said via video link.

“The region is likely to become significantly drier and much hotter. This is really bad news because we are a water-stressed region.”

The upcoming summer in South Africa is forecast to be warmer than usual – but at least it is also expected to be wet.**DM**