---
title: "La Niña prospects grow, heralding wet weather along with increased risk of flooding"
description: "The latest forecast bodes cautiously well for domestic agriculture and comes after South Africa’s maize harvest last season is estimated to have reached a robust 15.8 million tonnes, 23% above the previous summer’s crop that was hit with drought triggered by a scorching El Niño."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "UPDATE"
author: "Ed Stoddard"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/ed-stoddard/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-09-30-la-nina-prospects-grow-heralding-wet-weather-along-with-increased-risk-of-flooding/"
published: "2025-09-30T19:45:46"
updated: "2025-10-01T05:37:35"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 483
---

# La Niña prospects grow, heralding wet weather along with increased risk of flooding

> The latest forecast bodes cautiously well for domestic agriculture and comes after South Africa’s maize harvest last season is estimated to have reached a robust 15.8 million tonnes, 23% above the previous summer’s crop that was hit with drought triggered by a scorching El Niño.

By Ed Stoddard · Published 30 September 2025, 21:45 SAST · Updated 1 October 2025, 07:37 SAST

## Key points
- As South Africa braces for a potential La Niña, the forecast suggests a summer of increased rainfall for the grain belt — great news for agriculture but a soggy headache for poorly drained areas.
- La Niña's likelihood has surged, with a 71% chance of formation by year-end, promising wetter conditions for South Africa's summer rainfall region.
- The South African Weather Service notes a cooling of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, indicating a shift towards La Niña effects on rainfall patterns.
- While increased rainfall is expected, some areas like Mpumalanga and Limpopo may face below-normal precipitation, raising concerns for agriculture.
- A potential bumper maize harvest could alleviate food inflation, but flooding risks remain high, particularly in poorly drained regions.

## Content

The prospects of a La Niña weather system forming before the end of this calendar year have risen significantly over the past month, a state of affairs that points to wetter-than-usual weather over South Africa’s summer rainfall region, which includes much of the grain belt.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is still in a neutral state, however it has rapidly cooled in the last month,” the South African Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead — in this case to the end of February.

The Enso cooling refers to falling sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a development that gives rise to La Niña with implications for global weather patterns.

[YouTube video: "El Nino - What is it?"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPA-KpldDVc)

“There are still some predictions that maintain a neutral state. However, a La Niña state is more likely and gaining confidence as we near the summer seasons. The usual effect of La Niña on South Africa is for an increased likelihood to receive above-normal rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country during summer,” the weather service said.

Indeed, on Monday 29 September 2025 the [US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) said that there was now a 71% chance of La Niña forming in the October to December period.

There are some qualifiers to the domestic outlook.

“There are indications that parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo may receive below-normal rainfall during this period,” the weather service said.

And in keeping with recent forecasts the outlook remains for above-normal temperatures for most of South Africa this summer — which is also a reflection of global trends.

### In a nutshell

After a blistering September across swathes of the country, things look set to really heat up while much of the summer rainfall region should get a drenching. That bodes well for dam levels and water security — at least where there is abundant rain — but is no panacea for the water woes caused by state failure and decayed infrastructure. But the hot weather will be a concern for dam levels and agriculture in areas that don’t get much rain, and that will be worrying when El Niño eventually returns.

The forecast bodes cautiously well for domestic agriculture and comes after South Africa’s maize harvest last season is estimated to have reached a robust 15.8 million tonnes, 23% above the previous summer’s crop that was hit by a scorching El Niño — La Niña’s polar opposite that typically brings drought to this region.

Another bumper harvest for the staple maize will, among other things, help to contain food inflation and provide relief to low-income households.

The weather service also warned of raised flooding risks in the months ahead, especially in areas with poor drainage systems.

At least there seems to be no signs of El Niño baring its fangs this summer. But in this global Enso weather dance, it will eventually take the stage again. **DM**

[YouTube video: "YouTube video"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REeWvTRUpMk)