A resident casts his vote in a 2024 Polokwane by-election. (Photo: Gallo Images / Philip Maeta) 
Gauteng
Ward 130 (Emdeni Naledi) Johannesburg: ANC 34% (56%) ActionSA 23% (19%) MK 22% EFF 17% (16%) PAC 3% (1%) ATM (1%) Vuka SA <1%
The setting: Ward 130 is in the far west of Soweto, on the edge of the city of Johannesburg, near Randfontein. More than half the voters in the ward are in Emdeni, while just under 40% live in Naledi.
Emdeni is overwhelmingly Zulu speaking while Naledi has more Sesotho and Setswana speakers. The “People’s Poet” Mzwakhe Mbuli hails from Naledi while amapiano star MKeyz comes from Emdeni.
The 2021 local government election: While the ANC won the ward comfortably, well off the 2016 mark of 80% of the vote. Despite slight ward boundary changes, it was still a sharp fall for the ANC. The party was still well ahead of ActionSA which came second with an impressive 19%, just ahead of the EFF in third with 16%. The EFF grew compared with 2016. The DA was a distant fourth with 3%, down from 7% in 2016.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC came first with 43% as its drop in this part of Soweto continued. This time the damage was done by uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK), especially in Emdeni. The ANC only beat MK by 92 votes when one combines the three Emdeni voting districts.
The ANC fared much better in Naledi than Emdeni where its support held up much better. The EFF also beat MK for second place in this part of Soweto.
MK still finished second, when factoring in all the voting districts in the ward, with 25%. The EFF was third with 11% and ActionSA fourth with 8%. The DA was fifth on 4%, while parties including the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) registered 1% each.
The by-election: The ward councillor, Thulani Buthelezi, was murdered in his home by gunmen. No arrests have been made. A crowded field gathered in Ward 130 for the by-election, including a new party, Vuka South Africa.
The ANC retained the ward with a reduced majority. It continued to struggle in Emdeni where MK won most of the vote when you tally the three voting districts in Emdeni, with MK topping the ANC by 96 votes. MK won the Josiah Khumalo Adult Education Centre voting district with 39% and was second in the other two Emdeni districts.
ActionSA won the Emseni Primary School district in Emdeni with 45%. It only won 20% here in 2021. In contrast, the ANC dipped from 60% to 23% to finish behind MK.
The EFF struggled in Emdeni. It won between 4% and 12% and had little appeal among Zulu-speaking voters.
The ANC fared better in Naledi, winning three of the four districts. Sparsely populated Ash Mountain in Naledi Extension 2 was critical for the party. Despite being the Naledi district with the fewest voters, the ANC won the most of the actual votes in Naledi here. It won 68% in Ash Mountain. The district also had a far higher turnout than the ward average of 31%, with 51% of registered voters coming out in Ash Mountain.
The EFF pipped the ANC at the Naledi Lutheran Church voting district. The red berets had much better returns in Naledi overall, finishing second in this part of the ward when considering the four voting districts. ActionSA finished third in Naledi, while MK finished almost 190 votes behind in fourth place. In 2024, MK beat both the EFF and ActionSA in Naledi. MK will be concerned about its Naledi returns.
The EFF easily won the voting district with the fewest voters – Doornkop, taking 63%, well up from 28% in 2021.
In the final analysis, the ANC only won half of the voting districts in the ward. While there have been some ward boundary modifications, the ward has largely remained the same. In 2011, the ANC won 89% in Ward 130, and in 2016 it declined to 80%. In 2021, this plummeted to 56% and in the by-election it was only 34%. The ANC will know that it can ill afford a performance like this in the local government election if it wants to remain the largest party in Johannesburg.
Poll: 31% (44%)
Eastern Cape
Ward 1 (Misgund Krakeelrivier) Kou-Kamma, Sarah Baartman: PA 48% (33%) ANC 43% (46%) DA 9% (21%)
The setting: Kou-Kamma is a beautiful part of the country which is protected by the Tsitsikamma mountains, sitting in the Langkloof. This area is known for its fruit farming. Misgund is the most-populous village in this ward. It is close to the Western Cape border on the R62 regional road. Other settlements are Krakeel River and Louterwater. The vast Sarah Baartman District is on the western side of the Eastern Cape. It includes the towns of Port Alfred and Jeffreys Bay.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 39% of the vote here. Both the ANC and the DA were hurt by the PA. The DA came second with 30% while the PA received an impressive 25% of the vote to finish third in a ward in which, traditionally, only the ANC and the DA have been strong.
The ANC won in Misgund, with the DA a distant third, while the DA prevailed in Krakeelrivier and the PA came out on top in little Louterwater.
The August 2024 by-election: The ward councillor passed away. The ANC held onto this seat by beating the PA by more than 300 votes. The ANC beat the PA by 53 votes in the most populous village in the ward, Misgund. The ANC’s percentage vote share fell from 59% to 49% while the PA surged from 6% to 44%. The DA’s support plummeted from 27% to 9%. Krakeelrivier was key for the ANC. It wrested this voting district from the DA, winning 49%, just up from the 48% in 2021. The DA declined from 49% to 40% and the PA from 1% to 11%. The PA will be satisfied with this growth but will know that if it had closed the gap in Krakeelrivier it could have had a shock win in the ward. The ANC garnered 385 more votes than the PA in Krakeelrivier.
The PA won 80% of the vote in Louterwater, after only getting 9% in 2021. The party beat the ANC by 137 votes as the latter fell from 41% to 8%. The DA finished second but also lost ground, moving from 33% to 12%.
The win for the ANC meant it retained outright control of Kou-Kamma.
The 2025 by-election: The new ward councillor passed away. The ANC, PA and DA signed up for a sequel after facing off in a by-election just more than 12 months ago.
The PA won its first Eastern Cape by-election by beating the ANC by 112 votes in a closely fought contest. The PA eviscerated the DA and hurt the ANC in Krakeelrivier. This was key to the PA’s victory.
In Krakeelrivier, the PA had a fivefold percentage increase, surging from 11% to 55%. The ANC fell from 49% to 30%, while the DA lost more than half of its support in the district, crashing from 40% to 15%. The PA also achieved a differential turnout advantage in Krakeelrivier. Turnout here was 61%, 5% higher than the ward average. The PA built up a 242-vote buffer in Krakeelrivier.
The ANC was again the biggest party in Misgund. It hit its 2021 mark with a 59% return, up 10%. The PA declined from 44% to 35%. The DA barely featured on 5%, losing almost half of its support here. The ANC won by 269 votes.
In Louterwater, the PA improved from 80% to 84%. Louterwater was the exclamation point for the party. The DA was able to finish second but lost ground with the ANC. The PA beat the ANC by 139 votes in a district with not many voters.
The win for the PA has ramifications for the ANC’s control of Kou-Kamma. The ANC went into the election with six of the 12 council seats. The party co-governed with an independent to give it a majority in the council. The loss means the independent is now the kingmaker since the ANC only has five seats. The DA has three and the PA two.
If the DA, the PA, the independent and the FF+ councillor were able to find each other, they could end the ANC’s rule in Kou-Kamma. However, such a coalition arrangement is much easier on paper.
Poll: 56% (61%)
Free State
Ward 7 (Kgotsong Bothaville) Nala, Lejweleputswa: ANC 50% (54%) EFF 47% (25%) NCF 3% (17%)
The setting: Kgotsong is the principal township in Bothaville. It is east of the Bothaville town centre. The town is the heart of the Free State maize belt and hosts the Nampo show every year. Wesselsbron is the other key town in Nala. Nala forms part of the Lejweleputswa district. Welkom, Theunissen and Hoopstad form part of the district.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the EFF by 396 votes. The EFF and the local Nala Community Forum (NCF) shared the runner-up spot in the two respective districts. The NCF won 22% of the vote in the Oziel Selele School district. The EFF obtained an impressive 37% in the Boikutlo School district to bring the ANC under 50% in this part of the ward.
The ANC won 12 of the 24 available council seats. The EFF carried the mantle of the official opposition with six seats, while the DA, NCF and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) won two each. The ANC was still able to get its candidate for mayor and speaker elected.
The 2024 provincial election: The absence of the NCF on the provincial ballot helped the ANC. It won 67%, with the EFF second on 22% and the DA third with 4%.
The by-election: Ward councillor Elias Ntlebi, who also served as the speaker of Nala, was fired by the ANC. He was accused of working with the opposition in Nala to weaken the ANC in the council. The by-election takes place as Nala faces considerable financial and service delivery challenges, as well as ongoing investigations into allegations of corruption and fraud.
Ntlebi was not on the ballot for the by-election. The NCF and the EFF lined up to challenge the ANC and try to get the party to lose its grip on the council, in which it holds half the available seats.
The ANC edged the EFF by 64 votes in this by-election. The latter came very close to causing a major upset. The bulk of its growth was at the expense of the NCF which all but collapsed in Kgotsong.
The ANC carried the Oziel Selele School district by 102 votes, while the EFF came first at the less-populous Boikutlo Primary School, edging the ANC by 38 votes.
While the NCF caused damage to the ANC in several parts of Nala in 2021, it also caused damage to the EFF in Ward 7. The by-election results show that the EFF won back EFF voters who voted NCF in Ward 7, as well as ANC voters who cast their ballot for the NCF in 2021. The ANC will be concerned that it was unable to win back former ANC voters.
Local parties like the NCF hurt the ANC in other parts of the Free State in 2021. The Maluti-a-Phofung (Phuthaditjhaba) and Setsoto (Ficksburg) municipalities are examples. The more established Free State parties like the ANC, DA and EFF will hope that this poor result for the NCF was not an outlier but that voters for local parties will support parties with national footprints in the next local government elections.
Poll: 63% (53%)
Limpopo
Ward 5 (Extension 1) Bela Bela, Waterberg: ANC 60% (71%) EFF 35% (11%) BRA 3% (5%) MKP 1% DAD <1%
The setting: Extension 1 is east of the Bela Bela town centre. Bela Bela is the hometown of cricketing great AB de Villiers. It is also known for the Warmbaths hot-water spring resort. It forms part of the Waterberg district which includes the towns of Mokopane and Thabazimbi.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC won by a landslide here. The EFF was the only other party to get into double percentage figures. The DA beat the Better Residents Association (BRA) for third place, finishing on 7%.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 69% of the vote, slightly down from 2021. The EFF had solid growth in the districts that make up this ward by obtaining 20%. The DA was third on 4%. MK only registered 1%.
The by-election: The ward councillor, a former mayor of Bela Bela, passed away. The ANC beat the EFF by 454 votes. The EFF made impressive inroads in an ANC Waterberg stronghold. The ANC’s vote share declined by 11% in both districts in this ward.
The EFF more than tripled its percentage vote share in the ward. Its growth was most impressive in the less-populated New Jerusalem Church voting district, surging from 14% to 41%.
Read more: By-elections hub
The EFF was the only opposition party to pose any threat to the ANC. BRA lost ground but still beat MK. MK remains on 1% compared with 2024 and has little to cheer about in Bela Bela. Defenders of African Dignity (DAD) was abandoned at the ballot box, collecting only three votes.
The ANC’s vote share in Limpopo was resolute in 2024. This result in Bela Bela suggests it has some vulnerabilities in parts of the province and that Limpopo voters have far more faith in the EFF than MK.
Poll: 50% (55%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 17 September when the DA has a tricky assignment, to defend a seat in Montclair, eThekwini, while the ANC will defend a safe seat in the Ephraim Mogale Municipality in Sekhukhune, Limpopo. These will be the last by-elections in September. DM
This article was updated on 11 September 2025 at 10am to include the differential turnout for the elections in Ward 1 (Kou-Kamma) and Ward 7 (Nala).