A worker carries out a quality control inspection of a VW Polo on the production line at the Volkswagen AG plant in Kariega, Eastern Cape. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
It’s like watching a car crash. In the first half of 2025, South African manufacturers shipped just 2,875 vehicles to the US, an 82% collapse from the 16,112 exported during the same period in 2024. This isn’t just a statistical blip; it’s the sound of an entire industry ecosystem screeching to a sudden halt.
The automotive sector, South Africa’s manufacturing heavyweight that contributed 5.3% to GDP in 2023 and supports more than half a million jobs across its value chain, is reeling from what could be described as a perfect storm of American protectionism.
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A cascading series of US tariffs that began with a 25% sectoral tariff on automobiles in April 2025, escalated through May with extended component coverage, and culminated in a sweeping 30% general tariff on all South African goods effective on Friday, 1 August 2025.
For more than two decades, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) had been the golden bridge connecting South African manufacturing prowess with American consumer appetite. In 2024, automotive products accounted for 64% of all of the country’s Agoa-based trade with the US, generating R28.6-billion in export revenue.
Diplomacy on a tight deadline
With the clock ticking towards August, President Cyril Ramaphosa has pulled out all the stops.
He personally engaged Trump, dispatched Trade Minister Parks Tau into last-ditch negotiations, and greenlit a Framework Deal that proposes duty-free quotas (40,000 vehicles annually), capped fallback tariffs (10%) and, controversially, preferential access for US LNG providers into South Africa’s energy mix.
A high-level Eastern Cape delegation even travelled to Stuttgart to plead South Africa’s case directly to Mercedes-Benz global leadership. And on Thursday, 24 July, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition signed what officials call a “condition precedent document” – not a final deal, but a placeholder pending further negotiations. As Tau’s spokesperson Kaamil Alli clarified: “The document signed is a precursor to finalising the deal. Negotiations are ongoing.”
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The US, meanwhile, insists the tariffs are justified by “unsustainable trade deficits” and “national security threats” under section 232 of its Trade Expansion Act, despite South African-built vehicles making up less than 1% of US imports. From Pretoria’s perspective, the deficit claims are more political than factual, with more than 77% of US goods entering South Africa duty-free.
High speed handbrake turn
Recognising that diplomacy may not deliver in time, South Africa is simultaneously pivoting east and inwards. The African Continental Free Trade Area is being fast-tracked as an alternative growth engine. In July, Deputy President Paul Mashatile led a trade mission to China, pitching South Africa as a springboard into Africa and wooing automotive investors like BAIC – which has still not delivered on local assembly promises at its Coega plant.
Domestically, the government is considering an expansion of the Automotive Production and Development Programme to shield local manufacturers from global shocks. The recently launched BMW X3 plug-in hybrid production line in Rosslyn is being heralded as a vote of confidence in the country’s EV ambitions. Meanwhile, a R26-billion Transformation Fund is being floated to consolidate supplier development money into more impactful pipelines.
Ramaphosa’s industrial strategy, says Tau, is rooted in “decarbonisation, diversification and digitalisation” – a three-pronged survival plan for a sector hanging by a thread.
Beyond the seven major carmakers (BMW, Ford, Isuzu, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen) it’s the component sector – 150 brands across 210 plants – that may suffer death by 1,000 cuts. These firms employ 82,000 people and supply nearly half their output directly to local assemblers. A disrupted supply chain means halted production.
A tourniquet to stop the bleeding
But the damage is already seeping through. The Automotive Business Council reports sequential declines of 73%, 80% and 85% in vehicle exports to the US for Q1, April and May 2025 respectively. Economists project a 0.3% annual GDP hit and a R40-billion hole in trade revenue.
For Mercedes-Benz’s East London plant, where almost 90% of C-class production is built for American roads, the numbers translate directly to job losses and economic fallout.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana estimates that 100,000 jobs could evaporate if a new trade deal isn’t reached. “My prayer is that we get a deal by August 1st. If not, we need an extension. This is not just numbers – it’s livelihoods,” he told Bloomberg TV.
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The National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers warns of a domino effect, with Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers – often black-owned, less diversified and undercapitalised – being first to fall. The broader concern? A permanent hollowing-out of local manufacturing capacity, one bolt at a time.
And unless something gives before 1 August, South Africa’s automotive crown jewel may not just lose its shine, it will shatter. DM