SA car sales race ahead, but exports show warning light

The auto industry in South Africa has faced an unexpectedly challenging year – US President Trump’s stop-start tariff brinkmanship caused much anxiety, and with the industry reliant on both local purchasing power as well as export demand, global uncertainty strongly affects a sector responsible for 5.2% of our country’s GDP (3.2% manufacturing, 2% retail).

However, the industry appears to be surprisingly resilient according to the latest year-on-year data provided by the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa). Issued on 1 July, the data points to surprising resilience and sustained consumer demand, with new vehicle sales up 18.7% year on year, driven primarily by passenger car demand.

 Read more: Why South Africa’s EV ambitions are still stuck in low gear

“This success was underpinned by favourable economic fundamentals, including interest rate cuts and a still-benign inflation backdrop,” said Naamsa CEO Mikel Mabasa in a press release noting the results.

Affordability remains key, driven by an influx of cost-effective Chinese-made vehicles with competitive after-sales deals.

Regarding the export markets for South Africa’s production, despite an increase in global political and trade uncertainty, the industry is still growing, but is reflecting the changes that external influences have placed on the industry.

“South Africa’s automotive industry has long relied on a thriving export engine to sustain production volumes and attract investment,” Mabasa added.

Top 15 vehicle brand sales:

Domestic sales surge, export slip

The key takeaway from the data is that domestic sales have surged (total local sales climbed to 47,294 units in June 2025), an 18.7% jump year on year from 2024.

Passenger vehicles – that is, normal cars – did the heavy lifting: 32,570 units sold, up 21.7% from June 2024. Light commercials (bakkies and minibuses) rose 14.9% year on year for the month but remain slightly down (-1.7%) for the year to date.

Exports paint a more complex picture: passenger car exports dipped 4.1% year on year, but light commercial exports jumped 44.5%, driven by batch shipments. Heavy truck and bus exports stayed mixed, showing the fragility of SA’s export backbone.

Big brands strong, new players rising

Toyota stayed firmly in pole position: 11,690 local sales and 4,247 exports. VW Group’s export dominance (12,159 units) again outpaced local sales (4,973). Ford pushed 3,058 units locally, with 7,382 exported. BMW shipped 6,744 units abroad despite only quarterly reporting.

Chinese brands, GWM and the Chery umbrella (Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo and Jetour), which have increasingly been seen on South African roads, now cluster mid-table for local sales, reflecting consumer demand for affordable SUVs.

Commercial vehicle sales hint at uneven economic recovery.

Medium and heavy trucks jumped for the month (up 24.7% and 40.7% respectively), but year-to-date heavy truck and bus sales remain below 2024 levels (-3.5% YTD). The softness ties to mining decline, stalled infrastructure rollouts and port jams.

SA vehicle exports for June: 

 What it means for SA’s auto playbook

Passenger sales strength suggests either a resilient middle-class confidence or rising consumer debt appetite, despite sticky interest rates.

With the auto industry a top industrial exporter, export softness is a flashing warning light. If global demand dips or logistics choke, local jobs and output feel it first.

 Read more: Built for export, boxed in at home — SA vehicle sector calls for decisive action

 “Strong consumer demand has helped the sector deliver impressive growth amid global turbulence,” said Mabasa.

The electric pivot remains elusive. Apart from BMW and Mercedes-Benz’s high-value exports, the domestic NEV market is embryonic. Chinese brands could disrupt that space fast. DM