Unaffordable – beef prices contribute to food inflation uptick while headline inflation remains low

Food & non-alcoholic beverages is the only category that contributed to the monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index. The monthly change in food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1.1%, following a 1.3% rise in April. 

Maverick Citizen has been tracking the prices of 14 basic food items that a consumer can buy with R370, the amount of the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant. The food basket hovers above R400, making it unaffordable for those who receive the grant as their only source of income.

Our basket decreased by R8 and sits just under R400 – still higher than the SRD’s R370, keeping in mind the basket does not include transport to withdraw the money, and electricity to cook the food. 

The food and non-alcoholic beverages category is at 4.8%, contributing 0.9 of a percentage point to headline inflation, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday, 18 June. For all urban areas, annual consumer price inflation was at 2.8% in May 2025, unchanged from 2.8% the previous month. 

The CPI increased by 0.2% month on month in May 2025. The main contributors to the 2.8% annual inflation rate were: 

Housing and utilities (4.5%, contributing 1.0 percentage point) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.3%, contributing 0.2 of a percentage point). In May 2025, the annual inflation rate for goods was 1.8%, up from 1.7% in April 2025. Services was 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April 2025.

In the latest Household Affordability Index, the month-on-month average cost of the foods prioritised and bought first in the household food basket increased by R31.77 (1.1%) from R2,923.58 in April 2025 to R2,955.34 in May 2025. 

Year on year, the average cost of the foods prioritised and bought first in the household food basket increased by R89.53 (3.1%) from R2,865.81 in May 2024 to R2,955.34 in May 2025.

“The data show that the core foods contribute 54% of the total cost of the Household Food Basket. At an average cost of R2,955.34 in May 2025, these foods are relatively very expensive in relation to the total money available in the household purse to secure food. These foods must be bought regardless of price escalations. The high cost of core staple foods results in a lot of proper, nutritious food being removed from the family plates. The consequences of high costs on the core foods have a negative impact on overall household health and wellbeing, and child development,” the Index says. 

Beef continues to push meat inflation higher

Stats SA says that meat, specifically beef, is a key factor behind the rise in food inflation. The annual rate for meat jumped from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May. In April, monthly increases for beef products ranged from 6.2% to 11.9%. In May, notable monthly increases were recorded for beef steak (up 4.5%), stewing beef (up 2.5%) and beef mince (up 1.7%). A widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, combined with higher feed prices, contributed to the rise in beef inflation.

The impact is trickling down to the pockets of consumers who will be hit by price increases. In June 2024, the average price for Class A beef was R55.45 per kg. In May 2025, the average price for Class A beef was R68.01 per kg, which is 6.3% higher than in April 2025. Year on year average prices for Class A increased by 23.2% in May 2025 compared with May 2024, according to the latest Beef Monthly Report.

Workers

Needless to say, people who receive grants are unable to purchase enough food in general, but nutritious food specifically. This also affects workers who have to prioritise getting to work, so transport, electricity and debt go first before food is bought.

The Household Affordability Index said the national minimum wage was a “poverty wage — it hurts workers, it reduces productivity in the workplace, and slows down economic growth.” This is based on their three scenarios using real-life examples of how much a taxi fare is, the average salary and other factors in specific towns, such as in Pietermaritzburg.

The maximum wage of R4,836.72 in May 2025, when disbursed in a family of four persons, is R1,209.18. 

“This is below the upper-bound poverty line of R1,634 per capita per month. Set at such a low level, the [national minimum wage] works to institutionalise the low-baseline wage regime and lock millions of workers into poverty. Small annual increments off such a low wage base (in rand-value), and which do not reflect inflation levels as experienced by workers, nor the actual cost of worker expenses (including not projecting inflation forward for workers in the entire 2025/26 term), means that workers on the [national minimum wage] are getting poorer and poorer each year,” the index says. 

The minimum shortfall on food for a family is 45% in May 2025. After paying for transport and electricity, workers are left with R2,113.75. If all this money went to food, then for a family of four, it would provide R528.44 per person per month. The Food Poverty Line is R796 per person per month.    

Rising pressure

According to the Food Inflation Brief, inflationary pressures could rise in the coming months because of uncertainty around the policy direction of the US government, and its potential impact on the exchange rate remains a key factor influencing price movements.

“Emerging market currencies, such as the rand, typically come under pressure during periods of global uncertainty. On a positive note, the rand has recently strengthened against the US dollar ahead of the Treasury’s third revision of the local budget and following the crucial bilateral meeting with the US. Although the Treasury did not increase the VAT rate, it did raise the fuel levy; a decision whose impact on consumers will become more pronounced if global oil prices rise and the rand weakens,” the brief says.

“The anticipated rebound in the new summer crop harvest could help ease staple food prices for consumers and also offer some relief to livestock producers through lower feed costs, enabling increased supply. Cost buildup in the value chain due to higher fuel costs may limit the extent of this relief.

“In the livestock and meat sector, animal disease outbreaks remain a critical risk to monitor due to their potential impact on supply and pricing,” the brief says. DM