Dailymaverick logo

South Africa

BUDGET BUST-UP ANALYSIS

GNU 2.0 loading — ‘You can’t be part of a government whose Budget you opposed,’ says Presidency

Life after the DA: Will the GNU reshuffle, shrink or shatter? We’ve got some numbers.
GNU 2.0 loading — ‘You can’t be part of a government whose Budget you opposed,’ says Presidency Illustrative image | Sources: Rawpixel | DA leader John Steenhuisen. (Photo: Stefan Wermuth / Bloomberg via Getty Images) | President Cyril Ramaphosa. (Photo: Simon Dawson / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The GNU in its current form is not likely to last, with pointed comments from the Presidency.

“You can’t be part of a government whose Budget you opposed,” said the Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya minutes after the Budget was passed without the Democratic Alliance’s support.

budget bust-up

Asked whether President Cyril Ramaphosa expected the DA to leave the GNU, Magwenya said, “Together with the leadership of his own party, he will reflect. The President will take his time.”

Asked how long he would take, Magwenya said, “He never rushes into anything.”

Meanwhile, the DA is rushing. Straight to court. Minutes after the vote on Wednesday evening (2 April), the party announced it would take the 0.5 percentage point VAT hike and the process of passing the fiscal framework document to court for review.

In this interview from late March, Deputy Finance Minister Ashor Sarupen told Daily Maverick that the Budget imbroglio would be resolved. The market fallout would be too severe if the parties did not reach a deal, he said. By Wednesday evening, Yeshiel Panchia and Ed Stoddard reported the Rand lost 30c to trade at R18.76 to the dollar while bond yields spiked almost 40 basis points.

Read more: Rand, bonds slide on GNU jitters in wake of Budget snafu

Magwenya said Ramaphosa would think about how he would move forward with a governing partner (the DA) that acted as an opposition. In the 292 days since it signed a pact to enter a power-sharing agreement with the ANC to form the GNU, the DA has struggled with being inside government and outside in opposition.

The parties have been on the brink 10 times, according to a Daily Maverick tally, and this time is the worst and most perilous for stability. For the first time, Ramaphosa is being less than conciliatory even though the GNU in its present form has support across the country and crucially, from the business community.

Within the ANC, support for the pact with the DA has never been strong, but this week the ANC became openly aggressive against it. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana told Wednesday’s sitting to pass the first phase of the Budget that, “You can’t vote against the Budget and the next day, you want to implement that Budget. We have to draw the line.”

The party’s second deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane said at a commemoration for Winnie Mandela: “In times of difficulty, the ANC may trip, but it will rise. It can’t be that those who have been historically advantaged want to trade off public service expenditure, when they want to co-govern without having been given the right to govern. We might not have been given a majority, but we have been given a percentage that makes us to be the ones who can talk to everybody.”

Read more: The Budget brouhaha and you — wallet pressure, service strain and the price of political paralysis

With a party that has turned against the current GNU, Ramaphosa will not be able to hold it together.

A senior ANC member who favoured the existing GNU said, “This happened sooner than expected.”

He said that various formal and informal attempts had been made to broker a deal with the DA to keep the power-sharing pact, but he said the party had failed to see that it had wrung important concessions. These included the reduction in VAT from a two percentage point hike to a 0.5 percentage point increase for two years of the three-year medium-term budget framework.

In addition, it had secured agreement for a major spending review where economists it chose could have served with others on a panel to shift wasteful fiscal patterns.

“They wouldn’t have walked away empty-handed.”

The graphic below shows the nine pressure points that have ensured the GNU is unlikely to reach its first anniversary in June 2025. The 10th is the Budget.

gnu fault lines

DM

Comments

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Apr 2, 2025, 10:10 PM

ANC you are powerless to do the right thing and save our poor by firing the useless and the corrupt cadres sinking our country ...because they're the only support you have left. So tragic for us all.

Ludovici DIVES Apr 2, 2025, 11:35 PM

Agree 100% ANC comes before South Africa as usual. The greed has consumed any logic that remained.

Ian Gwilt Apr 2, 2025, 11:54 PM

'The party’s second deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane said at a commemoration for Winnie Mandela: “In times of difficulty, the ANC may trip, but it will rise" This is the problem, policy led by financial/economic braindead individuals who will sing and dance but have no clue as to how the world works By the way what happened to the allegations against her from the Zondo commission ?

Hidden Name Apr 3, 2025, 07:57 AM

Quashed by the ANC, like all the other findings. Convictions arising from the Zondo commission = nearly zero. This in spite of the solid indications of wrong doing and corruption uncovered. Surprised? Not me - par for the course the ANC, sadly. Massive disappointment, that crowd are. Venal and evil. They have caused more damage to this poor country than can be easily quantified.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:00 PM

Don't ever forget, her actual name is Nomvula 'Dirty Votes' Mokonyane.

Alan Hunter Apr 3, 2025, 06:42 AM

About time for the DA to tell the autocratic parties to take a hike. Now they can run for election without the taint of government corruption.

Rod MacLeod Apr 3, 2025, 11:45 AM

Agreed. Get out of the sh!tshow before the stain becomes indelible.

Tyrone Richards Apr 3, 2025, 07:04 AM

If the DA has any shred of respectability left they will take a walk. So many have told them that the ANC cannot be trusted. As for Bosa, Rise Mzansi and Action SA … They have just confirmed that Politicians cannot be trusted.

Hidden Name Apr 3, 2025, 07:54 AM

Agree. Have to admit, I am surprised BOSA went that way - I had credited them with more integrity. ActionSA's behaviour did not surprise me at all since they are basically prostitutes for their own advantage. And I suspect after this little debacle, they are done - time will tell, I guess. As for the PA, well, what a surprise (not).

Drum Beat Apr 3, 2025, 07:16 AM

Could you not find a DA representative to give the other side of this story? Such a biased read, disappointing for this pivotal point in our path as a country.

Hidden Name Apr 3, 2025, 07:52 AM

I am not entirely sure why it is, but it seems like pretty much all media has an issue with the DA, so they tend to display a disturbing bias against them. So thats very much in character.

Karsten D Apr 3, 2025, 08:45 AM

I completely agree, there is nothing about the DA's attempt to curb wastefull expenditure, corruption and creating a more investor friendly environment and wanting to use the budget to drive these changes. Instead they are blamed for not wanting to pass a budget that enables the ANC and its cadres to continue its looting at the continued expense of the people of SA. How about a balanced article DM, the bias of some of your senior journalist is becoming problematic, favouring opinion over facts

Pet Bug Apr 3, 2025, 09:56 AM

That is why I will not donate any money to the DM. They’re writers and the whole outfit is biased, always this sneering ridiculing of the DA - read Rebecca’s contribution(!) - but worse is they are content censors. DM refused to publish Dr Anthea Jeffrey’s response to their darling Stephen Grootes article on no alternative to BEE. She said there are, but that doesn’t fit into DMs narrative.

megapode Apr 3, 2025, 12:54 PM

"That is why I will not donate any money to the DM." Well this is interesting. DM says their comments section is now only open to "insiders" IE paying supporters.

Jubilee 1516 Apr 3, 2025, 09:21 AM

Well said, DM is a real anti-DA voice. Let alone their incoherent attacks at Afriforum,

Dennis de Necker Apr 3, 2025, 07:32 AM

Either agree or get off the bus......the road to self-destruction is paved with egos that fuel the fire of discontent.

Karl Sittlinger Apr 3, 2025, 07:50 AM

It's absolutely ok to disagree and stay on the bus. As for egos, it's really mainly the ANCs ego and drive to corruption that is the cause of all of this.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 08:11 AM

Probably gonna be an unpopular view on here, but if the DA did try to bring in all the extra-budgetary issues into the process, they overplayed their hand. NHI is in the courts already, I'm sure Expropriation will be challenged as well (if not already?), ditto the BELA Act. So why try to force these issues using a budget process? Surely a more tactical approach, like speeding up port and rail concessions, the mining cadastre and public works programmes would have been better wins?

Karl Sittlinger Apr 3, 2025, 09:06 AM

Thing is though, we have no idea what the DA actually asked for. Not like any DM article bothered to find out. From what I can see the DA requests had nothing to do with BELA, and when it came to the EWC act it was merely to allow the courts to have final say BEFORE the expropriation can take effect. Port and rail devolution, saving on government expenditure, all directly impact our economy and hence are very valid topics. Maybe DM would be so kind to actually find out what the DA asked for?

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:06 PM

It would be great if DM could publish a table of all the key positions of all the parties on the budget - as tabled - so we can see what everyone wanted, was prepared to be flexible on, and where the 'red lines' were. I have a feeling that a lot of this intrasigence (on all sides) is being driven by factions within parties who want the red lines to be reached to cripple the GNU, and it looks like they're getting there. I'd rather the DA stayed in the GNU and carried on its good work.

megapode Apr 3, 2025, 12:43 PM

Well this seems to be the where the split in this case lies: ANC are taking a narrow view - we're sitting down to talk about the BUDGET. DA taking a broader view - we'll give you some support on the budget but we need concessions on all these non-budget issues. You're right that all those matters are curently subject to various challenges.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:10 PM

Agreed on the narrow vs broad view - which is why trying to get everything was never going to work: it's a coalition, so try and work at policies or changes that aren't going to scupper everything, will make a meaningful impact on growth and job creation, and let the rest wait until afterwards. Smaller wins vs nothing. I know what I'd opt for.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 08:11 AM

Probably gonna be an unpopular view on here, but if the DA did try to bring in all the extra-budgetary issues into the process, they overplayed their hand. NHI is in the courts already, I'm sure Expropriation will be challenged as well (if not already?), ditto the BELA Act. So why try to force these issues using a budget process? Surely a more tactical approach, like speeding up port and rail concessions, the mining cadastre and public works programmes would have been better wins?

Rae Earl Apr 3, 2025, 08:30 AM

The ANC has refused to share the load with the DA. The refusal to grant it any of the power portfolios which have been chronically mishandled by the ANC since 1994 is a case in point. With their scintillating credentials in running the Western Cape while being opposed on every front to extending this nationally, the DA was forced to finally confront a party which is riddled with corrupt and inept ministers. SA is bankrupt and has no future under ANC, EFF, or MK leadership however contrived.

keith.ciorovich Apr 3, 2025, 09:39 AM

Unfortunately true.

Jill Davies Apr 3, 2025, 10:14 AM

I take my hat off to the DA. I have such admiration for them having to deal with all those ANC ministers as I cannot forget all the Zondo commision revelations. Unfortunately, I still remember all the disgraceful implications of most of them. To have to see and listen them to them and their self-important spoutings, usually whilst dressed in versions of green and gold, when they should actually be dressed in orange outfits - the President included, is quite a challenge for me!

megapode Apr 3, 2025, 12:56 PM

The ANC didn't win a majority but they still have a plurality (and more of the popular vote than Labour has in the UK). They are going to be the biggest partners in any sharing arrangement. So of course they are going to want to retain the key positions for themselves.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:14 PM

100% agreed they needed to confront the rotten ANC. It's a question of how and what you can extract that's the major worry I have. The DA has played its hand and it appears to be a busted flush: they got nothing and may very well be out of the GNU soon, which would be devastating given the great work being initiated by Ministers McPherson, Gwarube and Schreiber that give us hope for the future.

Jobst Bodenstein Apr 3, 2025, 09:16 AM

Everybody and all political parties are losers here The establishment of GNU presented a unique opportunity for a reset of interparty politics to coalesce and to embark on a joint new economic and soco-political course, providing employment and improving the lives of the poorest But then the ANC, despite its election losses, went solo ignoring it's GNU partners The DA overplayed it's hand bringing external issues into the budget debate, knowing fully that this would jeopardize GNU Shame on you

Karl Sittlinger Apr 3, 2025, 09:47 AM

This mess is not the DAs fault. The ANC has negotiated in bad faith from the get go and not in any way taken any steps towards the DA. The few ministerial positions the DA has gotten are all showing major improvements over the the ANC 20 plus years of failure. Asking to reign in expenditure and allowing courts to have final say on expropriation is hardly unreasonable.

Carsten Rasch Apr 3, 2025, 10:25 AM

what external issues?

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:16 PM

Agreed. Intrasigence on both sides of the pissing contest, and we, the public got soaked as a result.

Ludovici DIVES Apr 3, 2025, 01:49 PM

The DA are the only party in my opinion that retain their integrity, they are 100% correct in refusing any VAT increases to continue funding ANC incompetence, corruption and patronage.

Jubilee 1516 Apr 3, 2025, 09:19 AM

What the DA and FF+ thought they would accomplish by teaming up with Marxists is a mystery to me. Especially with weaklings like Mashaba, Trollip, IFP being your battle mates.

Jon Quirk Apr 3, 2025, 09:27 AM

The root cause of all this is the abject failure of the Ramaphosa regime, to take any action arising from the Zondo Commission and the July 2021 uprising, which the President himself labelled treasonous. The upshot is that virtually all the seriously delinquent members, are still in Parliament, in various parties including the ANC, MKK and the EFF. Root and branch rooting out of all the corrupt is now desperately needed as there are clear signs that the miscreants are re-grouping.

Carsten Rasch Apr 3, 2025, 10:23 AM

It's the ANC and it's unbelievably arrogant leadership that needs to come to terms with the fact that it lost the election, and accept that it cannot pass budgets without it's partners' support. It's the corrupt ANC that needs to understand that it cannot keep 'governing' the way it has for 30 years, because it has destroyed the country. DESTROYED! It's our spineless President that has to concede the above, and DO THE RIGHT THING.

megapode Apr 3, 2025, 01:01 PM

The broad strokes of the budget just got passed without DA support.

Gazeley Walker Apr 3, 2025, 11:09 AM

Can DM please balance this article by publishing the DA side of the story with as much enthusiasm and detail as this ANC hymn sheet? It is also concerns me that members of the minor parties within the GNU who voted for the motion will pay a big price for deserting the people they represent. Anyone who saw Mashaba's SABC interview could not have failed to recognize how devious this green chameleon is. "I don't want a ministerial post, but if they force me I will unwillingly accept"

megapode Apr 3, 2025, 12:52 PM

The quotes about the DA having won concessions is striking. I know it's not all they wanted, but this is often the way it is when bargaining. Everybody gets some of what they wanted. Particularly in coalitions. The DA surely could have done better PR on this: Look, we pushed back and won these concessions. And the public needs to understand that this is the way things go in coalitions - parties don't get to keep all their promises all the time.

D'Esprit Dan Apr 3, 2025, 01:19 PM

Better job in total, not just PR. I'm tired of politics by PR!

superjase Apr 4, 2025, 12:49 PM

The DA (and others) must catch a wake-up. If they don't like the budget then don't vote for it. Those that approve of it vote for it, those that don't vote against it. That's how parliament works. They were party to the negotiations and managed to get some major concessions, but acted like they were the ones who should get all that they wanted (despite being a minor partner - the ANC won almost twice the support that the DA did). They will find themselves with almost no power soon.

Nicoleen Schuld Apr 6, 2025, 02:50 PM

What is "all" they wanted? Inform ys of the "all" the DA wanted. Sounds like you have important info that DM journalists do not have or are not sharing