Kagame threatens SA as SANDF forces remain beleaguered in DRC and peace efforts falter

After two phone calls between the two presidents this week,  Kagame posted a belligerent message on X on Wednesday in which he accused Ramaphosa of lying and distortion and issued a veiled threat of military aggression. 

He said he had spoken twice to Ramaphosa on the phone this week, and  denied that Ramaphosa had warned him that South Africa would attack Rwanda if it attacked South African troops in the DRC. He appeared to be responding to a statement to this effect by Defence Minister Angie Motshekga. 

Kagame said that what Ramaphosa had done, rather, was to ask him “for support to ensure the South African force has adequate electricity, food and water, which we shall help communicate”.

Kagame said what had been communicated about his conversations with Ramaphosa in the media, by South African officials and by Ramaphosa himself, “contains a lot of distortion, deliberate attacks, and even lies”.

He appeared to be largely annoyed by the South African government’s repeated claims that Rwanda was supporting the M23 and that the M23 and Rwanda had precipitated the latest fighting by attacking the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), which most of the SANDF troops are part of, though some are in the UN peacekeeping force Monusco. Kagame also seemed annoyed that South African officials were describing SAMIDRC as a “peacekeeping force”. 

“SAMIDRC is not a peacekeeping force, and it has no place in this situation,” Kagame said. “It was authorised by SADC as a belligerent force engaging in offensive combat operations to help the DRC government fight against its own people, working alongside genocidal armed groups like FDLR which target Rwanda, while also threatening to take the war to Rwanda itself.”

Read more: SADC leaders likely to withdraw forces from DRC, including SANDF

Kagame also made the extraordinary claim that “President Ramaphosa confirmed to me that M23 did not kill the soldiers from South Africa, FARDC did”.

It seems highly unlikely that Ramaphosa would have said that, although Kagame may have been referring to the deaths of the three SANDF soldiers at Goma airport on Monday, who were caught in a mortar crossfire between DRC troops and the M23/Rwanda.

What is likely is that some SANDF troops may have died or suffered injuries because DRC troops surrendered in large numbers to M23/Rwanda, leaving the South African troops exposed. 

Kagame added ominously: “South Africa is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator. And if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.” 

This appeared to be a threat of renewed military action against South Africa, although Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo told Radio 702 on Thursday that Kagame only meant that he would set the record straight about what South Africa was saying about the conflict. 

Thirteen South African soldiers have been killed in fighting with the M23 rebels, heavily backed by Rwanda, in a week. The last deaths were on Monday when a mortar, apparently fired between M23/Rwandan forces and DRC forces, landed on the SANDF base near Goma airport.

Read more: Air force and army chiefs blasted for playing golf while SA soldiers die in DRC

And the troops seem to remain vulnerable, although Motshekga told a press conference on Wednesday that the SANDF had not been involved in any fighting for 48 hours before that. She suggested a truce between SANDF forces and M23/Rwanda at the SANDF’s base at Sake, to allow M23/Rwanda to remove its dead from the battlefield and the SANDF to receive supplies, was holding. She denied at a conference the reports that the South African troops in the DRC had run short of ammunition and other supplies. She said had visited the SANDF base at Goma before the fighting started and they had not complained of a lack of ammunition and other supplies.

She also said Ramaphosa had warned Rwanda that the SANDF forces would attack Rwandan forces if they attacked the SANDF – the remark which appeared to antagonise Kagame. 

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict faltered on Wednesday as DRC President Felix Tshisekedi missed a summit of the East African Community which Kenyan President William Ruto called to address the warfare. The EAC called for an immediate ceasefire and for Tshisekedi to talk directly to the M23, which he has so far refused to do. The leaders also agreed to hold a joint summit with the SADC to address the crisis.

The SADC was due to hold its own summit on Friday in Harare to try to seek an end to the fighting. Pretoria sources told Daily Maverick that Tshisekedi had asked the SADC to reinforce SAMIDRC so as to continue the fight against the M23 and Rwanda. But the sources said there was “no appetite for that”. It was more likely that the leaders would agree to withdraw SAMIDRC from the DRC, but to do so gradually and in an orderly way since a “haphazard” withdrawal would damage the SADC’s credibility and jeopardise its ability to conduct future intervention missions. 

It is a moot point, though, whether that has not already happened. 

“This is the end of South Africa as a regional power for the next decade at least,” Darren Olivier, a defence expert at the African Defence Review, told Daily Maverick.

South Africa’s position that Rwanda is backing the M23 militarily and that is the main cause of the conflict, is widely supported, including at the United Nations where the Security Council demanded, after a meeting on Sunday, that Rwanda immediately withdraw from the DRC. DM