An Iranian woman holds her identification documents in line for the presidential election at a polling station in Haram Saleh, north of Tehran, on 28 June. The election will go to a runoff on 5 July after a record-low voter turnout failed to yield an outright winner. (Photo: Majid Saeedi / Getty Images) Iran’s snap presidential election will go to a runoff on 5 July, pitting a reformist against an anti-Western hardliner, after a record-low voter turnout failed to yield an outright winner.
A steady, if ugly, tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah since the October outbreak of the Gaza war has been shifting into something more alarming. Record numbers of Hezbollah projectiles — some 900 — have hit Israel this month and its chief says he’s overwhelmed by volunteers ready to fight Israel “without any rules, restraints or ceiling.” Israel, meanwhile, is carrying out deeper and more destructive attacks in Lebanon and its northern military command has just approved a battle plan for the country.
Netanyahu vows to fight on as mediators seek new path to talks
Israel was committed to fighting Hamas until the Iran-backed militant group was eliminated and all the other goals of the war were achieved, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday.
The Israeli leader spoke after an Axios report on Saturday that the Biden administration has circulated amended language for some elements of its proposed deal on hostage releases and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Axios cited three people with direct knowledge who weren’t identified.
Israel’s goals continued to include freeing the remaining hostages held in Gaza and ensuring the area never constituted a threat to Israel again, Netanyahu said at the start of a weekly Cabinet meeting.
The Israeli government also aimed to restore security in the areas bordering Gaza and Lebanon so that residents can safely return to their homes, he said.
Read more: Israel and Hezbollah lurch closer to full-blown war in Lebanon
“To whoever doubts the achieving of these goals, I reiterate: there is no substitute for victory. We will not end the war until we achieve all of these goals,” said Netanyahu.
Israel has been at war with Hamas since 7 October, when the group, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US and Europe, invaded southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages to Gaza. About 120 are still held in Gaza.
Some 37,000 people have been killed in the ensuing war, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which doesn’t differentiate between civilians and combatants.
There was no change in Israel’s position on hostage releases outlined this month by US President Joe Biden, Netanyahu said, adding: “Hamas is the only obstacle to the release of our hostages.”
In its report on Saturday, Axios said the US was working with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to make changes to what would be up for discussion in the first stage of a proposed three-stage peace deal, in a effort to get both Israel and Hamas on board.
Iran presidential vote heads to runoff after record low turnout
Iran’s snap presidential election will go to a runoff on 5 July, pitting a reformist against an anti-Western hardliner, after a record-low voter turnout failed to yield an outright winner.
Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former health minister and heart surgeon, was in the lead according to the latest vote count, announced by Iranian state TV on Saturday, ahead of 58-year-old former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.
Despite his surge in overnight vote counting, Pezeshkian remained shy of the 50% of votes required for a decisive first-round win.
Read more: Heart surgeon, Tehran mayor contend for Iran’s presidency
The runoff is scheduled for 5 July, with candidates allowed to campaign until the morning of 4 July, according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency.
According to state TV, 24.5 million of Iran’s 61.4 million eligible voters cast their ballots on Friday, setting a record low turnout for a presidential election in the Islamic Republic.
It was the third time in a row that a major political ballot in Iran had plumbed new low levels of participation, a reflection of the fact that the religious establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has faced unprecedented levels of opposition and dissent in recent years.
The 2021 presidential election had a turnout of 48.8% and propelled hard-line cleric Ebrahim Raisi — whose death last month in a helicopter crash triggered Friday’s election — into office.
Israel and Hezbollah lurch closer to war
North Israel is a series of ghost towns — abandoned houses and scorched forests from Hezbollah missiles. Parts of south Lebanon have been hit so hard by Israeli bombs that they’ve been reduced to rubble. Tens of thousands of residents have been driven from homes on both sides.
A steady, if ugly, tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah since the October outbreak of the Gaza war has been shifting into something more alarming.
Record numbers of Hezbollah projectiles — some 900 — have hit Israel this month and its chief says he’s overwhelmed by volunteers ready to fight Israel “without any rules, restraints or ceiling.” Israel, meanwhile, is carrying out deeper and more destructive attacks in Lebanon and its northern military command has just approved a battle plan for the country.
While Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel say they do not want a full-blown war, concern is higher than ever they’re stumbling into one — or will deliberately start one. Israelis advocating it believe that such a conflict could be kept short, a matter of weeks. Others are far more pessimistic.
The Middle East could be in for “a major regional war, rising oil prices and plunging financial markets”, Aaron David Miller, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow and former State Department Arab-Israeli negotiator, told Bloomberg TV. “No one wants to see anything like that.”
Senior US and French diplomats have visited Jerusalem and Beirut as part of an intense push to stave off an escalation that could draw in Iran, along with its allied militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen as well as the US.
The plan to end hostilities hinges on Hezbollah moving its fighters from the border. While UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006 after the last round of combat between Israel and Hezbollah, requires it to be some 30km, negotiations are starting with 10km. They would be replaced by international forces and members of the Lebanese army while a panel would address disputes over the shared boundary line.
But Hezbollah says the current round of tension has a source — the war in Gaza — and a solution — a Gaza ceasefire. Only once Israel and Hamas put down their arms, Hezbollah says, will it be open to its own border negotiations.
“One rash move, one miscalculation could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the borders and, frankly, beyond imagination,” warned United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres last week. “Let’s be clear. The people of the region and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”
Parallels with Gaza are inevitable and real: Hamas and Hezbollah, viewed as terrorist groups by the US, are heavily backed by Iran. Both consider Israel illegitimate and their conflict with it to be holy and existential. And just as Hamas in Gaza was born in the 1980s as a militant movement challenging Israeli occupation, so too was Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But important distinctions mean war with Hezbollah would be even more devastating.
The group is much more important to Iran than Hamas. And as traumatic as the 7 October attack by Hamas was for Israel, Hezbollah is a much more powerful military force.
Through intense focus and preparation over the past 18 years, it has assembled perhaps 100,000 men while amassing 150,000 rockets and missiles, about half of which can reach major Israeli cities, along with a growing arsenal of attack drones.
Israel’s lauded air defence systems — Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow — would be overwhelmed by a Hezbollah assault expected to amount to 3,000 rockets a day for weeks — especially if it were joined by other militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Power stations, offshore gas rigs, military bases, airports and thousands of ordinary citizens would be at risk, as illustrated in a video released by Hezbollah last week showing drone footage of key facilities that it would target.
Pressure on the economy would be immense. The chief economist of Israel’s finance ministry estimates GDP growth rate would fall from a current 1.9% to -1.5% because of reserve recruitment and disruptions to infrastructure and education, and that would likely lead to a further credit downgrade for the country.
On the other side of the border, the picture would be even more grim, starting from a much more dire place.
Neighbourhoods in southern Lebanese villages, including Aita Al-Shaab, Aytaroun and Khiyam, have been levelled by Israeli air strikes, prompting thousands of people to flee and straining an economy still reeling from a financial meltdown four years ago that saw the country default on its Eurobonds for the first time in its history and the currency collapse.
When the 2006 war ended after 34 days, Arab Gulf countries pledged billions to help Lebanon rebuild infrastructure including airports, ports, telecom towers, power plants and bridges as far as 140km from the border with Israel.
The Lebanese public isn’t interested in another round of combat, which would bring more death, injury and damage that might never be repaired. It’s a different Middle East today. Saudi Arabia — once a key donor with significant influence in Lebanese politics — has lost interest, leaving Shiite Muslims led by Hezbollah to become the unrivalled power in the country.
Read More: Iran’s ‘crown jewel’ has much to lose from total war with Israel
“I don’t think any of the potential belligerents actually want to see a war or conflict spread,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week, but like Guterres, he noted that a miscalculation or misunderstanding could set one off.
Apart from its diplomats, Biden’s administration is using its supply chain — slowing weapons deliveries to Israel — to try to avoid a broader conflict. It is assuring Israel of help if war erupts while stopping short of promising all-out support.
In truth, Israel wouldn’t want to open a second front until its campaign against Hamas in Gaza is over. That could be weeks or months.
Yet Israelis consider Hezbollah’s barrage of rockets and missiles to be acts of pure aggression. So, Netanyahu would have broad public support for his threats to push Hezbollah away from the border, despite all the risks. DM
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