Conservative Party messaging at a news conference responding to the Labour Party general election manifesto in London, UK, on Friday, June 14, 2024. As of Thursday, Labour was on 44.1% versus 22.4% for the Conservatives in Bloomberg's rolling 14-day average using data from 11 polling companies. (Photo: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg) A report in the Sunday Times that a senior Conservative official made dozens of bets with bookmakers that Sunak would call a July election means four prominent Tories have now been accused of trying to profit by gambling on its timing.
There are serious concerns at the top of the Tory party that other prominent figures may be drawn into the affair, with just 10 days to go until the election, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The scandal — dubbed Gamble-gate in the British media — is threatening to dominate the remainder of the campaign at a time when Sunak’s Tories badly need to make up ground. Opinion polls show Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is firmly on course for an historic victory in the 4 July election, while internal Tory polling suggests the opposition party could win a parliamentary majority as high as 200 seats.
Two weeks ago, Craig Williams, a Tory candidate who acted as Sunak’s parliamentary aide, admitted to betting on the election date shortly before the premier announced it. Since then, another candidate and two staff members at Conservative headquarters have been named in the media as having bet on the date. A police officer who worked in Sunak’s close protection team was also arrested on suspicion of misconduct.
Sunak said last week that he was “incredibly angry” at the developments, but he’s facing criticism because he hasn’t suspended any of the accused Tories from their positions. The premier and his Cabinet are likely to face questions from reporters over the coming days about who else may have wagered on the election date, and whether any laws governing the use of inside information in gambling might have been broken.
The Gambling Commission, which regulates wagering in Britain, said in a statement on Sunday night that it was “investigating the possibility of offenses concerning the date of the election”. It said its probe was “ongoing” and declined to name how many people it is looking into, or disclose their identities. The Conservative Party also said it was unable to provide any details on the advice of the Gambling Commission.
Labour’s Pat McFadden, the Shadow Cabinet Office minister, wrote to the Commission on Sunday afternoon calling on the regulator to name those it’s investigating. “The public will be rightly appalled that anyone close to the decision to call the election would use inside information to bet on an outcome they knew in advance,” he wrote.
Speaking to the Sunday Times, Cabinet member Michael Gove compared the story to the so-called Partygate scandal involving former premier Boris Johnson and his aides breaking lockdown rules during the Covid pandemic.
Read More: The Week That Rishi Sunak’s July Election Bet Seemed to Go Bust
The story, which polling by YouGov suggests is cutting through to voters, comes as Sunak’s campaign team is ramping up its field operation to try to shore up the core Conservative vote in rural and southern England, a defensive move that appears aimed at reducing the scale of defeat to Labour.
On Monday, the Tories are expected to campaign against the clean-air policies of London Mayor Sadiq Khan in a bid to win votes from drivers. Labour, for its part, is reiterating its commitment to improve the provision of dentistry by the National Health Service.
Monday afternoon, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and her would-be replacement, Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds, are taking part in a debate hosted by Bloomberg in London.
COMING UP: The Business Debate
With just days left to the UK general election, @KemiBadenoch and @jreynoldsMP go head-to-head in a special Bloomberg debate on Monday https://t.co/9sa1C6kIXP pic.twitter.com/gem0kKql8c
— Bloomberg UK (@BloombergUK) June 23, 2024
The Tory campaign will also hope to capitalise on a row over fresh comments made by Nigel Farage, the Brexit campaigner whose right-wing Reform UK party’s surge in the polls is a key factor in predictions of a dire Tory election result.
In a BBC interview on 21 June, Farage said the West had “provoked” Russia’s war in Ukraine due to the eastward expansion of NATO. In remarks to be aired on ITV on Monday evening, the Reform leader repeated the claim and called for negotiations to end the war.
Both major parties condemned Farage’s comments over the weekend. Sunak said they were “completely wrong” and warned they played into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Starmer said Farage’s words were “disgraceful”.