It’s Cyril as President again – but for how long?

The 71-year old will be inaugurated into his second full term on Wednesday 19 June in Pretoria, after winning the nod from the newly-constituted National Assembly with 283  votes.

Ramaphosa’s retention of his position is intimately linked to the wider political deal-making which has seen the ANC enter into a government of national unity with the DA, the IFP, and possibly other smaller parties.

The DA wanted to work with the ANC under the leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa, while other potential coalition partners, and in particular the EFF and the MK party, had indicated that there could be no political marriage with the ANC if Ramaphosa stayed on.

But ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula came straight out of the gates at the IEC’s results centre, before all votes had even been tallied, to tell journalists that the removal of Ramaphosa was a non-starter.

That principle effectively constrained the ANC’s ability to make deals to ensure the quantum of support necessary in the National Assembly.

President…but for how long?

The South African Constitution prevents state presidents from holding power for more than two full terms; Ramaphosa initially completed the unfinished term of his successor Jacob Zuma, which does not count towards the two terms.

As such, he could technically hold power until the next general elections in 2029.

A spanner in the works, however, is likely to be the next ANC electoral conference – scheduled for 2027. 

There are no term limits to the ANC presidency, so theoretically Ramaphosa could stand for election to the top post of his party once again. It is considered unlikely that he would want to, however - and aside from his personal feelings on the matter, it is also possible that the voting delegates of the ANC could punish him for the newly-announced co-governance arrangement with the DA and IFP.

Ramaphosa, then, may have a mere three years left on this new presidential tenure in real terms – since historically, the ANC has not favoured a situation where a candidate has been defeated for the party leadership but stays on as state president.

These are, however, unprecedented political times.

Ramaphosa still enjoys support

Knives are normally out for political leaders in charge at the time when their parties suffer major electoral losses, and the ANC’s disastrous performance at the polls on 29 May will be Ramaphosa’s cross to bear.

Before the elections, however, ANC internal polling suggested that Ramaphosa was more popular with the South African public than the ANC itself, and that he also enjoyed higher approval ratings than any other domestic political leader.

Financial indicators on Friday also suggested that the markets were generally soothed by the notion that Ramaphosa would stay on as president.

But there are still likely to be storm clouds ahead for Ramaphosa.

In the days after the elections, a number of internal ANC structures made their unhappiness clear at the idea of a DA-ANC political collaboration, as did the trade union federation Cosatu - which threatened to leave the tripartite alliance if such a coalition came to pass.

Ramaphosa will have his work cut out to smooth over this kind of discontent. And wolves will be circling beyond his party too: Freedom Front Plus leader Pieter Groenewald has already said that he intends to try to place a robust Phala Phala inquiry back on the parliamentary agenda now that the ANC has lost its parliamentary majority.

That is a situation which would present an awkward conundrum for the party’s new governance partners, the DA, which has previously insisted that Ramaphosa should face more intense scrutiny over the Phala Phala situation. DM