MK party in Parliament? It’s all about Zuma — nothing more, nothing less

A series of polls over the past few weeks indicated that uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK party) could become the third-biggest party in Parliament after the general election on 29 May. Some polls suggested that it could be the biggest party in KwaZulu-Natal, even if it wins just a quarter of the vote there.

It is worth injecting a note of caution here.

Polling is a relatively small industry in South Africa and several of the polls have been published by organisations which could be accused of bias.

At the same time, the best-resourced polling is done by the two biggest parties, the ANC and the DA. They do not make their polling public unless they feel there is a good political reason to do so.

ActionSA chair Michael Beaumont has a point when he suggests that a Brenthurst Foundation poll “paints the picture of a surging MKP at 13% — a practical impossibility for a party whose support is almost entirely limited to KZN and Mpumalanga”, and that this is “helpful to paint a narrative of DA growth and a useful stick to whip out the vote against the threat of a growing left alliance”.

However, the fact is that the MK party is well organised and appears to be well resourced.

Just one example: Lampposts in Randburg in Gauteng feature easily as many MK posters as they do posters for the ANC, the EFF and “Emigration sales”. The images of Zuma on these posters appear eerily like pictures the ANC and government once used and evoke memories of the time he was in office.

The fact that Zuma is addressing large crowds in different places certainly indicates that he is building momentum.

All this follows the testimony and the findings which placed him at the centre of State Capture, a period the ANC once referred to as “nine wasted years”.

How to explain this?

First, Zuma was easily the dominant political figure from 2005 until Valentine’s Day in 2018, when he was unceremoniously pushed out of the presidency. During that time he built up networks and patronage. And of course, he has immense name recognition.

Also, as previously discussed, his ethnic identity is an important factor, particularly in KZN.

Then there is our present lived reality. Most people in South Africa are poorer in real terms than they were when Zuma left office.

Looking for a saviour

Saftu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi recently repeated his apology for supporting Zuma in the period leading up to 2007, saying it was the biggest mistake of his life.

When asked why Zuma has so much support now, he told SAfm that people are so desperate that, “Faced with this crisis, they turn around to look for some saviour, including the people whose hands are dripping with blood in terms of creating the conditions that we are faced with today.”

Zuma repeatedly said that he “ended load shedding” when he was in office.

Of course, this is simply not true and a court found that the people who were running Eskom while Zuma was president helped create the current situation.

Vavi is correct when he says many people are desperate in South Africa. Who can blame them? Cyril Ramaphosa came into office promising major changes and to improve the running of the state.

Instead, the opposite has happened: the state has become weaker, violence has increased, crime has risen across the board and levels of poverty have gone up dramatically.

So, what could happen if MK does come third in the elections, and the party’s figures descend on Parliament in significant numbers?

If the MK does do well, it would be at the expense of the ANC, the EFF and the IFP. This may make the EFF too weak to be a useful coalition partner for the ANC. Certainly, if the EFF does lose votes to MK, its bargaining position will be weaker.

But, considering that Zuma is the leader of MK, it seems impossible for the ANC and MK to form any kind of coalition or working relationship.

Strange bedfellows

If the ANC does fall dramatically below 50%, it will have limited options.

It would not be able to work with MK, and the EFF may not have enough support to be a viable coalition partner, so what option would be left?

Strangely, it might well be the DA.

That party could do slightly better than previously expected, with the rise of Zuma increasing turnout for the DA among the white middle class.

As odd as it seems now, it may well be the figure of Zuma that forces the ANC into working with a party it has always rejected.

At the same time, it is still not certain who MK will have to represent it in Parliament and the provincial legislatures. The Electoral Commission has not yet released the parties’ candidate lists.

However, it is unlikely that many of the MK representatives will have experience in legislatures. And, considering that the party has, up till now, no defined policy or manifesto of ideas, it is not clear in which direction they would go in crucial parliamentary votes.

Unless there is a surprise, no major party will work with MK, apart from perhaps the EFF, and smaller parties like the ATM.

Of course, the level of organisation behind MK has already taken many by surprise (including the ANC). Its list may well reveal experienced and disciplined candidates. However, at the moment, there is no evidence that this will happen.

At the same time, MK is unlikely to be around for long. It is, for the moment at least, centred entirely around Zuma. He is almost 82 years old. It seems impossible to imagine that he could contest an election at the age of 87 in 2029 and that MK would survive without him.

All of this suggests that MK’s biggest contribution after the election would simply be to make the picture more chaotic and confusing. Unless a proper manifesto of policies and a list of experienced candidates emerges, it is hard to see what other role the party will play.

Which strengthens the perception that MK is all about Zuma. Nothing less and nothing more. DM