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UKRAINE UPDATE: 12 DECEMBER 2023

Zelensky to meet Biden, US legislators in bid to unlock aid; Kyiv shoots down Russian drones and missiles

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was headed to Washington for talks with President Joe Biden and US congressional leaders, signalling a push to energise support among his country’s allies almost two years into Russia’s invasion.
Bloomberg
Bloomberg-Ukraine-Update12/12 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during the inauguration of Javier Milei as president of Argentina in Buenos Aires on 10 December 2023. European Union member states are growing frustrated with Hungary’s attempt to block funding for Ukraine and obstruct the opening of EU accession talks. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Matias Martin Campaya)

European Union member states are growing frustrated with Hungary’s attempt to block funding for Ukraine and obstruct the opening of accession talks, just as US funding for Kyiv is also in doubt.

Russia targeted southern Ukraine with 18 drones and launched eight ballistic missiles at the Kyiv region in an attack lasting into the early hours of Monday. All were deflected, according to Ukraine’s air force.  

Latest developments

EU countries slam Hungary for opposing aid, accession to Ukraine

European Union member states are growing frustrated with Hungary’s attempt to block funding for Ukraine and obstruct the opening of accession talks, risking a showdown at a meeting of its leaders just as US funding for Kyiv is also in doubt. 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has twice written to the head of the European Council, warning him to drop Ukraine membership talks from the agenda of the summit, which takes place on Thursday and Friday. He’s also been unwilling to back a €50-billion  support package for Kyiv. 

The government in Budapest continued to block all issues related to Ukraine at a meeting of EU ambassadors over the weekend, souring the anticipation that an agreement would be reached later this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The only way I can read the Hungarian position, not just on Ukraine but on many other issues, is that they’re against Europe and everything that Europe stands for,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters ahead of a meeting with his counterparts in Brussels on Monday.

The impasse in Brussels comes during a critical week for Ukraine. With US President Joe Biden’s request for further military assistance stalled in Congress and Hungary continuing to block EU support for Ukraine, Kyiv may be left empty-handed after EU leaders meet later this week and US lawmakers leave for their holiday break on 15 December.

Such a scenario would mark a turning point in Western support for Ukraine with newly committed military assistance already at its lowest level since the invasion began almost two years ago. It may also embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been betting that Kyiv’s allies would eventually grow fatigued.   

For Ukraine, “the mother of all decisions” will be whether member states agree to open the accession talks at the summit, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters ahead of the meeting in Brussels. 

“I cannot imagine, I don’t even want to talk about the devastating consequences that will occur should the council fail to make this decision,” he added.

Kuleba said he would meet his Hungarian counterpart on the sidelines of the gathering of foreign ministers to press for clarity on its position, given Ukraine is implementing reforms, including those requested by Budapest related to national minorities.  

Hungary’s leader has argued in recent weeks that Ukraine isn’t ready for EU membership and said the bloc’s leaders needed to rethink their overall strategy toward Kyiv before taking any new decisions. He’s also proposed the EU develop a strategic partnership with Ukraine instead.

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told reporters that Hungary’s position has “been very, very deplorable over the course of the past months”, stressing that “it’s crucial that we keep on aiding Ukraine for as long as it’s needed.” 

The EU is separately working on a 12th package of sanctions against Russia, including plans to ban Russian diamonds and measures to better enforce the price cap on Russian oil.

Zelensky to meet Biden, US legislators in bid to unlock aid

Zelensky was headed to Washington for talks with President Joe Biden and US congressional leaders, signalling a push to energise support among his country’s allies almost two years into Russia’s invasion.

With Biden’s request for further military assistance to Kyiv stalled in Congress, the Ukrainian president was to make his case on Capitol Hill and at the White House on Tuesday at a key juncture in his fight to regain Russian-occupied territory.

“As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s urgent needs and the vital importance of the United States’ continued support at this critical moment,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said on Sunday.

Continued US military support has hit a snag as senators struggle to reach a compromise on US-Mexico border policy changes that Republicans insist are needed for assistance to Ukraine to pass both houses of Congress. 

With legislators scheduled to leave Washington at the end of the week for the holiday break, Senate negotiators said on Sunday that differences persisted.

Zelensky has said his country’s counteroffensive this year didn’t achieve its goals because allies failed to provide hoped-for weapons. A relentless ground war in eastern and southern Ukraine is heading into the winter as Zelensky deals with a troop shortage, uncertainty over military aid and divisions within the EU.

Argentina to host Ukraine summit as Zelensky woos Global South

Argentina agreed to host a summit with Latin American leaders early next year as Zelensky seeks to win support from the Global South in the war with Russia, Ukraine said.

Zelensky discussed the summit with Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei, on Sunday in Buenos Aires, Ihor Zhovkva, the Ukrainian leader’s deputy chief of staff for foreign affairs, said in a phone interview. Milei’s press office declined to comment.

“We had a substantial conversation,” Zhovkva said. “We discussed lots of things from Ukraine’s peace formula to bilateral cooperation.” 

Ukraine’s president has sought to build international support for a framework for potential peace talks and a lasting deal, though prospects have dimmed as Kyiv’s counteroffensive grinds to a standstill and signals emerge that once-enthusiastic support from allies is waning.  

Zelensky made the nearly 13,000km trip to Buenos Aires to attend Milei’s inauguration and met with counterparts from Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay. He also had a brief exchange with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to try to persuade him to drop his objections to moving forward Ukraine’s accession talks with the European Union. 

Ukraine’s economic growth slows in second quarter of expansion

Ukraine’s economy notched up a second straight quarter of expansion, though growth slowed in comparison with the three months through June.

Gross domestic product rose by 9.3% in July-September on the previous year, compared with 19.5% in the second quarter, according to data published by the State Statistics Office on Monday. Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.7% from the second quarter.

Ukraine’s economy was battered last year after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, but the central bank in October raised its estimate for growth this year to 4.9%, up from a previous forecast of 2.9%. Policymakers have started reducing interest rates and wartime controls amid the resumption of growth. 

“Should all the previous statistics office’s estimates be correct, the economy appears to have grown 5.7% in January-September or even more,” said Oleksandr Parashchiy, research director at Kyiv-based Concorde Capital. “That’s not bad, given that we forecast more than 6% for the year.” DM

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