Illustrative image | Sources: A woman casts her vote in Alexandra township, Johannesburg, on 1 November 2021. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Kim Ludbrook) | Rawpixel 
An Ipsos poll suggests that ANC support is 43% of SA’s registered voters, while a trifecta of polls released in the past fortnight predicted a loss for the governing party if an election were held now.
A Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll released last Friday suggests that ANC support had declined to 45% from 52% between July and October (on a 66% voter turnout), while The Brenthurst Foundation found the ANC would get 43% (on a high turnout) and 45% (on a low turnout), averaging at 41%.
Load shedding, a cost-of-living crisis and joblessness are the most significant factors that cast a shadow over the governing party’s chances of retaining power after the 2024 election.
The polls all asked how representative samples of voters would cast their ballot if an election were held the next day. Polls are not predictions but sentiments in the run-up to the general election, which is likely to be held between May and August next year.
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As election campaigns get into gear, the picture will change, says Ipsos public affairs director Dr Mari Harris. The Ipsos face-to-face poll of 3,600 people, the largest of the three, was in the field in June and July, while the Brenthurst and Social Research Foundation polls were telephonic and more current.
“In general, South Africans are not happy with government; in fact, they are not happy with political parties, full stop,” Harris said.
“About 42.3 million South Africans aged 18 years or older are eligible to vote. But as of October 25, only 26,214,764 are registered to vote (a current participation rate of 62%). This is unless an extraordinary effort is made by the IEC, political parties, other institutions, the media and concerned individuals to boost this number and motivate South Africans to register to vote,” said Harris.
The DA polled at 20% (Ipsos), 31% (SRF) and 24-27% (Brenthurst, depending on turnouts).
The Multi-Party Charter (MPC, a coalition of seven parties comprising the DA, Inkatha, ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus and three new parties) makes a promising debut. In the Ipsos poll, it would get more than 30% if an election were held tomorrow. Brenthurst believes the MPC’s chances are higher at 36%.
But this pact is vying to form a coalition government, so it is still well short of its ambitions, and its new party partners still need to be discovered by the average voter.
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The ANC’s chances are better with a low voter turnout as more urban voters stay away than their rural counterparts. Like many liberation movements, the ANC is now becoming a rural party. The EFF shows solid gains across the three polls, with the most varied support across urban, rural, age and gendered populations.
The governing party is very good at transporting voters and bringing out the rural vote.
“Voter turnout will play a significant role on election day, and multiple analyses suggest that expecting a high turnout may not be realistic, due to prevailing sentiment. Conversely, a low voter turnout could work to the advantage of the ANC, possibly even pushing ANC support above the 50% mark.
“Currently, the most plausible voter turnout falls within the range of 45% to 50%, with ANC support in a similar range; and both the DA and EFF showing support levels in the region of 18% to 22%,” Harris says. DM