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Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey

A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.
Bloomberg
By Bloomberg
24 Jul
US Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise In Sign Of Consumer ResilienceA pullback in key consumer price metrics have helped fuel the shift in sentiment.

Some 71% of respondents reported such an outlook in results of the poll, published Monday. That marks a sharp turnaround from NABE’s previous survey in April, which showed an almost even split between those forecasting a downturn and those who were not.More than one in four respondents in the July survey put the chance of a recession in the next year at 25% or less.

Ongoing strength in the labor market and a pullback in key consumer price metrics have helped fuel the shift in sentiment. While economists have in recent months repeatedly altered their forecasts for when a potential recession may begin, the NABE survey results suggest many may now be changing their minds altogether on the inevitability of one.

Read More: US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts

A greater share of survey respondents, who are employed at firms across a number of industries, reported improved profit margins at their companies, and an increased share also said they were passing some or all of recent cost increases on to consumers.

Inflation-related metrics were mixed. While a majority of respondents reported that wages were unchanged at their companies in the second quarter, 49% reported rising prices in that period — up from 40% in the April poll. A greater share of panelists also expect prices to rise in the next three months.

The survey reflects responses from 52 NABE members, collected between June 30 and July 12.

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