---
title: "Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey"
description: "A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "Newsdeck"
author: "Bloomberg"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/bloomberg/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-07-24-economists-see-us-recession-odds-at-50-or-less-in-new-survey/"
published: "2023-07-24T18:28:14"
updated: "2023-07-24T18:30:44"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 240
---

# Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey

> A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.

By Bloomberg · Published 24 July 2023, 20:28 SAST · Updated 24 July 2023, 20:30 SAST

## Key points
- Amidst mixed metrics for inflation and increasing consumer prices, NABE survey results suggest that economists may be changing their minds on the inevitability of a recession.
- 71% of respondents in the July survey predict no recession in the next year.
- Strength in the labour market and a pullback in consumer prices have contributed to this shift.
- 49% of respondents reported rising prices in Q2, with expectations for further increases in Q3.
- The survey was conducted between June 30 and July 12 by 52 NABE members.

## Content

Some 71% of respondents reported such an outlook in results of the poll, published Monday. That marks a sharp turnaround from NABE’s previous survey in April, which showed an almost even split between those forecasting a downturn and those who were not.More than one in four respondents in the July survey put the chance of a recession in the next year at 25% or less.

Ongoing strength in the labor market and a pullback in key consumer price metrics have helped fuel the shift in sentiment. While economists have in recent months [repeatedly](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-17/changing-recession-predictions-give-soft-landing-advocates-hope) altered their forecasts for when a potential recession may begin, the NABE survey results suggest many may now be changing their minds altogether on the inevitability of one.

Read More: [US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/us-recession-becomes-closer-call-as-economists-rethink-forecasts)

A greater share of survey respondents, who are employed at firms across a number of industries, reported improved profit margins at their companies, and an increased share also said they were passing some or all of recent cost increases on to consumers.

Inflation-related metrics were mixed. While a majority of respondents reported that wages were unchanged at their companies in the second quarter, 49% reported rising prices in that period — up from 40% in the April poll. A greater share of panelists also expect prices to rise in the next three months.

The survey reflects responses from 52 NABE members, collected between June 30 and July 12.