The Turkey flagged TQ Samsunhe, the last grain ship that left a Ukrainian port since Russia exit the Grain Corridor Agreement one day earlier, is seen in the Marmara Sea, in Istanbul, Turkey, 18 July 2023. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Sedat Suna) 
Futures in Chicago rose 1.3% after advancing almost 9% at one point in the previous session, the biggest increase since 2012. Russia’s Ministry of Defence warned that all vessels in the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo starting on Thursday.
The warning came just days after Russia ended the Black Sea grain deal that kept Ukrainian exports flowing through the corridor. Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are a vital artery for its sales abroad — historically accounting for the bulk of shipments — and the harvest season is now under way. The corridor’s closure could slow the next crop getting to market.
Reduced availability of grain from Ukraine means less export availability during the crucial Black Sea harvest period, said Dennis Voznesenski, a senior agriculture analyst at Rabobank Group in Sydney.
“In the long term, it means more grain stockpiled in Ukraine, which leads to lower Ukrainian prices, lower Ukrainian farm margins and lower planting,” he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had said earlier that his country was studying options to get the grain corridor open again, including convoys for ships, according to the Interfax news service.
Zelensky also said Russia had intentionally attacked grain-deal infrastructure overnight as he ordered his military to boost port defences and diplomats to step up contacts with partners to continue exports of crops.
In Washington, National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said “we have information that the Russian military may expand their targeting of Ukrainian grain facilities to include attacks against civilian shipping in the Black Sea”.
The Biden administration announced $1.3-billion in new military assistance for Ukraine, although the weapons still have to be put under contract and produced so they won’t arrive as soon as materiel drawn from Pentagon stockpiles.
The latest package includes four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, mine-clearing equipment and Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will be participating in next month’s summit of BRICS leaders in South Africa online rather than in person, resolving a potential dilemma for that country’s authorities over whether to execute an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest. DM