Business Maverick

Business Maverick

Treasuries, US Stock Futures Reflect Debt Progress: Markets Wrap

Treasuries, US Stock Futures Reflect Debt Progress: Markets Wrap
The entrance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022.

Treasuries and US stock futures reflected hopes that Congress will pass a debt-accord to head off a default as White House and Republican congressional leaders stepped up lobbying in support of the deal.

Near-maturity Treasury bills rallied in Asian hours as trading resumed Tuesday after the US markets were closed for Memorial Day. More broadly, Treasury yields declined across the curve on debt dated from five years to 30 years.

Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. European futures made small gains and the picture across Asian equity markets was mixed.

The dollar, which has benefited from angst around the statutory borrowing limit, slightly fell, with an index of greenback sitting comfortably below the two-month high set last week.

June Maturity T-Bill Yields Come Off Recent Highs

Stocks in Japan fell, Australia’s benchmark was little changed and equities in South Korea advanced. Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. surged to the highest in more than a year after Morgan Stanley raised price targets for the Korean chipmakers, with SK Hynix its top pick as a key beneficiary of Nvidia Corp.’s AI opportunity.

A key gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares opened higher, after on Monday coming within a whisker of a bear market. Shanghai’s benchmark index fell. A wobbling economic recovery, intensifying geopolitical tensions and a weaker yuan have been keeping global investors away from Chinese markets.

A rebound for its equities would require a monetary catalyst or improving ties between Beijing and Washington, in addition to rosier macro data, said Hebe Chen, market analyst for IG Markets. “It’s probably safe to say this reopening has lost its steam,” she said.

Read More:
Treasury Bills Climb as Traders Back Congress to Pass Debt Deal
Gold Near Lowest Since March Before Vote on US Debt-Ceiling Deal
Third Point, Moore Led Hedge Funds Buying Alibaba Last Quarter

Environmentalists, defense hawks and conservative hard-liners have condemned concessions made by President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to reach an accord on the debt ceiling. Biden has been personally calling lawmakers to support the bill, which is due to be voted on by the House on Wednesday.

For Federal Reserve policymakers, details of the deal will be another consideration when they meet in June.

“We believe this deal cements a 25 basis point hike at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting. With banking sector stresses fading, a potential default was really the only thing that could have prevented a hike next month,” Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a note. “More importantly, rates cuts by year-end are now totally priced out, as they should have been long ago.”

Assuming Congress approves the deal, the Treasury Department may soon replenish its cash balance and sell more than $1 trillion of bills through the end of the third quarter, according to some estimates.

“There is a significant potential for a liquidity drain in the system that is certainly not constructive for risk markets,” Vishwanath Tirupattur, chief fixed income strategist at Morgan Stanley, said on Bloomberg Television.

In commodities, oil rose and gold remained near its lowest level since mid-March as demand waned for haven assets following the US debt deal.

MLIV Pulse Survey – WFH edition
Would you quit your job if your employer started requiring more time in the office? Share your views here.

Key events this week:

  • Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Tuesday
  • US consumer confidence, Tuesday
  • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin interviewed by NABE as part of monetary policy webinar series, Tuesday
  • China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
  • US job openings, Wednesday
  • Fed issues Beige Book economic survey, Wednesday
  • Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has fireside chat on the global macro-economy and monetary conditions, Wednesday
  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speak in Boston, Wednesday.
  • ECB issues financial stability review, Wednesday
  • China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Thursday
  • Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, CPI, unemployment, Thursday
  • US construction spending, initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, light vehicle sales, Thursday
  • ECB issues report its May 3-4 monetary policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at German savings banks conference, Thursday
  • Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on economic outlook at NABE’s webinar, Thursday
  • US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 10:42 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% on Friday
  • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.6%
  • Japan’s Topix fell 0.7%
  • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3%
  • The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
  • The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0722
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 140.03 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0804 per dollar
  • The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.6554

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $27,781.5
  • Ether rose 0.3% to $1,898.9

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.76%
  • Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.430%
  • Australia’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.65%

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $73.22 a barrel
  • Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Gallery

Comments - Please in order to comment.

Please peer review 3 community comments before your comment can be posted