---
title: "Another Covid-like pandemic could hit the world within 10 years"
description: "There’s a 27.5% chance a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 could take place in the next decade as viruses emerge more frequently, with rapid vaccine rollout the key to reducing fatalities, according to a predictive health analytics firm."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "Business Maverick"
author: "Bloomberg"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/bloomberg/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-04-14-another-covid-like-pandemic-could-hit-the-world-within-10-years/"
published: "2023-04-14T05:28:36"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 242
---

# Another Covid-like pandemic could hit the world within 10 years

> There’s a 27.5% chance a pandemic as deadly as Covid-19 could take place in the next decade as viruses emerge more frequently, with rapid vaccine rollout the key to reducing fatalities, according to a predictive health analytics firm.

By Bloomberg · Published 14 April 2023, 07:28 SAST

## Key points
- Daily Maverick: With effective pandemic preparedness, the chances of another deadly outbreak could be reduced to a mere 8.1%. But without it, we could be looking at 15,000 UK deaths in a single day.
- Climate change and international travel increase pandemic risk
- Effective vaccines can reduce the chance of a deadly pandemic to 8.1%
- A bird flu-type virus could kill 15,000 people in the UK in one day
- Urgent need for pandemic preparedness measures

## Content

Climate change, growth in international travel, increasing populations and the threat posed by zoonotic diseases contribute to the risk, according to London-based Airfinity Ltd.

But if effective vaccines are rolled out 100 days after the discovery of a new pathogen, the likelihood of a deadly pandemic drops to 8.1%, according to the firm’s [modelling](https://www.airfinity.com/articles/a-strong-pandemic-defence-system-could-reduce-the-chance-of-another-covid).

In a worst-case scenario, a bird flu-type virus that mutates to allow human-to-human transmission could kill as many as 15,000 people in the UK in a single day, Airfinity said.

With the world now [living with](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-03/what-ending-us-covid-emergency-means-for-vaccines-tests-drugs) Covid-19, health experts are turning their attention to preparing for the next potential global threat. The past two decades have already seen three major coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS and Covid-19 emerge, as well as the swine flu pandemic in 2009.

The rapid spread of the H5N1 [bird flu](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-03/bird-flu-human-to-human-transmission-ruled-out-in-cambodia) strain is already stoking concerns. While so far just a small number of people have been infected and there are no signs of it having made the jump to human-to-human transmission, skyrocketing rates in birds and increasing incursions in mammals have [led to concern](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/uk-health-officials-model-bird-flu-scenarios-amid-global-spread) among scientists and governments that the virus may be mutating in ways that could make it easier to spread.

Many high-risk pathogens like MERS and zika don’t have approved vaccines or treatments, and existing surveillance policies are unlikely to detect a new pandemic in a timely manner, highlighting the urgent need for pandemic preparedness measures, Airfinity said. **BM/DM**