AFTER THE BELL
Smoke, Mirrors: Naval Exercise Mosi II is a Potemkin village
If the South Africans participating in Exercise Mosi II are impressed they would, I suspect, be falling for one of the oldest tricks in the book.
It’s odd how embarrassing news has a way of leaking out in phases. First, you get the broad picture; then the focus is refined; then the real discomfiting stuff finally comes out.
In the case of Mosi II, the naval exercise between SA, Russia and China, the first impression was that it was going to be a limited affair involving two frigates.
Now it turns out that three SA vessels will be taking part from the SA side, that the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov is going to demonstrate Russia’s “unstoppable” Zircon (Tsirkon) missile, and that a second Russian vessel will participate. In addition, it turns out the Chinese will be sending not one, but three vessels: the destroyer Huainan, the guided-missile frigate Rizhao and the supply ship Kekexilihu.
So from a minor exercise, Mosi II is turning out to be a pretty full-on military fandango. The event is being held on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, so it’s clearly a propaganda event aimed at bolstering support for the invasion. South Africa’s pretence of being in favour of a negotiated solution to the Ukraine crisis dissolves with this exercise.
There is no doubt that a two-week exercise involving at least nine vessels is a serious undertaking. But unless the South Africans are completely naive, it’s also an opportunity to try to impress on SA the huge capacity of Russia’s new military hardware. You could call it, practise “shock and awe”.
Yet, if the South Africans participating are impressed they would, I suspect, be falling for one of the oldest tricks in the book. We know the story: during a visit by Empress Catherine II to Crimea in 1787, Russian governor Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin supposedly constructed fake settlements to conceal the dilapidated conditions of the towns. The effort became known as a “Potemkin Village”, a ruse involving the construction of painted façades to mimic real villages, full of happy, well-fed people, for visiting officials to see.
There is no doubt that the Zircon is an impressive weapon. It’s a hypersonic cruise missile that can reach speeds of Mach 8, which means it flies too fast to be detected by radar, and too fast for existing countermeasures to be effective. Unlike an ICBM, it flies low and uses a scram-jet propulsion system.
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But there are a bunch of problems here. The fact that it can’t be detected by radar almost means it cannot use onboard sensors to track a target vessel in the main flight stage. The hypersonic speed creates a plasma shield, which affects both incoming and outgoing radar. Being hypersonic, it has to fly higher than normal cruise missiles, and its payload is possibly less impressive than advertised.
But the essential challenge is this: it is a very expensive naval weapon and the conflict in Ukraine is largely a ground war. That’s one of the reasons why Admiral Gorshkov is goofing off around Richards Bay instead of being actively involved in the war.
The Royal United Services Institute, the UK’s leading defence and security think tank, concludes that “fielding the Zircon will do little to change Russia’s immediate fortunes in its ongoing war”. This is because the vessels carrying the missile cannot be redeployed to the theatre of combat around Ukraine via the Bosphorus Strait and even if they were, there are few targets within Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure to justify the use of limited numbers of very expensive missiles.
In some ways, this is a good example of the story of the Ukraine invasion. Russia has theoretically got lots of great equipment, but we see little of it on the battlefield. What we see are many missiles designed a decade ago flying more or less at random into civilian buildings, a strategy that South Africa is now shamefully implicitly endorsing. And on the ground we are seeing “meat grinder” tactics last used in World War 1.
Theoretically, Russia also has a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the SU-57. But they are invisible in the conflict, and it turns out that they are essentially experimental planes. What is working on the battlefield are two US-made weapons, the Himars artillery rocket system and Javelin anti-tank missiles. They are not the “latest and greatest” but there is no end to the number of missiles available, because, unlike Russia, the US can make zillions. The result is that Russia’s huge advantage in tanks and artillery has been neutralised and the battlefield is in stasis.
There is another Potemkin village operating here and that is the SA Navy. For this exercise, although the support vessels are South African-made, the essential firepower will be provided by a German-made frigate. I strongly suspect that the Germans will not be supplying that service again any time soon. The SA National Defence Force is now effectively persona non grata in the militaries of the West, and I suspect, among the actually non-aligned, notably Brazil and India.
In addition, the SA military is now completely broke; the once flourishing local defence industry is either bankrupt or sold after being extensively caught up in Guptagate; and the military leadership is made up of, well, I don’t know, but nobody serious.
Mosi is the Sotho word for smoke (uMusi in isiZulu), and trust me, there is a lot of smoke and mirrors going on here. DM/BM
- An earlier version of this story stated that Brazil took part in Mosi I, but in fact it did not. Apologies for the error.
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Embarrassing to be a part of this propaganda exercise
I see yesterday the Russians boasting about having a foreign policy alternative to the West
You can be sure that this will be headlined.
Moskva. Going once, going twice…
The diesel to get those 3 ships to Richardsbay would probably be the difference of an Eskom black-out stage for a few days. I know our boys in blue need some sea-time, especially the captains, because floating around in False Bay doesn’t really count: it’s more like a sleep-out than an exercise – but this exercise is going to cost us much much more than diesel and a few almost valueless Ronts.
“Unlike an ICBM, it flies low and uses a scram-jet propulsion system” then in next paragraph, “Being hypersonic, it has to fly higher than normal cruise missiles, ”
Which is it?
How can it be, in our constitutional order (which requires all state action to be rational and justifiable in a free a democratic society), that our navy is cooperating with the Russian military – an organisation involved in the commission of international crimes?
There are so many things that make me proud to be South African. Our overtures with Russia and China does not. I agree about the “Potemkin village” analogy. We are spineless pretenders. Our country is in dire need for our leaders to “discover” our moral compass.
I feel such shame to be lumped into a South Africa that supports this horror show. For Ukraine’s sake, at least our country’s support of Russia is pretty damn useless.
ICBM means intercontinental BALLISTIC missile which has a high trajectory.
A cruise missile flies very low, over sea or land.
The C in ICBM does not stand for cruise.
No doubt Russia is paying off some of our corrupt politicians for even considering this stupid exercise. how much fuel is being expended to get these ships up to Richards bay when Eskom cant even afford the diesel to run generators on land?
This country is being run by gangsters and halfwits!
Honestly, how are the SA coal-fired paddle boats going to keep up? If the Russian ships are anything like their “super advanced was ships” that have already been sunk by Ukraine, then this is going to be a demonstration of mutton dressed as lamb.
I am so ashamed.
Our leaders are like children in the playground playing at being leaders
Interesting question whether the Germans will continue to service the equipment they sold us. I was speaking to a marine millwright this morning. He told me that the Chinese are being used for some maintenance on these vessels. That was the reason given to him when he applied for work at the naval dockyard. I cannot verify if that is true, but it does not seem implausible.
SA shooting itself in the foot! Not at all glamorous being in bed with the Ruskies.
South Africa is making itself a pariah. Buttering up to two mad dictators. Countries where there is no democracy. Where citizens are treated like fodder. It reflects how desperate the totally useless failure of an ANC government is to pretend they have some relevance somewhere. They are irrelevant. And turning South African citizens into irrelevant fodder as they accelerate their descent into madness.
Money either changed hands under Zuma and we owe the Commies big time, or money has just changed hands and some cadres are placing thier orders for some new capitalist luxury sudan. Remember the Russion RoRo that Lady R docked secrectly in Simonstown and loaded and off loaded we dont know what in the middle . I suspect a few dollars incoming for Lootfreely House and the cadres! Still no word from our Min of Defence as promised.
Great analogy, and nothing that is new to this South African government. They have been dressing things up for decades. What an embarrassment to our country they are.
Nice article but one thing not true: Potemkin [Russian pronunciation approx Potyemkin] was as close the Catherine the Great as diplomatically possible. I’ve had special interest in Catherine because she was born in East Prussia and was part of my ancestral family, including General Friederich von Stutterheim. I think her birth was Louise – but how it works in Royal families is that when young Peter the Great – a complete prat whose favourite hobby was playing with his little army of (lead) soldiers – it’s been speculated that his clear deficit in – like thinking department: clearly no responsible parent today would encourage their child to obsess for any period of time. Poor Louise/Catherine was subsequuent to thorough inspection and duly approved as appropriate spouse for young Peter the Great, was then waved away from her family in obviously quite a train to St Petersburg and married off with due pomp and ceremony to Peter the Great – still fondling his little lead army then and well into his mercifully short-ish marriage to Kate the Great. Apparently no Great deal in the bedroom department, Pete and Kate nonetheless managed to produced an heir – also called Pete like his dad – at which Pete the Elder went on and had fun playing his second-favourite hobby, which was basically drinking and causing shit. According to the established law of consequences following actions, Pete finally got what was coming his way, and died of being clobbered death jail. 19 characters left bye
RSC – Russia, SA, China
Ridiculously Stupid Cooperation.
Don’t need to be an Einstein to see the (low) level of decision-making ability involved on SA side to participate! Well done Brazil and India!
The exercise is an act of desperation with no strategic value to the country but fruitless and wasteful expenditure that has corruption in it. We will bring those involved to justice for abuse of our funds as the ANC will not be forever in power.
The Russians have lost in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa and they are involved with despots, military juntas and thieves. This futile public relations exercise, is to point a middle finger to the international community that voted to have Russian assets to pay for reparations in Ukraine including for the war effort by Ukraine. Nothing will be achieved by the exercise for South Africa and in the future years we will be looking to imprison for the thieves involved. Russia has to learn that war in the 21st century is barbarism and has no place in the world. They must learn that cheap stunts will not win them friends or the war. They are being routed in Ukraine as we speak and by the end of the year it would be counting casualties in hundreds of thousands and billions of dollars in lost equipment. They will not win the war and the world will never allow them.
Call it rather the “Putin Village” to which we are subscribing. Another subscriber is Donald Trump who famously described Putin as a “genius” and “savvy” over the invasion of Ukraine. We have found ourselves some rather strange bedfellows and one thing Ramaphosa and the ANC need to understand is that black lives do not matter to either. No lives matter in fact – what don’t we understand about Bucha. About Mariupol. About missiles raining down continually on civilian targets. Ukrainians can at least take comfort from our utter ineptitude – our lights are going out even without a Zircon missile aimed our way!
Not surprisingly the ANC is oblivious to the long term impact on this country of them pandering to their BRICS cronies.
They are confusing blindly supporting Putin’s war, an unjust war driven by his revisionist history, ego and thick headedness with showing gratitude for the important part Russian support played in the struggle.
You could not even make this stuff up – its straight from the script of a political satire or a bad comedy. the ANC is selling SA down the economic and political river by aligning this country with dictatorial autocrats. Sickening.
Wonder why the Indian navy is not here ?
Maybe when BRICS meets soon, here , the CCP will offer to ‘upgrade ‘ our ports .
Using Chinese labour and materials .
Might even super Yacht Noord come visit 🙂
Catherine the Great (born 1729, also known as Cath II) of Potemkin fame never knew, far less married Peter the Great (died 1727, a k a Peter I). She married a rather different Peter III, and Peter the Great Married a rather different Catherine I!
Excellent analysis of a shameful display, although I must question the description of Mosi II as a naval exercise “between” SA, Russia and China. There is such an exercise, but I believe that, whatever the defence ministry would have us believe, SA’s participation is largely that of an observer, and not as a partner. Our navy barely floats, so should it attempt any manouevres in open waters with these big guns they’ll just be getting the way. Like the namesake of the Great Dane statue in Simons Town: “Just Nuisance.”
One big Question ???
How is it, will sombody explain to me desperately !
Where are our demonstrations, where are our voices, why are we sitting on our backsides, making derogatary remarks, like mumbling idiots. ??? Why are wenot making our voices Loud and Clear, marching with placards and slogans ? Why arevwe not protesting screaming our discontent from rooftops????
Why are we not demonstrating to our Govt. and the Russians and Chinese, we, the voters ,inhabitants, taxpayers, ratepayers. citizens, making it very koud , vusual and clear, and to show our dismay at the government of our once beloved Country,
WE PPOTEST THIS UNION AND DO NOT IN ANY WAY SUPPORT IT !!
Someone please explain why we just wrir remarks to Daily Maverick.
We absolutly deserve whatever follows this cherade !! Are we spielss jelly fish, paoer tigers, or just happy to be Fodder for ANC cadres ??? Need answers ??? I am just mortified at our collective uselessness in this very big opertunity, to let the rest of the world know,WE ORDINARY SOUTH AFRICANS, DO NOT SUPPORT ORR AGREE TO THIS HAPPENING INOUR COUNTRY , OUR WATERS, ANDVDO NOT CONDONE OUR GOVT’S ACTIONS. !!!!
Not having any ‘military’ knowledge … the only thing I see is an “arms deal – II” in the making ? The first was not bad enough because it lined the pockets of ‘western’ suppliers while bankrupting us ! This new one would ‘correct’ that mistake … and hopefully be followed by an ANC inspired “state capture – II” … with Zondo out of the picture by then !
And then the General cancelled the event, due to ‘the weather and the safety of the spectators’. Should we be laughing or crying?