WAR GAMES OP-ED
The Smoke that Blunders — Russia, China and SA navy exercise is immoral, stupid and impractical
The confirmation that South Africa’s navy is going to exercise with its Russian and Chinese counterparts next month is as immoral as it is plain stupid and impractical. It highlights just how far SA has strayed from its relationships with Western allies, though this relationship, it seems, was based on wishful thinking rather than the reality of the ANC’s recent history.
Two Russian warships and vessels from China are expected in Durban for a 10-day drill in mid-February in naval gunnery, force protection and air defence exercises. Apparently, the exercise will carry the same name — “Mosi” or “Smoke” — as the previous exercise between the three countries. Perhaps it should be called “The Smoke that Blunders”.
Which is not to make light of it. It’s immoral, given that Ukraine is fighting for its survival against Russian aggression. Most South Africans recognise this, with three-quarters recently polled condemning the Russian invasion, and more than 80% saying that South Africa should offer support to a country invaded by its neighbour.
What exactly can be learnt from Russia’s logistically incompetent, demoralising military leadership other than how to mistreat your troops and fire missiles at blocks of civilian flats, is unclear. At least China could teach us how to intimidate small neighbours by ignoring international conventions on territorial waters. It seems to do that quite competently in the South China Sea.
It’s impractical because South Africa’s international exercises test competent operational navies. Warships must be able to float, move and fight.
South Africa’s surface assets can float. But there is no evidence that the vessels acquired under the infamous Arms Deal — four frigates and three submarines — are operational. There has not been, reportedly, a submarine at sail for many months, and naval experts suggest that South Africa can only put one frigate to sea, but in a marginal, constabulary role only.
And it’s plain stupid because this will cost South Africa by adding a premium of uncertainty to its reliability as a Western partner, a reputation already pummelled by rolling blackouts, State Capture and general disorder. As such it’s an act of political and economic denial.
Humouring dodgy autocracies
Russia is a negligible destination for South African exports. The West (US, UK, Europe and others) is by far the dominant destination, followed by Africa, China and India. Trying to retain these favourable relationships by humouring dodgy autocracies does not seem like a smart strategy.
Why Pretoria would choose to do this at this time in the middle of a war with Ukraine is puzzling, unless it was completely sold ideologically, or deliberately wanted to test or spike the relationship with the West, though there may be other, more commercial, ulterior motives.
Western observers have responded with concern, particularly since the exercise is coming soon after the Russian ammunition supply vessel Lady R’s shady call to Simon’s Town naval base.
But Western agencies effectively took their eye off the ball a long time ago, where wishful thinking about South Africa’s trajectory trumped rational analysis, perhaps in the hope that it was better to try to kick the relationship can down the road in the hope that things might change rather than confront the reality that the ANC was no foul-weather friend.
They cannot say that they were not warned. This decision is entirely true to form, following South Africa’s constant abstentions on UN votes against Russia, and the visit by Lady R. It was true to Pretoria’s BRICS membership and its routine praise of Cuba while pounding Washington.
Similarly, when President Cyril Ramaphosa recently visited London, he banged on, tone-deaf, about reparations for historical industrial emissions rather than seeking to build a narrative of South Africa as a reliable partner and trusted home for Western savings.
There is an even greater cost to this stupidity than South Africa’s relations with these critical trade and investment partners. This makes hollow the claims that Ramaphosa’s fresh ANC mandate will see the suppressed reformer in him break free. On the contrary, it makes him look confused, compromised or weak, and either controlled or, worse still, a believer in the Russia/China option.
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Most of all, choosing to carry out the exercise at this time should remind South Africans of the serious risks posed by the war in Ukraine — less by Russia, or the West, but by the ANC itself.
It highlights exactly why South Africans should be scared of a Putin victory, since this is the model that seems to attract many in today’s ANC: like Putin’s Russia, where there is a façade of democracy without accountability, the media is compromised, party and personal interests trump institutions and freedoms, and where the law of the jungle outdoes the rule of law. It is not a land of justice, freedom and a better life for all, but rather one defined by greed, violence, fear and the whiff of polonium.
This is precisely why Russia must, for the sake of Africans, lose in Ukraine.
As for these naval “exercises”, they obviously have nothing to do with actual military learning. They are all about signalling the virtue of undemocratic autocracies and backing the agent of a globally condemned invasion.
Given the lack of any genuine military purpose, the victory will be Russia’s, a demonstration that it openly enjoys the support of South Africa, once a bright beacon of democracy and now a flickering light of failure. DM
Mills and Hartley are with The Brenthurst Foundation. www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org
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We have, in the ANC, a most stupid, immoral, hypocritical, corrupt and treacherous bunch of idiots around. You have hit the nail in the head – their DNA and creed is like the vile Putin and his putrid regime ie a veneer of democracy masking a criminal, rapacious and predatory syndicate, sucking the life and blood of its citizens. Disgusting, shameful and disgraceful in the extreme. I sincerely hope the West reacts and bans the buffoon and idiot that Cyril and his obnoxious government are next time they come calling around with his begging bowl.
Not smart Cyril – I assume you are happy with the human rights records of Russia and China or is it simply a blind dislike of anything to do with successful democracies?
Too true, and they want to strengthen ties with Venezuela and Cuba! It shows just how happy these people are willing to drive the country into the ground.
Well argued and written. South Africans need to get vocal about this naval orgy with two dictatorships and raise their collective objection. How can the SA government afford to spend money on the fuel to send those ships to sea for an exercise that has no benefit to the SA population when they have no money to keep the power generation turbines going? Does our finance minister support this wasteful and misdirected expenditure? The entrance to the Simon’s town harbour should be gated and padlocked until those who run this facility regain their moral compass.
Most South Africans don’t have a clue about geopolitics and many actively hate the west without understanding the realities of the alternative. Hell they don’t even understand the realities of their own political leadership that they vote for time and again mindlessly.
There will be no popular protest about this, just another day.
Your last sentence is quite apt in these times. The ANC being the flickering light of failure or should we put it, more out than on during stage 6 loadshedding.
A very depressing account of where we stand. There is no indication that the President and his ANC is going to solve anything. I do not think they understand anything and South Africans will eventually pay a price for this foolishness.
They understand everything, they just don’t care what happens outside of the cabal. If you want to know where we are headed, look progressively northwards – Zimbabwe, Zambia, DRC, Tanzania, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana … it’s a copy paste exercise that won’t take too long.
Delusions of grandeur I would say – Russia, China and South Africa. Spot the odd man/lady out! But what do you expect with Admiral Thandi Modise at the helm of a country which can’t even run a national airline nor power utility – let alone a competent navy ?!
Spot the odd one out?
CR needs to intervene here and do the right thing. You cannot accept $8.5 billion energy package from the US and Europe on one hand then break global sanctions on another. If SA as a BRICS country wishes to remain impartial on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, then this is going about it in the wrong way! We are already a pariah in the first world, thanks to our BRICS membership – let’s not make it worse!
This is so moronic & so out of touch, it defies any logic.
Any engagement with the Russians should attract sanctions from the rest of the civilised world on the ANC.
Freeze their overseas bank, accounts, slap a travel ban on them; it won’t be that much fun for them to only be able to travel to Moscow or Minsk, where the Louis Vuitton, Prada & Dolce Gabbana etc. boutiques are shut.
Clowns!
The South African navy thinks it’s participating in a game with China and Russia, when in fact it’s the waterboy at the game.
Roped in South Africa to make their navy look good and get some new propaganda footage for Russia. Honestly though, South Africa should get sanctioned for these, and previous, actions.
I guess we align with dictatorships and regimes that openly and violently oppress their people. The Apartheid government would be proud.
Ramaphosa says he’s not going to Davos so he can “deal with the domestic national power crisis”. PR NONSENSE. He’s a moral coward. Davos discusses global issues. He’s too afraid to stand before the world and justify South Africa’s subservience to Russia and China. That’s the real reason why he’s shying away from Davos.
I suspect we’ll be sending in the tugs, the only ships that seem to be seaworthy. What a silly ‘navy’ we have. Simon’s Town harbour is packed with floaters, and the dry docks are filled with the carcasses of ships that will never sail again. The dockyard hums loudly, but to what purpose? (What causes that hum, anyway?). A thousand cars arrive and depart daily, but what work is done? Surely the dockyard and the land-based part of the ‘navy’ exist to service the seagoing part? And there is hardly a seagoing part, just the newby, a lone little pug corvette, a shortened version of the long-form frigate (with helicopter hangers and deck, but of course no choppers), all four in snooze mode, tied up and slowly rusting away. It’s a pretend navy, the landlubber ensigns outnumbering non-commissioned sailors 2:1; a repository (almost wrote suppository) for patronage; a source of jobs, but no work. Just another fiefdom. But, as the only African navy, south of the Sahara, with submarines, and, on paper anyway, with the biggest hitting power, status is what its about. Tragic. And costly.
Perhaps the Russian ships will come with a tug again too.
The deep seated anti-Western sentiment held by the ANC and EFF deserves more analysis, please DM. It was glaringly on display in their overt-the-top praises of deceased dictator Robert Mugabe, whose genocides, murders, intimidation, looting and impoverishment of Zim was overlooked in favor of his defiance towards the West. Many African countries holds the same distrust, if not animosity, towards Western powers. It may very well be unhealed wounds from a colonial past, the racism still prevalent in many Western countries and their domination of global issues. The ANC has been happy to trade with the West, but their support of anti-Western powers have always been on display. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has many facets to it, but trying to keep NATO at bay certainly is one of them. It seems to me the old cold war walls are being rebuilt, and SA is on the wrong side of it.
CR if you have not thought of it yet we could buy a huge amount of diesel for Escom with the money you are about to waste on playing war games. Surely that will be of greater benefit to our country.
My take on this moronic exercise is that the Russians and China have their eyes on Simons Town. Nether Russia nor China has a naval base in the South Indian Ocean or the Atlantic. Hope I am wrong.
Interesting angle. I wonder if either country will actually leave the naval base after the “exercise”.
Seeing as they are coming all this way, could we perhaps ask the Chinese to bring along spares for those broken locomotives they sold us? It would save on shipping costs I suspect.
And we thought the big problem in Durban waters is sewerage-related. But the Indian Ocean is now about to be hit by a mega spill of ideologically toxic red floaters. (And don’t swallow the water while paddling, kidlets. You never know what’s in the drink while our friends are at sea.)
The ANC and its government is an embarrassment to South Africa, and its ideologically driven actions are very damaging to our economic well being and future. This stupid action of boys playing with boats comes at a time when RSA is begging for increased funding from the West for the just energy transition. Have they no shame or common sense? How long will it be before the US imposes sanctions on South Africa for contravening the restrictions imposed on organizations / nations supporting Russia?
Now they can transfer ammunition in peace without prying eyes at sea.