---
title: "Intense power outages are most worrying yet, says Absa"
description: "South Africa’s current bout of intense rolling blackouts threatens to further weigh on economic activity, weaken business confidence and weigh on investment, according to Absa."
type: "NewsArticle"
publisher: "Daily Maverick"
site: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za"
section: "South Africa"
author: "Bloomberg"
author_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/author/bloomberg/"
canonical_url: "https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-01-16-intense-power-outages-are-most-worrying-yet-says-absa/"
published: "2023-01-16T17:05:20"
lang: "en-ZA"
word_count: 377
---

# Intense power outages are most worrying yet, says Absa

> South Africa’s current bout of intense rolling blackouts threatens to further weigh on economic activity, weaken business confidence and weigh on investment, according to Absa.

By Bloomberg · Published 16 January 2023, 19:05 SAST

## Key points
- Eskom, South Africa's state-owned power utility, has implemented outages in Africa's most-industrialised economy for almost two decades. In the past seven days, Eskom has subjected the country to record blackouts — as much as 12 hours a day — to protect the power grid from collapse. Short-term solutions to alleviate the crisis have yet to be announced. Blackouts over the holiday period from mid-December to early January, when electricity demand eases, shows the strain on the grid. How much of the outages are due to active sabotage, a cluster of simultaneous bad-luck events, or “deeply entrenched system problems” at the company — where maintenance over the past decade has been patchy — is unknown. Eskom is likely to publish a power alert with regards to the stages of loadshedding soon. Cumulative damage to the economy's growth potential from investment lost due to persistent power rationing is estimated at 1.3 percentage points in 2022.
- Eskom has subjected South Africa to record blackouts of up to 12 hours a day.
- Short-term solutions to alleviate the crisis have yet to be announced.
- Blackouts over the holiday period show the strain on the grid.
- StatsSA is considering including self-generated power in its monthly electricity-generation data and Eskom has cancelled a highly anticipated briefing due to emergency engagements with President Cyril Ramaphosa.

## Content

While state-owned power utility Eskom has implemented outages in Africa’s most-industrialised economy for almost two decades, it has for the past seven days subjected the country to record blackouts — as much as 12 hours a day — to protect the power grid from collapse as its ageing, mostly coal-fired power plants fail. Short-term solutions to alleviate the crisis have yet to be announced.

“I don’t know and I don’t think Eskom knows how quickly they’re going to be able to sustainably scale back load shedding from Stage 6,” said Peter Worthington, a senior economist at Absa, referring to the outages in which 6,000 megawatts of power is removed from the grid.

Blackouts over the holiday period from mid-December to early January, when electricity demand eases, shows the strain on the grid, he said. How much of the outages are due to [active sabotage](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/south-africa-deploys-army-at-four-eskom-power-stations), a cluster of simultaneous bad-luck events, or “deeply entrenched system problems” at the company — where maintenance over the past decade has been patchy — is unknown, Worthington said.

Each quarterly decline of 1% in electricity consumption is associated with a 0.16% decrease in gross domestic product growth, according to Absa’s research. The economy is unlikely to expand by more than 0.3% quarter-on-quarter through 2023, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists that also sees a 45% chance of the economy slipping into [recession](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/economists-see-a-45-chance-of-a-south-africa-recession-in-2023).

Power cuts likely shaved 1.3 percentage points off economic growth in 2022, when South Africa endured a record 205 days of rationing, Worthington said. Modelling based on historic data doesn’t account for companies having back-up power supply or retooling production processes to deal with outages, and cumulative damage to the economy’s growth potential from [investment lost due to persistent power rationing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/s-africa-fixed-investment-has-fallen-dramatically-absa-says), he said.

StatsSA is considering including [self-generated power](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/south-africa-statistics-agency-considers-adding-self-generated-power-to-data-set) in its monthly electricity-generation data.

Late this afternoon, Eskom cancelled a highly anticipated briefing, due to what it called “emergency engagements” with President Cyril Ramaphosa. In a statement, the crippled power utility said: “While we aim to hold the media briefing as soon as possible, the date and time can only be confirmed once meetings with the president are concluded.

“Eskom will in the meantime publish a power alert with regards to the stages of loadshedding”. **BM/DM**