ENERGY EMERGENCY
Government plans to focus on six ailing power stations to resolve the electricity crisis
Emergency legislation will be tabled to get new power projects on to the grid, as a ‘web of bureaucracy’ slows progress, says the National Energy Crisis Committee of Ministers.
In a briefing to President Cyril Ramaphosa, the National Energy Crisis Committee of Ministers (Neccom) warned there were no shortcuts to solving the power crisis crippling South Africa.
The committee, made up of seven Cabinet ministers, has said there is no short-term fix to high-stage power cuts, which have become a political crisis for Ramaphosa.
Eskom reduced power cuts from Stage 6 to Stages 4 and 5 on Monday as the head of state tried to get on top of the spiralling disaster. This was after he canned his trip to the Davos World Economic Forum amid mounting protests against the power cuts.
On Sunday night, Ramaphosa met political parties and on Monday met labour and business representatives.
Rolling blackouts will continue because Eskom can’t stop its maintenance plan, Neccom said in its briefing to Ramaphosa.
“As Eskom steps up its maintenance programmes — as it must do to reduce breakdowns in the future — it has to take more units offline, which reduces the overall amount of electricity available. The complexity of this challenge means that we will continue to experience load shedding in the short term.”
Neccom will oversee a focus on six underperforming Eskom power stations to stop the domino fall of units, which plunged the country into chaos over December and the New Year.
The briefing did not name the power stations, but they are likely to include Medupi and Kusile (the two beleaguered new builds), Kendal, Tutuka and Majuba.
The Outlier chart above shows how the pace of severe power cuts has grown. The country is buckling, with small businesses going to the wall, households struggling to hustle through the highest stages of outages, and water systems going down as the power fails.
The political temperature shot through the roof last week when the electricity regulator, Nersa, awarded Eskom an annual tariff increase of 18.65%. However, final figures for people and businesses still need to be set.
“We have established a team of independent experts to work closely with Eskom to diagnose the problems at poorly performing power stations and take action to improve plant performance,” the Neccom briefing to the President reads.
If Kusile’s Unit 5 and others at Medupi, Kusile and Koeberg are restored, then, “as these measures take effect, the supply of electricity improves”. (This could take all year).
“One of our main challenges is the web of bureaucracy that makes it difficult to respond to the crisis in an agile manner. The current regulatory framework was not designed with an emergency shortfall,” says the briefing.
“The National Energy Crisis Committee is therefore working to develop emergency legislation which can be tabled in Parliament to allow energy projects to proceed more quickly and enable coordinated and decisive action.”
South Africa’s electricity crisis is 15 years old this month.
The police have also been instructed to “disrupt criminal syndicates and arrest the perpetrators” of crime and sabotage at power stations. Soldiers were deployed to power stations in December to try to disrupt saboteurs.
Neccom told Ramaphosa that good progress had been made since its first statement in August 2022. This is its report card after the Cabinet-led committee was established when the country faced a similar crisis in July 2022:
- 100 projects in the pipeline with over 9,000MW capacity (after the licence-free 100MW limit on own generation was announced. On the grid from the end of 2023).
- Renewable energy projects of 2,800MW of electricity signed. Soon to start construction (they take years to build).
- 300MW imported from Southern Africa Power Pool.
- Eskom has launched a three-year programme to buy 1,000MW of private power.
On an estimated 44,000MW grid capacity, the energy availability factor was an average of 59% in 2022 and lower in the latest crisis. The plans are good, but insufficient.
How does Neccom work?
It is divided into eight workstreams, led by the Presidency’s director-general, Phindile Baleni, who works with teams of senior government officials.
They report to an inter-ministerial committee comprised of: Mondli Gungubele (Minister in the Presidency), Gwede Mantashe (Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy), Pravin Gordhan (Minister of Public Enterprises), Enoch Godongwana (Minister of Finance), Barbara Creecy (Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment) and Ebrahim Patel (Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition).
It has met fortnightly since August 2022, said Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya. DM
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“We have established a team of independent experts to work closely with Eskom to diagnose the problems at poorly performing power stations and take action to improve plant performance,” the Neccom briefing to the President reads.” Why did this take 15 years?
Hope the new emergency legislation will note make it even easier for the ANC crime syndicate to steal, we all know how they just cannot help themselves.
Yes – the reason why emergency measures are only used in emergencies is precisely because it is easier to circumvent. The government law enforcement agencies will have to focus intensely on all these emergency contracts with a fine comb to try to prevent that, and then we must hope that it does not delay the “end-2023” target by too much.
I take it then Gwede is the spider spinning the web of bureaucracy…
Red tape truly slows down processes…. so is it really going to take a year to sort out, or another 15 years. Just wondering.
Why does there need to be any “inter-ministerial committee”? None of the listed names have the faintest idea about running a power utility nor can add anything but self-important and meaningless sound bites.
When will the ANC be humble enough to stand up and say “ sorry everyone, we’ve messed up and don’t have a clue what to do, please come and help us”?
Until that happens and they actually begin to take this crisis seriously there is no solution.
Unpalatable maybe but the quickest and cheapest way to restore mass power is to bring coal fired generation units back on line.
Eskom in the early to mid 2000’s brought at least 3 such units back on line after catastrophic failures( not just poorly maintained) in liaison with the (directly contracted) OEM’s and their impressive subsidiary Eskom Rotek Engineering.
With properly constituted specialist teams of say 50 per unit this could be done in between 4 and 9 months per unit.
Each unit generates 600 Mw(6 per station) vs the 50-100 of a full typical wind or solar plant so can uplift overall capacity and availability factors far more substantially and faster.
These stations are already connected to Eskom transmission backbone-not needing huge expansion and expenditure to connect to renewable plants in the Northern cape in 2/3 years time.
Average life of US retired(not broken) coal fired plants is 53 years. SA six-pack plants range 32-45 years so not ageing as claimed-not maintained due to incompetence, ideology and corruption.
Well said and completely true!!
Those stations were originally the first to be mothballed because of their age, reliability and high maintenance costs. It took years to get the mothballed stations fully operational again. So, not such an easy fix as you propose.
Thanks Joe-Only the older smaller 6 packs were ever mothballed-Komati, Grootvlei, Camden, etc.
The bigger and later stations:Duvha, Matla, Kriel, Tutuka, Lethabo, Matimba, Kendal, Hendrina, Majuba,etc are all “operational”(!) and have never been mothballed. Each of these range 3.6-4.0 Gw nominal capacity. Plus the solution of moving the alternator from an unfinished Kusile unit to replace the blown-up Medupi alternator (only 9 days after handover!) would have given 800 Mw-admittedly a 12 month exercise.
Duvha Unit 3 has sat with a blown up boiler for several years despite Eskom having received a payout for that from their insurers.
So many options available given the will and capability!
And to add respectfully-why does DM merely trot out/parrot statements- what “Neccom say” and not actually challenge such statements which are mainly based on political perspectives without expert input?
There are many readers here with massive technical and operational knowledge on most topics being written about who can only shake their heads as to what is being said and how journalists and other commentators seem to accept and broadcast without interrogation or challenge.
As a related aside, the views of often quoted academics are often uniformed due to them not living in the real world. Give me a seasoned hands-on turbine or boiler expert rather than a professor!
Yet another plan to plunder the coffers – $8.5b ( R144billion at current ROE) being offered by the US and Europe to provide alternate ( wind and solar) energy must be very tempting! Just think of all the Ferraris you can buy with that!
I no longer believe any plans or proposals that provide for the betterment of all South Africans. The ANC just don’t have it in them to do the right thing and deliver on their promises or give value back to the tax payer. The politically connected have only one thing in mind – “what can I take for myself”
Gwede is purported to have a deal with MOCAMBIQUE to have the Karpowerships positioned in Maputo to feed into our grid at great expense no doubt. Investigate this !!
Pray tell, who are these “experts” ? Are you serious about fixing the mess you and your party have created Mr. President, or are you merely telling us what we want to hear to tide you over until the next elections are done and dusted ? If you were serious about fixing this mess like you claimed in 2015 you would have done something more by now that just give us more empty promises.
Why is no one talking about all the empty heads at Eskom paid to do nothing while prices are hiked endlessly for less electricity being supplied ?
The ANC now want an agile response?? This crisis is 15 years old. Is 15 years not long enough for an agile ANC response? The ANC needs to discover that this web of bureaucracy saps productivity out of our economy at every turn. Queuing for many hours for all sorts of documentation costs the economy billions or rands a year. Many years backlog of mining applications costs the economy billions of rands in lost investment and mining production. The bureaucracy around BEE costs the economy billions of rands in lost skills and unnecessary extra administration. And on and on
As you say nothing agile about anything that they do.
The cumulative results of ineptitude, corruption & stupidity, all overseen by communist dinosaurs, clinging onto outdated, failed Marxist policies from the 1930s, which have no place in a modern economy.
Absolutely correct. Prehistoric era government play acting with not a single idea between them.
15 years! What an F-up. Viva, ANC, Viva!!
These useless, incompetent, corrupt government ministers have been saying the same thing for the last 15 years & things have only got worse!! How is this possible??? They talk about ‘unnecessary red tape’ – well who is responsible for that?? There is a hidden agenda here where the comrades are benefiting from bringing the country to its knees. When you have communists (the likes of Gordhan, Patel) on this ministerial panel, you know it’s going to end the same way – idiotic. pathetic decisions that only result in the elite of the ANC lining their own pockets. We should withhold taxes at least until the African National Criminals are out of power (if you pardon the pun).
A bunch of suits who have no clue about electricity production to solve the crisis? I don’t think so. Where are the experts on this committee?
Why is a National State of Disaster not declared, if not a National Emergency, in respect of the electricity and all the red tape wiped away until such time as some resemblance of normality is established? Let the real experts tackle the problems with competent staff and lock up all the saboteurs and thieves. No, that would be admitting that the ANC well and truly has stuffed up over the last 29 years while they have been in power. We currently seem to have the blind leading the blind. What competency does this NECCOM have? What are they going to come up with that could not have been done before. Rather let the country slowly bleed to death, businesses close, people lose their jobs and their dependants suffer.
A total Blackout is now on the cards, if not likely, which would takes weeks to get power stations up and running again, during which the July riots/insurrection of July 2021 would appear as having just been a warm-up.
So Neccom met fortnightly since August 2022 but they allowed over 3 GW of wind power from IPP Bid Round 6 to be turned down because Eskom did not have the transmission capability! It takes 2 years to build and install wind turbines. A competent project management team should easily be able to get transmission lines up within 2 years. Tesla built and commissioned a factory in under 12 months. Work on a transmission line can be done concurrently – there is no long critical path. Servitude and access issues can be a delay, but surely the President can expedite this in an emergency.
What possible difference does Cyril think this will make? Gwede is running this shitshow and while he often gets described as a wily, experienced and powerful politician, his true strength lies in systematic destruction of the country. The rest are just a useless bunch of nogschleppers
Yet more experts. Will we be told their names? Unlikely. Yet another committee needing agendas and staff and probably team building conferences. Pray tell, what exactly does the big fat well paid Eskom Board of Directors do? Surely this is what they are paid report back, create plans and execute said plans?
Germany are decommissioning their last 3 nuclear power stations, and have replaced the same capacity with solar power which have taken just 6 months. Why do we need all the red tape?
In a year, they have also reduced their reliance on Russian oil and gas from 100% to zero. A lesson for SA/ANC.
You can’t replace nuclear with solar. Nuclear operates for 24 hours per day. Solar for maybe 10 hours. And in a German winter you’ll be lucky to get 4 hours of sun.
There is only one sustainable solution. The government monopoly on on electricity supply MUST be taken away and privatised. I am convinced that the Constitutional Court will support such a motion. The ANC government has irrevocably proven that it is incapable of supplying the country with electricity. Its failure to supply electricity is impacting just about every constitutional right of every citizen.
Besides, removing the electricity burden from the government will give them more capacity to fix some of their other problems. Like the crime situation. Like economic growth. Like the road network. Like the hospitals. Like local service delivery where dustbins are no longer removed and raw sewerage is running into rivers. Like schools and proper education. Like SAA. Like ……
I understand an increasing number of areas are no longer being load shedded as the individuals that have to push the buttons are being threatened with their lives.
And privatize broken stations. Would you buy a bunch of ailing power stations where you would have to spend billions on fixing before you start getting any return on investment. You’d be dead in the water before the deeds crossed the table.
Another committee, another task team, another ANC stuff up. Quite simply they just can’t do the job. They can’t run the country, they can’t stop stealing, they can’t stop killing each other, they just are the single most useless crowd of individuals in this country – quite possibly on the planet.
They need to go – there is no fixing them, they are broken beyond repair. Time to start planning for phase 2 of the New South Africa.
I fear that the members of the “inter-ministerial committee” have been sitting every two weeks with there with their own not-so-hidden agendas. Every suggestion from the experts will get watered down to comply with these agendas.
You have just got to see who is on that panel as to why we have no where fast!!!!!!!
Be on the lookout for nice juicy supply chain contracts (like SAA – fuel, ESKOM – coal, transport contracts et al) -anything where there is a nice juicy annuity (easy to manage) for cadres, friends, family, ministers themselves. The renewable strategy is slow because we need to ensure that our cadres, friends, families, ministers have a healthy slice. Once thats done, everything will be implemented post haste because we need to ensure that our train doesn’t run out of gravy. After all its our entitlement.
The ANC thinks accountability is checking your statement to see if that bribe has been deposited. These guys couldn’t grow employment, release spectrum for digital, fix education, improve healthcare, or even reduce crime. Why do we think they can fix this? I have zero faith the State will do anything. All talk, no action. That’s the ANC motto. They are the walking embodiment of Dunning-Kruger disillusion.
If in December the CSIR says that the government has no plans to deal with the Eskom electricity crisis and a Ministerial Committee ostensibly set up in August last year says there is a plan then you can choose who to believe given the experience. It is not the first time that it is said there would be a focus on a certain number of power stations. The last time Gordhan gave lies to the public he mentioned four power stations now the number has grown to six. Nice lies.
The demand by lawyers and Numsa to end loadshedding would shed light on what is happening at Eskom and the strategy behind the blackout that Pali Lehohla exposed in IOL which is to create conditions to implement the Apartheid plan f ISMO.
“Exposed in IOL”? Er, let me quickly grab my tin-foil hat in case the 5G starts mixing with my Covid booster shot.
The crisis is not 15 years old as the article and many posters have suggested: the 1998 White Paper on Energy Policy explicitly stated that SA would run out of excess capacity by 2007/8 and that the fleet of coal-fired power stations would hit the wall by now in terms of realistic lifespan. So the crisis has been 25 years in the making. A quarter of a century. Another two years will be the same amount of time Nelson Mandela was in prison for. The crisis is older than 27 million South Africans, who were born after 1998, and 63% of South Africans were either unborn or at primary school when this White Paper was released.
I would like to know how many jobs have been shed and how many families destroyed by joblessness and hunger because of the power crisis over the last 15 years of actual load shedding versus the few thousands mine worker jobs threatened by an energy transition. More pointedly, why unimaginative luddites like Mantashe haven’t looked at reskilling these workers (other than the obvious answer: NUM would strike to the heavens and South Africa be damned!) to actively participate in a post-coal workforce? Gwede Mantashe has been responsible for more job destruction in South Africa than any other person since 1994. But as Cyril advises us in his arrogance, have a coffee, he’s applying his mind to a reshuffle.
Focus on six power stations right? These clowns have the attention span of five year old children and I doubt they can even focus on one.
Focus and ANC cannot be in the same sentence.
Even if the party could focus, they do not have the ability to plan, come up with solutions or execute anything. If they could, why did it not happen in the first place?
And mr president, you don’t get a cookie for intentions or promise. Sorry.
Opposition parties and business should stay well away from this ANC disaster. For 15 years, the ANC has had its corrupt, dishonest and incompetent cadres “deployed” to Eskom and all they have done is enrich themselves. It is time for the electorate to stand up and get these corrupt clowns out of the circus and into jail.
Richard is talking a lot of sense – I am 100% agreement with him.
We must bring coal fired plants back as a short to medium term solution – it will be a reasonably quick fix using, repairing all the existing infrastructure, which is already there (Don’t tell Gwede that we agree with him). While we are doing this we should procure and procure many Renewables
solutions.
Cyril must be smiling as the ‘Frog in the pot is realizing that it is boiling, but can do nothing’. he is achieving his stated goal.
Why not let the people assist with some help from the state rather than blocked by it. Assume that only 1 million homes set up 1000 W of solar power operating 5 hours per day, producing 5 000 MW per day, equivalent to two Koeberg’s. estimated cost of R100 000 each, say RR50 000 after subsidies, or R50Billions- done in months instead of years, and cheaper than the other options, except for destroying Eskom’s client base.
Install 10GW of gas turbines on the Rompco gas pipeline. Problem solved. Once the renewable build happens these gas turbines will be needed to balance renewable intermittency (when there’s no sun or no wind).
Bunch of incompetent clowns !
I never considered cold coffee but this load shedding has convinced me otherwise.
Yea, the problem is now solved!!
Let’s have a meeting about the next problem and announce a solution for that as well🥴🥴….
What is all the fuss about😵💫😵💫
‘The police have also been instructed to “disrupt criminal syndicates and arrest the perpetrators” of crime and sabotage at power stations.’ How are they going to do that when the big fat spider at the web of those syndicates is at the heart of the inter-ministerial committee? I speak of Gwede Mantashe. It’s in his interest that Eskom fails to rehab its coal fleet and at the same time fails to get renewables up in time to fill the gap. Why? His wife stands to make billions when Karpowerships takes over our electricity generation. And that’s notwithstanding what Shell is paying him to push for offshore gas. And who supplies Karpowerships with gas? Use some critical thinking and ask ‘cui bono?’. Having Mantashe on board is the biggest case of a fox in charge of the chicken coop that I can think of. It’s madness.
Gwede Mantashe is equal to The Penguin in Batman movies.
Google says,coal exports from SA to Europe has increased by 850 % since June 2022
Let us hope that the 100 projects that is said to put 9000 MW onto the grid will materialise. Then things should be better from 2024 onwards. But I still say that Eskom must also execute its’ plans for the six hydro-electrical pump storage stations other than Ingula which is already built, namely Lima, Mutale, Strydom, Waayhoek, Impendle and Hogsback ASAP (it is going to take years to build anyway), because these 100 projects are renewable energy sources which means that storage facilities are needed to pot up for when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine. And furthermore, Eskom will still have to update its’ grid capacity in the Western, Eastern and Northern Cape to allow for more electricity generation, although I think that the reason why the grid capacity from the Eastern and Western Cape has been reached is because the 9000 MW has been counted in. So then it will substantially alleviate our problems from 2024 and give Eskom more time to build the pump stations, create hydrogen electricity storage and extra grid capacity to prepare us for the future.
IF THEY SAY WORKSTREAM, YOU MAY BE SURE ITS A DISASTER