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QATAR 2022

The value of ‘finishers’ – which World Cup quarterfinalists have the best bench?

The value of ‘finishers’ – which World Cup quarterfinalists have the best bench?
Denzel Dumfries of the Netherlands in action against Antonee Robinson of the US. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Rungroj Yongrit)

With only eight matches left at Qatar 2022, which of the eight remaining teams has the best bench with a view to extra time and penalties?

In Brazil’s round-of-16 victory over South Korea, head coach Tite set a World Cup landmark. His 80th-minute substitute, replacing Alisson Becker with third-choice goalkeeper Weverton, meant he had become the first head coach to use 26 players during a World Cup campaign.

No World Cup is won with a starting 11 alone. Three games now separate any of the remaining quarterfinalists from World Cup glory, anc as teams prepare for stronger oppositions, more dynamic game plans and the threat of extra time and penalties, members 12 to 26 of each squad gain greater importance.

Trying to determine the “strongest” substitute bench out of the remaining World Cup teams can be something of a fool’s errand, where football theory and practice find themselves in disagreement. The single-elimination format of the knockout stages means a number of managers avoid like-for-like substitute swaps when introducing fresh legs.

World Cup managers need to account for the technical narrative of games: assessing their players’ performance levels, in terms of form and fatigue, the game state/scoreline, the match time, as well as tactical tweaks and substitutions made by their opponent.

They also need to consider the “emotional narrative” of games, getting a feel for the game’s momentum and whether it can be changed. The jeopardy of extra time and penalty shootouts adds another layer to be considered before any manager turns to their bench. “A watched pot never boils,” and a starting 11 knowing a substitute is incoming rarely plays at 100%.

Spice rack

A coach’s use of their bench is not too dissimilar to understanding how a person uses their spice rack when making dinner. Some managers – such as England boss Gareth Southgate at Euro 2020 – like to stick to a set recipe, even if things on the hob do not match what is written in the recipe book.

Others like to solve imbalances in their initial plans by offering a surplus of something else. Then there are the rare managers, who can recover from a misstep, change a recipe on the fly and give you a different dinner to the one advertised.

Of the eight teams remaining at the World Cup, five have a “most-used XI”. Such is the nature of the World Cup, this means the following starting line-ups have appeared twice out of a possible four matches.

Here’s a look at the most-used players among the World Cup quarterfinalists, and who is most likely to come off the bench.

Croatia

Mateo Kovai of Croatia kicks the ball in front of Japan’s Ritsu Doan during their last-16 game on 5 December 2022. (Photo: John Todd / ISI Photos / Getty Images).

Croatia

Most-common XI – 4-3-3: Livakovic (GK); Sosa, Gvardiol, Lovren, Juranovic; Brozovic, Kovacic, Modric; Perisic, Livaja, Kramaric. 

Head coach Zlatko Dalic is someone who prefers to stick rather than twist with his side. He made two changes from this common XI for their round-of-16 game against Japan, with left-back Borna Barisic coming in for Borna Sosa and Bruno Petkovic used instead of Marko Livaja, but the remaining nine members are almost guaranteed to start Friday’s game against Brazil.

Read in Daily Maverick: “World Cup lesson #1 — don’t reward success

If you play Croatia in a knockout game, be prepared to play extra time and penalties. Brazil coach Tite will have to be prepared for midfielders Mario Pasalic and Lovro Majer to come off the bench at some point. Both men have been used by Dalic in all four World Cup games. Mateo Kovacic and Andrej Kramaric have been subbed off in every Croatia game as well.

Croatia’s strength comes from its midfield trio of Marcelo Brozovic, Kovacic and Luka Modric. All three are secure and clever passers, able to beat the press and grind the opposition down. That Dalic substituted Modric, Kovacic, Perisic and Kramaric before Croatia’s penalty shootout with Japan suggests he is a manager not above shaking things up, but Croatia are the most “known quantity” remaining in the tournament.

Kyle Walker of England on the move against Senegal. (Photo: Sebastian Frej / MB Media / Getty Images)

England

Most-common XI – 4-3-3: Pickford; Shaw, Maguire, Stones, Trippier; Rice, Bellingham, Mount; Saka, Kane, Sterling.

Southgate’s most-common XI came in England’s first group-stage games, first to great success against Iran before stuttering against the US.

England are regarded as having one of the strongest benches of those still at the World Cup, but members 12 to 26 of the squad are largely having to play for four available starting positions, two of which are on the wings flanking Harry Kane.

Jordan Pickford, Luke Shaw, Harry Maguire, John Stones, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Kane are the ever-presents of England’s World Cup campaign to date. Bar newcomer Bellingham, all of them were ever-presents in Southgate’s Euro 2020 knockout campaign as well.

Southgate’s previous form in international tournaments suggests he could go from a 4-3-3 shape to a 3-5-2 when facing France in the quarterfinals. The recovery of Kyle Walker and Kalvin Phillips – two of his preferred lieutenants – could also see a change to his common line-ups if England were to progress further at the tournament.

Jack Grealish has been Southgate’s preferred substitution at Qatar 2022, coming on in all four of England games to date, but such is the manager’s preference for solidity over attacking endeavour during games, expect to see figures such as Jordan Henderson to feature more.

France’s Kylian Mbappe evades Piotr Zielinski of Poland. (Photo: Jean Catuffe / Getty Images)

France

Most-common XI – 4-2-3-1: Lloris (GK); Hernandez, Varane, Upamecano, Kounde; Rabiot, Tchouameni, Griezmann; Mbappe, Giroud, Dembele

Another manager blessed with a strong bench, Didier Deschamps made a number of changes in France’s final group game against Tunisia before going back to his “Strongest XI”.

Like Southgate, Deschamps is a proponent of “Sufferball” football – where one sacrifices attacking endeavours in order to maintain defensive solidity and control in key areas and protect against defensive transitions.

France’s asymmetrical shape when in possession means one of Kylian Mbappe or Ousmane Dembele often has a puncher’s chance of getting in behind an opposition defence and causing trouble, and Oliver Giroud remains an excellent focal point around which France can orientate attacks.

Going into the tournament, much was made of injuries to Karim Benzema, Christopher Nkunku, Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante, but France have been able to replace the efforts of the latter pair through the defensive work of Aurelien Tchouameni, who has started all four games for France at this tournament, and Adrien Rabiot, who runs from deeper in midfield. Antoine Griezmann’s selflessness makes him the glue to many an attacking plan for France.

Deschamps’s interpretation of Sufferball is a little different from Southgate’s. As France’s starting XI contains more players (*waves to Mbappe*) who can create something out of nothing at any given time, he is less likely to go into games with a set plan and a plan B and often trusts his plan A to come good before the allotted match time expires.

France’s performance in their 1-0 defeat to Tunisia will have coloured Deschamps’s opinion of a number of his squad players who underwhelmed in that final group game.

His experimentation with Eduardo Camavinga at left-back failed, but the 20-year-old proved a sensational super-sub in Real Madrid’s Champions League campaign in 2021-22. If Deschamps uses Camavinga in his best position he will have yet another cheat code of a footballer for the latter stages of games against England and potentially beyond.

Morocco

Most-common XI – 4-3-3: Bounou; Mazraoui, Saiss, Aguerd, Hakimi; Amrabat, Amallah, Ounahi; Boufal, En-Nesyri, Ziyech.

Walid Regragui became the first African coach to reach the World Cup quarterfinals following his victory over Spain.

Morocco’s strength at Qatar 2022 comes from their consistency, with nine players from the above XI having started all four games at the tournament.

Nayef Aguerd, who came off injured against Spain, is likely to be replaced in their quarterfinal match against Portugal, but they remain a well-drilled and disciplined side that boasts creative players on both flanks.

Few backed Morocco to get out of Group F before the tournament started. They are the first African team to reach the last eight since Ghana in 2010 and are arguably the most talented African team in the tournament’s history.

Regragui’s consistency with his starting XI is rivalled by his repeat form in substitutes: central midfielder Azzedine Ounahi and tricky winger Sofiane Boufal have started and been substituted in every Morocco game so far.

Memphis Depay of the Netherlands in action against the US. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Mohamed Messara)

Netherlands

Most-common XI – 3-4-1-2: Noppert; Ake, Van Dijk, Timber; Blind; De Jong, De Roon, Dumfries; Klaassen, Depay, Gakpo.

Louis van Gaal is a football-mad scientist masquerading as a tactico. His Netherlands side are a relative outlier to the rest of the last-eight teams, using a lopsided 3-4-1-2 that calls upon the unique skills of a number of players to make it work.

A defender as talented as Matthijs de Ligt has barely featured in this tournament since Van Gaal prefers for the outside centre-backs in his back three to be mobile and progressive on the ball. Davy Klaassen’s off-ball running is preferred to Xavi Simons’s on-ball creative skills as the number 10.

Denzel Dumfries’s unique interpretation of the right wing-back position – preferring to roam in the opponent’s final third than his own – is preferred to Jeremie Frimpong.

Andries Noppert, Nathan Ake, Virgil van Dijk, Dumfries, Daley Blind, Frenkie de Jong and Cody Gakpo have been the seven constants in Van Gaal’s journey through the tournament. Gakpo – who plays on the left wing for his club and has played as both a 10 and a striker for the Netherlands – is Van Gaal’s most common sub, coming off in all four games.

Predicting how Van Gaal will use his bench can be a thankless task. At 71, this World Cup is likely to be his last job, and he has explicitly stated he would like to finish things as a world champion. A quarterfinal against Argentina awaits, but that’s a team harder to predict…

Argentina’s Lionel Messi on the move against Australia. (Photo: Lionel Hahn / Getty Images)

Argentina

Argentina, Brazil and Portugal are yet to repeat the same starting XI in this World Cup.

Argentina’s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia in their first group game saw Lionel Scaloni change his approach for crunch games against Mexico and Poland, and while things settled for their round of 16 game against Australia, there are a number of starting positions up for grabs.

Emiliano Martinez, Nicolas Otamendi, Rodrigo De Paul and Lionel Messi have started every Argentina game at the tournament, while players such as Lisandro Martinez, Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez have made convincing cases to take over from previous stalwarts Christian Romero and Lautaro Martinez.

Argentina’s starting line-up in the round of 16 was: E Martínez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuna; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister; Messi, Alvarez, Papu Gomez.

Angel Di Maria – often Argentina’s secondary playmaker – did not start due to injury, but could be a new option off the bench from the last eight onwards. Of the five players Scaloni has not used yet in Qatar, keep an eye on Juan Foyth and the recently recovered Pablo Dybala, two talented players who can form a makeshift Plan C in case games go to extra time and penalties.

Lucas Paqueta of Brazil in control against South Korea. (Photo: Visionhaus / Getty Images)

Brazil

Brazil’s changing XIs have more to do with Tite’s choice to give every squad member minutes rather than indecision over his strongest XI. Wholesale changes made in their final group game vs Cameroon meant no individual has started all four games for Brazil, but their starting line up against South Korea is how they will likely begin games for the remainder of the tournament.

A 4-2-3-1 of Alisson, Danilo, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Militao, Casemiro, Lucas Paqueta, Raphinha, Neymar, Vinicius Jnr, Richarlison sees Neymar served as the attacking hub while Raphinha and Vinicius attempt to run in behind defences.

Tite has changed his full-backs throughout the tournament, with right-back Danilo moonlighting on the opposite flank against South Korea due to an injury to Alex Sandro. At 39, Dani Alves is best thought of as a dressing-room presence and bodyguard to Neymar, rather than a game-changing option off the bench.

Eray Coemert of Switzerland and Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal challenge for the ball. (Photo: ANP via Getty Images)

Portugal

Fernando Santos made a big call dropping A Certain Striker for Portugal’s most recent game, but a 6-1 scoreline over Switzerland vindicated his methods.

The 2022 class of Portugal is different from the winners of Euro 2016 and the 2019 Nations League, with Santos appearing to loosen the handbrake and focus his team on fast transitions. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva offer speed and control in central midfield.

Portugal’s last-16 line-up – a 4-3-3 of Costa; Dalot, Pepe, Dias, Guerreiro; Carvalho, Otavio, Bernardo; Fernandes, Felix, Ramos – not only saw Cristiano Ronaldo move to the bench, but also Joao Cancelo and Ruben Neves.

Previously a Sufferbal manager along with Deschamps (Southgate directly cited both France and Portugal as reasons behind his approach to Euro 2020), Santos has a squad capable of playing in an expansive manner similar to a Champions League club side.

If the coach continues to bench Ronaldo for the remaining games there could be more changes to Portugal’s approach in potential semifinal match-ups and beyond.

A word too on Rafael Leao, who has come on in all four games and scored twice. Santos has the best attacking Plan B out of all eight teams remaining in the tournament.

It was in 2017 when then-England rugby union head coach Eddie Jones began to refer to his matchday replacements’ bench as the “finishers” – individuals who have bespoke tasks to carry out during Test matches over a set period. In the years since the term has caught on and travelled to football, with a number of UK commentators using the word to describe World Cup substitutes.

The nature of the subs bench is changing with squads being bigger than ever and coaches allowed up to five changes across regulation time and an additional personnel change during extra time. Even traditional like-for-like player swaps take on a different context in the knockout stages, as fresher legs can bring a shock element and momentum swing to finely poised games.

No World Cup is won through a starting 11 alone. Whoever wins this year’s final is likely to see a coach who can balance their deputies as well as their dependables. DM

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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