The players and coaches can’t expect a fair shake from biased referees and World Rugby officials. If these Autumn Internationals are rugby’s answer to the Hunger Games, then the Boks are journeying all the way from District 12, and the odds are not in their favour.

Have you been sucked in yet by this story? Are you shaking your head in disgust, or are you nodding furiously in agreement? Then read on.

Polarising a nuanced debate

In this movie, the top European teams are cast as the haves and the Boks as the have-nots. If Siya Kolisi stops in the middle of Saturday’s game to kiss three fingers and raise them to the sky — a la Katniss Everdeen, the reluctant champion of the downtrodden — all the South Africans in the Twickenham crowd, and all the so-called second-class citizens of the rugby world, will raise three fingers in solidarity. Because in the denouement of this fantasy series, the Boks must succeed, and England, World Rugby and the establishment must be defeated.

This narrative has been tailored for social media, where measured and nuanced views are buried under heaps of polarised takes. In this space, there are only ever angels and demons. If you’re not for View A, then you’re a supporter of View B.

Unfortunately, the traditional media has reflected a similar polarisation of views in recent times. Countless column inches have been dedicated to the latest Rassie Erasmus Twitter episode. No one has stopped to consider who benefits from a contrived and — let’s face it — largely unbelievable idea that the Boks are the most disliked and disrespected team on the planet; namely the Boks themselves.

Rassie Erasmus, the South Africa director of rugby, holds a tackle bag during the South Africa Springboks training session held at The Lensbury on November 22, 2022 in Teddington, England. (Photo: David Rogers / Getty Images)

Think about it. Nobody — including former South African coaches and players — gave the Boks a chance of beating the All Blacks in Wellington in 2018. Erasmus’s side went on to score 36 points in a record-breaking win. They were written off ahead of the 2019 World Cup, and by the world’s media ahead of the final against England in Yokohama. They went on to claim a record-breaking 32-12 victory. Despite their status as world champions, they went into the 2021 series against the British & Irish Lions as underdogs — due in part to their Covid-enforced hiatus in 2020. They lost the first Test, but bounced back to win the next two convincingly.

Coveting the underdog tag

The Boks are a better side when their backs are against the wall and – to borrow the phrase that has appeared in every opinion piece and tweet over the past few weeks — when “the world is against them”.

For most of the professional era, they have failed to win consistently. When they have been written off, derided and disrespected, they have often gone on to claim some monumental one-off results, and the odd title triumph.

It’s a mindset that has frustrated as well as inspired South African fans for many years. When there is an expectation to deliver, South African sports teams — the Boks or the Proteas — capitulate, often in car-crash fashion. When they are freed from the expectation to succeed, however, they occasionally achieve the impossible.

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Nobody understands South African psychology better than Erasmus, a former Bok flanker who has gone on to become one of the most astute coaches and man-managers on the planet. Over the past few seasons, Erasmus has encouraged his coaches and players to lean into the idea that the Boks are not respected by referees, opponents, and indeed entire overseas communities.

If the Boks believe that they are underdogs, and if they believe that they have a point to prove, then they will realise their potential in the traditional areas of strength — up front and with the kicking boot — and exceed expectations in less vaunted departments — such as attack.

Conversely, if the Boks start to think that they are one of the top sides on the planet, and possibly the best of the lot, they will phone in the performance and run the risk of slumping to an embarrassing loss. That may sound crazy to the uninitiated, but in the recent Rugby Championship, the Boks thrashed the All Blacks 26-10 in Mbombela before losing 35-23 to the same New Zealand side in Johannesburg a week later.

Are the Boks perennial underdogs? Is the rugby world against them? Of course not. But here’s where it gets a bit complicated.

Criticism reflects bigger problem with the game

The game is a mess, in terms of the laws and how they are applied. Too much is open to interpretation, especially in areas like the scrum, lineout and breakdown. Ultimately there are too many reasons to (justifiably) criticise officials and question decisions that shape results and championships.

The motives around the law set are clear with respect to foul play and player welfare but are opaque with regard to the myriad offences around the tackle and the mandate of an individual referee to pick and choose what to sanction. If there is one universal truth, it’s that the referees are being hung out to dry by the lawmakers and World Rugby.

Again, this is something that Erasmus has leaned into over the past few seasons. While I don’t agree with his methods, I can’t argue with the veracity of his technical assertions, or the wider argument that the laws as well as the officiating system is flawed. Erasmus has become the most famous referee critic in recent times, but he is hardly the only head coach who is publicly taking officials to task over errors that has cost teams big results. World Rugby can’t ignore these complaints forever.

Has Erasmus gone too far, though, and have his attempts to feed a false narrative about his team’s place in the game done more harm than good — not just to the sport, but to his own team?

Much of the English media, and much of the English rugby community, dislike coach Eddie Jones. On Saturday, however, England — and perhaps the other major European nations — will unite in their dislike of the Boks.

Kolisi and his charges will harness that negative energy, as well as the frustrations of recent weeks, to produce a passionate performance that brings them within touching distance of another famous backs-to-the-wall victory.

Does this story have a happy ending for the South Africans, though? As mentioned above, the Boks have completed a number of stunning victories over the years after being written off in the build-up. This season, however, the narrative of persecution has had a negative effect, particularly in the do-or-die moments of big Tests — as we saw when the Boks faced Ireland in Dublin and then France in Marseille.

If the Boks are to prevail at Twickenham, they will have to roll with the setbacks and accept referee decisions that don’t go their way. If they buy into the idea that there’s a plot against them, and give into frustrations, they will rack up yet another defeat at the English home of rugby.

In many ways, the Test at Twickenham will reveal how much the Boks have learned in 2022, and indeed how much Erasmus’s actions have cost. DM