The Conference of the Parties (COPs) takes place under the banner of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its return to the continent after 10 years (COP17 was held in Durban in 2011) is significant. It’s the moment for Africa’s priorities and needs to be foregrounded even in a year in which the war in Ukraine dominates and the grip of a global energy crisis sets in, threatening to reverse gains made for ending fossil fuel dependence. 

COP27 also comes against the backdrop of another year of frequent extreme weather events around the world. In South Africa’s own backyard, there’s been the devastation of the Durban floods in April. For Kenya and much of the East African region, they face the worst droughts in a generation, with no rains for respite, and in Egypt, heatwaves and dust storms are intensifying as average temperatures creep upwards. 

But since the early 1990s, COPs have edged forward with mixed success. Even with some significant agreements, there has also been watered-down language as loopholes for accountability and financing from developed nations and outright missed targets and refusals of big polluting countries to ratify agreements. 

The journey to Sharm el-Sheikh this year has its origins in the Earth Summit in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted and 197 countries signed a treaty, agreeing to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions.

Two years later, in 1994, the first COP got under way, putting on the Paris negotiating table commitments that 2015 was the target to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and to have the mechanisms in place for climate action financing.

But in 2022 the planet is already at about 1.1°C warmer, and according to the UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) report released in October, the world is off-track. 

The Emissions Gap Report calls for rapid transformation, noting that “the international community is falling far short of the Paris goals, with no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place”.

More data from the UN says national pledges since COP26 in 2021 in Glasgow show that policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century.

At COP15, which took place in Copenhagen in 2009, developed nations pledged to scale up new and additional climate finance to reach $100-billion by 2020. The money has not been forthcoming.

But this October, Oxfam, through its tracking of financing for climate change — including the “Climate Finance Shadow Report” — responded to the finance progress report compiled by Canada and Germany on behalf of donor countries: “While this report provides helpful information on various actions to advance the climate finance agenda, it fails to boost confidence that developed countries will make significant and swift progress on meeting their commitment to provide $100-billion annually, over 2020-2025.

Robust road map lacking

“The report would have been an ideal moment for developed countries to spell out how they will compensate for missing the $100-billion mark earlier through additional climate finance in subsequent years. Also, it lacks a robust road map as to how they’re going to double adaptation finance by 2025, something they agreed to at COP26.”

It’s expected that discussions on financing will dominate in Egypt — to ensure more equality and equity in helping all nations shoulder the burden of climate change. 

Africa is one of the regions that will be most vulnerable to climate change, with impacts set to count in the loss of life and livelihoods as well as increased resource pressure and, with it, risks for conflict, forced migration and displacement. 

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Key issues expected to be focused on in Egypt include the Adaptation Fund, the Green Climate Fund and the question of Loss and Damage.

The Adaptation Fund was established to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries. Over the past two years, the fund has dedicated more than $165-million to increase climate resilience in 25 countries.

The Green Climate Fund was designated as an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC. Arrangements are still to be concluded between the Conference of the Parties and the Fund to ensure that it is accountable. 

The concept of Loss and Damage is a form of compensation that the Group of 77 and China — the developing nations — have called for to be put on the official agenda for this year’s COP. 

The contention around what compensation should look like has left this key point adrift at discussions after 31 years. How far world leaders will move the needle on this point will be a critical test for COP27. DM/OBP

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