President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia has only used “hints” in response to repeated US and European discussions of a possible atomic conflict, telling an audience of foreign policy experts that the West was trying to influence Moscow’s friends and allies by showing “how terrible Russia is”.

China is willing to deepen its cooperation with Russia at all levels, according to a Chinese readout of a phone call between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that also said the pair discussed Ukraine. Russia hasn’t commented.

Ksenia Sobchak, the celebrity-journalist daughter of Putin’s political mentor, fled Russia for Europe as police detained a close associate and raided her home as part of a criminal case for alleged extortion.

Key developments

• Putin-linked celebrity journalist Sobchak flees Russia
• Is Putin strangling Russia’s golden gas goose? The IEA thinks so
• Russia crisis heralds turning point for global energy, IEA says
• Biden team reworks plan for Russia oil-price cap as markets sour
• What is a ‘dirty bomb’ and why is Ukraine worried?: QuickTake

On the ground

Russian forces struck the Kyiv region and the southern city of Zaporizhzhia overnight, Ukrinform reported, citing local authorities. Ukraine’s “South” command said air defence downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter and an Su-25 fighter jet in the Kherson region on Thursday morning. Ukrainian troops downed 18 out of 20 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones launched at the country’s critical infrastructure by Russia over the past 24 hours, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram. Russian assaults near seven settlements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were repelled over the past day, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military reported on Facebook.

Most Russians want peace talks with Ukraine, survey shows  

For the first time, a majority of Russians favour opening peace talks with Ukraine, according to a poll by the independent Levada Center, which also found that just a third of respondents now support the war.

Those backing negotiations with Ukraine rose to 57% in October from 48% a month earlier, while the proportion supporting the continuation of the invasion fell to 36% from 44% in September, according to the nationwide survey of 1,600 Russians conducted from October 20-26.

Support for peace talks was highest among 18- to 24-year-olds, at 68%, and lowest among those aged 55 and over, at 42%, Levada said on its website. The figures were reversed when it came to backing Russia’s mobilisation of reservists to fight in Ukraine, with 58% of the younger respondents opposed to the measure and 66% of older Russians in favour.

Putin says plan for Ukraine war remains unchanged 

Putin said his plan for the “special military operation” in Ukraine remains to ensure the security of the Donbas region, but didn’t mention the sweeping goals of “deNazification” and “demilitarisation” that he’d cited earlier in the invasion.

Putin, whose public statements of his goals for the war have shifted in the months since he despatched troops, didn’t explain the apparent omission. He described the neighbouring regions of Ukraine that Russia also illegally annexed last month as part of a historic ‘Novorossiya’ region.

His comments came in response to a question from the host of the annual Valdai forum event, foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov, who noted that “society doesn’t really understand what the plan is”.

US defence secretary says no sign Putin plans nuclear attack  

“We have not seen anything to indicate that Putin has made a decision to use a dirty bomb,” US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday. “Nor have we seen any indications that the Ukrainians are planning such a thing. Ukrainians have, in fact, indicated to us that is not in their plans.”

Austin said it was important to keep talking to both allies and adversaries to tamp down “dangerous talk”.

Putin says ‘no point’ in making nuclear strike on Ukraine 

“We don’t need a nuclear strike on Ukraine— there is no point, either military or political,” Putin said.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev has been among Kremlin officials warning that using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine was possible. US and European defence officials said this week that a claim by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu that Ukraine may use a “dirty bomb” may be an indication the Kremlin is planning such an operation.

Pentagon rejects ban on using nukes against conventional threats

Citing burgeoning threats from Russia and China, the Pentagon’s new National Defence Strategy rejects limits on using nuclear weapons long championed by arms control advocates and, in the past, by President Joe Biden.

Read more: Pentagon rejects ban on using nukes against conventional threats

Putin denounces dominance of US in speech 

Vladimir Putin blasted the US and its allies for what he called seeking global domination through the war in Ukraine that the Kremlin initiated in February, but said the attempt is doomed to failure as new centres of power emerge.

In a rambling 40-minute speech to visiting foreign-policy analysts outside Moscow, Putin said Russia stands for “multipolarity” and “traditional values”. The war in Ukraine got only a passing mention in his prepared remarks.

Putin devoted most of the address to attacks on Western high-handedness, even as he said the era of US domination is coming to an end. Russia, he said, was not an enemy of the West.

Ukraine grain group says exports may hit 50 million tonnes 

If the safe-transit deal for Black Sea grain exports is renewed, shipments for the current marketing year could reach 50 million tonnes, the Ukrainian Grain Association said.

The group petitioned the UN to secure an extension beyond November for the agreement, which has seen more than nine million tonnes shipped since August from three ports.

If the corridor is suspended, Ukraine will be able to send abroad a maximum of 35 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, the group said. Either way, shipments will trail the 62 million tonnes exported in 2021-22.

Russia authorises drafting convicts to fight in Ukraine

The Russian lower house of Parliament has passed a law that allows for drafting convicts to fight in Ukraine, the state news service RIA Novosti reported.

The mechanism excludes prisoners convicted of the most serious crimes, such as terrorism, spying and treason, it said.

Separately, Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has recently been recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine, offering them early release.

Kyiv may face 30% power deficit from repeated attacks  

Kyiv may face a 30% power supply deficit due to additional heavy Russian strikes on local energy infrastructure on Thursday morning, the capital’s grid operator, Yasno, said in a Facebook statement. “The damage is serious. Therefore, we have a sharp shortage of energy supply,” the company said.

“Usually, Kyiv consumes 1,000-1,200 MW. Currently, the estimated available capacity is 600-800 MW.” Yasno said upcoming blackouts would be longer and would affect a much larger number of consumers than before.

City authorities expect more widespread, stricter limits on power supply in the next days to avoid complete outages.

Putin tells Guinea-Bissau leader he’s still ready for Ukraine talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Guinea-Bissau counterpart that his country remains ready for talks with Ukraine while accusing Kyiv of refusing dialogue, the Kremlin said.

Putin accepted an offer by President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to convey this message to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. The African leader spoke with Putin and Zelensky on consecutive days this week.

“Russia isn’t changing its position, we’re ready to talk at the table, but it’s a matter now of the complete refusal of Ukraine to negotiate,” Peskov said. Putin has so far refused to meet Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader has formally ruled out holding talks with Putin and tied negotiations with a future leader to a withdrawal by Russia from all the territory it has occupied in Ukraine.

Russian missile attacks become less intense, says official

The number of Russian missile attacks has fallen by almost two-thirds since 19 October compared with a previous seven-day period, Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksiy Hromov said in a video briefing on Thursday.

Ukrainian forces downed nearly half of the 52 missiles fired by Russia during the latest period, he said, which compares to Russia firing 146 missiles over the previous seven days. Single-use drone attacks declined by a third, with Ukraine shooting down 79% of the 114 drones fired.

Russian legislators tighten ban on ‘gay propaganda’  

Russian legislators approved a sweeping expansion of a ban on “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations”, broadening the restrictions to include adults and outlawing the portrayal of gay relationships in books, films, the media and the internet.

The Kremlin has stepped up its public embrace of what it calls “traditional values” in the months since its invasion of Ukraine, a conflict it portrays as a showdown with what it describes as Western attitudes alien to Russia.

Ukraine exports 9 million tonnes of farm products through grain corridor

Ukraine has loaded 397 ships and exported more than 9 million tonnes of grain and other farm products to Africa, Europe and Asia since the opening of the grain corridor, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Administration said on Facebook.

Oleksiy Vostrikov, the administration’s chief, said Russia was “deliberately delaying the full implementation of the ‘grain initiative,’ thus Ukrainian ports work at only 30% of their capacity”. He added: “But we are doing everything possible to ensure the regularity of shipments and increase the volume of cargo processing.”

Foodstuffs have been shipped under a safe-transit deal brokered by Turkey and the UN for three Black Sea ports. There’s currently a huge and growing backlog of ships — some 175 — waiting to move to port to load grain.

Ukraine to get Hawk air defence system from Spain 

Spain will be the first country to provide Ukraine with Hawk air defence systems, the country’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov said on Twitter. Reznikov wrote that he expects the new military aid package from Spain to arrive soon.

Ukraine limits power supply in central regions after latest attacks

Ukraine’s grid operator Ukrenergo instructed local operators to limit power consumption in four regions and in the city of Kyiv after Russian attacks overnight hit the electric grid in the centre of the country. Energy supply will be limited in the regions around Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr after infrastructure was damaged by Russian forces.

Ukraine’s grid operators still struggling, says IEA 

Ukraine’s electricity-grid operators continue struggling to cover nationwide demand after two weeks of Russian strikes against power infrastructure. Generation trailed supply for a fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, according to the latest data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Zelensky has appealed to Ukrainians to save energy after convening a meeting with advisers to discuss infrastructure repairs made more difficult by the Russian attacks, according to the Telegram channel of grid operator Ukrenergo.

Journalist daughter of Putin mentor flees Russia

Ksenia Sobchak (40), a socialite and TV presenter who has publicly questioned the invasion of Ukraine, is in Lithuania, authorities in the Baltic nation said Thursday.

Sobchak, a celebrity who took part in anti-Kremlin protests that erupted before the 2012 presidential election, also ran in the 2018 race against Putin, but got less than 2% of the vote. The opposition branded her participation as a ploy by the Russian leadership to give the appearance of democracy after officials barred Putin’s top opponent from contesting the vote. Her late father Anatoly Sobchak was the mayor of St Petersburg.

Russia may target civilian satellites used by Ukraine 

Russia may consider civilian satellites used by Ukraine and its allies as “legitimate targets for retaliation”, a senior diplomat said, according to Tass.

Calling such equipment “quasi-civilian infrastructure,” Konstantin Vorontsov, the deputy head of the arms control department at the Foreign Ministry, told a United Nations session that its use for military purposes is a “very dangerous trend”. He didn’t specify under what circumstances Russia might make such a strike.

Kyiv and its allies have used commercial satellites for intelligence information and communications to combat the Russian invasion. DM