President Vladimir Putin’s defence minister said the army had grown by 200,000 more troops since the Kremlin declared a partial mobilisation last month, although Russia’s neighbours cited figures showing far more Russians had fled abroad.

Ukraine’s army has liberated more than 450 settlements in the northern Kharkiv region alone since September, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address. European Union countries edged closer to a deal on a new sanctions package against Russia. 

Key developments 

• More Russians flee than join Putin’s army after call-up for war
• Nato puzzles over how to shield vital undersea links from attack
• Ukraine advances in south after hammering Russians in northeast
• Musk sets off uproar in Ukraine by tweeting his ‘peace’ plan
• EU moves closer to Russia sanctions deal with oil price cap
• In Putin’s nuclear brinksmanship, weapons leave room for warning

On the ground

Ukrainian forces made substantial gains around Lyman and in the northern Kherson region over the last 24 hours, the US-based Institute for the Study of War said. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Putin’s top conventional fighting forces. Russia launched a missile attack on the city of Kharkiv overnight, with one woman dying, the regional governor, Oleh Synyehubov, said on Telegram. 

US says Russian oil price cap is a week away 

The Group of Seven industrialised economies is within weeks of announcing a formal cap on the price of Russian oil, according to Ben Harris, the US Treasury’s assistant secretary for economic policy.

The step will be announced “substantially before December 5”, Harris said. That’s the date when aggressive European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports are due to enter into force. 

Zelensky aide expects war to be over in months 

There’s little chance of the war dragging on for years, even at the current pace of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and expedited shipments may help end it in a few months, Podolyak said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

“I see months, not years,” Podolyak said. He added that there can be no peace negotiations with Putin until he is beaten militarily and “I wouldn’t exaggerate risks of Russia using nuclear weapons.”

Ukraine has lost 10,000 soldiers in the war, while more than that number were wounded, said Podolyak. Ukraine and Russia frequently give casualty figures that can’t be independently verified, often exaggerating their opponent’s losses while downplaying their own.

UK says nuclear attack would warrant response  

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the use of nuclear weapons by any country “would not go without response”.

Speaking at the Conservative Party annual conference in Birmingham, England, Cleverly didn’t specify what Britain’s response would be.

Ukraine considers restarting nuclear units – AP 

Ukraine is considering restarting two of the six reactors at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant to protect safety installations as temperatures drop, the Associated Press reported, citing Petro Kotin, the head of nuclear power plant operator Energoatom. The decision may come as early as Wednesday, AP said.

The last operating unit at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, occupied by Russian troops since March, was safely shut down on September 11 after shelling repeatedly cut the plant off from the national grid. The International Atomic Energy Agency has started talks with Ukraine and Russia about creating a security and safety zone around the plant.

US weapons package to include mine-resistant vehicles  

The $625-million package of military equipment drawn from existing US stockpiles for Ukraine to be announced on Tuesday will include as many as 200 additional fortified Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles, known as MRAPs, according to two people familiar with the planned aid package.

That’s in addition to four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or Himars, bringing the total to 20, and 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery rounds. The 22nd package for Ukraine was reported earlier by Reuters.

Ukrainian forces press advance after breakthroughs 

Ukrainian troops advanced further in the southern Kherson region after breaking through Russian lines there this week, the Defence Ministry said.

The counteroffensive is now pushing to encircle Russian forces occupying the region as Ukraine’s army retook villages and settlements including Davydiv Brid, about 100km from the city of Kherson. In the east, Russian troops retreated as Ukrainian forces advanced on the strategic occupied towns of Kreminna and Svatove in the Luhansk region. 

More Russians flee than join Putin’s army  

Far more Russians have fled abroad than have enlisted in the military since Putin announced a mobilisation to bolster his faltering invasion of Ukraine.

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said more than 200,000 people had been conscripted into the army since Putin’s September 21 order for a partial call-up, Russian news services reported on Tuesday. 

That matches an exodus of more than 200,000 Russians to neighbouring Kazakhstan alone, according to the central Asian country’s interior minister. Georgian authorities said almost 69,000 Russians had arrived from across the border by September 30, while almost the same amount crossed into the EU.

Nato puzzles over how to protect undersea links 

Nato allies are struggling to work out how to better shield undersea critical infrastructure after the Nord Stream pipeline blasts laid bare the difficulty of monitoring facilities and identifying attackers.

Danish, Swedish and German officials are still investigating the causes, a process that can take weeks, while allies of Nato have rushed to deploy military vessels and planes to monitor the Baltic and North seas.

The sheer scale and underwater depth of assets such as pipelines — or data cables that allow the internet to function — heighten the challenge for governments.

Putin opponent Navalny’s backers restart protest movement  

Top aides to jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny said they’re restarting a national protest movement to capitalise on growing discontent over the war in Ukraine.

“The sleeping majority woke up,” said Ivan Zhdanov, a Navalny lieutenant, in a video posted on YouTube. “Putin woke it up himself.”

The Russian president’s decision last month to call up several hundred thousand reservists after setbacks in Ukraine alarmed the Russian population, according to opinion polls. The government banned Navalny’s organisations last year as “extremist.” The new network will be underground.

Western officials see no change in Moscow’s nuclear stance  

Western officials said they don’t believe Russia has changed its nuclear posture despite unconfirmed newspaper reports on moves by Moscow. London’s The Times newspaper reported that a train linked to Russia’s main nuclear command was seen on the move, while Italy’s la Repubblica reported a planned test of a new nuclear torpedo dubbed the “apocalypse weapon”. 

The officials, who declined to be named on a confidential issue, said they had not seen any indicators or activities that were out of the norm conducted by Russian strategic nuclear forces.

Kremlin says Musk’s interest in peace ‘quite positive’  

The Kremlin called Elon Musk’s desire for a peaceful solution in Ukraine “quite positive”.

“Many of the ideas in Musk’s tweets deserve attention,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call. But Peskov was cool to Musk’s proposal for new annexation votes in Russian-occupied lands, saying Russia’s absorption of the territories is not open to discussion. “Reaching peace is completely impossible without fulfilling Russia’s terms,” Peskov said.

Belarus’s Lukashenko acknowledges backing Russia’s war  

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko publicly acknowledged his country is taking part in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, his first such statement since the start of Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Lukashenko said his country’s participation is limited to preventing the conflict from spreading to Belarus, protecting Russian troops deployed in his country from attacks, and giving them medical care.

 “We are not killing anyone”, state-owned news agency Belta cited Lukashenko as saying. Lukashenko provided his country’s territory to Russia for the invasion.

Russian missile attack triggers rail blackout in Kharkiv  

Russian forces shelled Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with missiles overnight, disrupting the railway network’s power supply, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Facebook. “The enemy is attacking civilian infrastructure, trying to take revenge for defeats and intimidate Kharkiv residents,” Kubrakov said.

Railway workers sought to keep traffic delays minimal, Kubrakov added. Railway connections have already been restored to more than 45 settlements in the region, in particular to the recently-won cities of Balaklia, Derhachi and Chuhuiv. Work was under way to restore connections with Izyum and Kupiansk.

Zelensky signs decree to rule out talks with Putin 

President Zelensky signed a decree which effectively bans any negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a document text on the Ukrainian leader’s official website. The decree enacts a decision by the country’s National Security and Defence Council stipulating the “impossibility of conducting negotiations” with Putin. 

The same decision also approves the country’s government appeal to join the Nato military alliance. “We are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia,” Zelensky said on October 30 as he presented the country’s application for a fast-track entry to Nato. 

Zelensky says Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues 

The Ukrainian army has retaken settlements in several regions, Zelensky said in his nightly address. “Fierce fighting continues in many areas of the front,” he said.

Zelensky said that among the Russian troops killed were those drafted a week or two ago. “And when these new ones die, more people will be sent. This is how Russia fights. That’s how it will lose as well,” he said. “No sham referenda, announcements about annexations, conversations about the borders they invented and drew somewhere, will help them.”

Musk says SpaceX has spent about $80m on Ukraine 

SpaceX’s out-of-pocket costs for providing Ukraine with Starlink dishes stand at around $80-million so far, Elon Musk said in a tweet late on Monday, adding that the company is “obviously” pro-Ukraine as it defends itself against the Russian invasion.

Musk, the company’s chief executive, infuriated Ukrainians when he suggested that the country seek a negotiated solution to the invasion by Russia and cede Crimea for good. DM