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Bitcoin back down below $20,000 on post-Jackson Hole caution

Bitcoin back down below $20,000 on post-Jackson Hole caution
The Bitcoin logo on the window of a cryptocurrency ATM kiosk in Antwerp, Belgium, on Monday, 6 June 2022. (Photo: Valeria Mongelli/Bloomberg)

The largest token extended its drop below $20,000 on Monday as part of a wider cryptocurrency-market retreat, amid concern about the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path.

Bitcoin fell as much as 2.3% on Monday to $19,527. That’s on course for a fifth straight day of declines, coming after US stocks fell on Friday following Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference. The wider crypto market retreated Monday, with the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index dropping as much as 2.5%.

“Money is flowing out of risky assets. Crypto followed the sharp adjustment of the U.S. stock market” after Powell’s remarks, said Cici Lu, chief executive officer at consulting firm Venn Link Partners. “Markets didn’t like what he had to say and Bitcoin is resuming as a high-beta asset.” 

The $20,000 level acted as support for Bitcoin when it hit lows in recent months, but the cryptocurrency had worked its way higher in recent weeks. Before Saturday, it hadn’t been below $20,000 since July 14, and had even crossed above $25,000 earlier in August. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “Trouble in the cryptoverse — first the nuclear bomb, now the fallout”

The gyrations have come amid uncertainty about the path and magnitude of Fed rate hikes, and the effect they could have on riskier assets. 

Numerous strategists have flagged $20,000 as a key point for Bitcoin, though levels of support could lie lower as well.

Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton sees long-term support in the $18,300 to $19,500 area. Fundstrat strategist Mark Newton has flagged some key areas in the $19,000 range, with a “real area of importance” around $17,500, near the June lows and which would allow for a 100% alternate wave projection of the most recent decline from mid-August, he said in a note on Friday.

“If Bitcoin doesn’t hold $20,000, then $18,900 comes into play before a date with the June intraday low of $17,600,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, in a note on Sunday. “Close below that and it doesn’t look pretty.”

The past two Fridays have been tough in the crypto market, with $288 million of crypto longs liquidated on the most recent one, according to data from Coinglass. On Aug. 19, $562 million of longs were liquidated, the most since June 13. 

Second-biggest crypto Ether slid as much as 4.1% on Monday to $1,422.67, continuing a decline from around $2,000 a couple weeks ago. It has been fluctuating ahead of its much-anticipated Merge upgrade, which is due in mid-September.

“Ethereum’s drop ahead of the impending Merge is also of note as bearish sentiment appears to be taking hold across all so-called risk assets,” analysts at Bitfinex said in a note on Friday. “The volatility that has become so characteristic of the digital token space shows no signs of abating.” BM


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