In terms of the Rugby Championship, Saturday’s Springboks vs All Blacks clash at Ellis Park is important, but not decisive. But for many other reasons, it represents the biggest clash between these sides in a generation.

The Boks have not beaten the All Blacks on consecutive weekends since 2009. They have a chance to not only win a Test against the old foe, but also to establish undeniable supremacy over their age-old tormentors.

Ever since the mission of winning Rugby World Cup 2019 was accomplished, the Springboks’ eyed another challenge: establish consistency between World Cups.

Covid-19 set that plan back because it took the Boks out of the entire 2020 season. In 2021 it became a weekly fight for survival in a season that was ravaged by positive Covid cases and affected by biosecure bubbles, which took a toll on all members of the squad.

Therefore, 2022 is the first “normal” season the Boks have had since winning the World Cup and represents the real yardstick of their progress. And matches against the All Blacks are always the tip of the yardstick.

The Boks might have won a Lions series and beaten the All Blacks in Australia in 2021, but it was a disjointed season. 

Which is why, after three wins in four Tests in 2022, and with a chance to put the All Blacks away again after last week’s 26-10 victory at Mbombela, this game is about so much more than winning the Freedom Cup and staying in the chase for the Rugby Championship title.

To use the favoured coaching cliché, it’s about ticking important boxes – consistency and dominance. A home defeat at Ellis Park for the Boks would be a major setback.

Ellis Park

Tactically and physically both sides have their plans and ideas going into the game, but some aspects are hard to define and even harder to prepare against.

Ellis Park, the Boks’ spiritual home, is a unique ground because on big days, the mood is feral. Joburg’s air might be thin, but the atmosphere at the old ground is thick with hostility towards opposing teams. Especially the All Blacks.

Former All Blacks captain Kieran Read described it as the hardest place to win and where he played his most memorable Test – a 38-27 victory over the Boks in 2013. He described the fans as “maniacs”.

See Kieran Read talk about Ellis Park in 2013:

For the current crop of All Blacks, few of them have played at Ellis Park. Close to half of the touring squad has not been to South Africa because of the dismantling of Super Rugby, so it will be a wild experience.

But those All Blacks who have been to South Africa, and to Ellis Park in particular, are under no illusions about the size of the task.

“Nothing compares to it. For me, this is the pinnacle. This is where you want to be playing – against a team that is awesome,” All Blacks flyhalf Richie Mo’unga said this week.

“The noise, 60,000, the altitude, you feel the blood in your lungs, you can taste that, but just understanding the history that has gone there before. It’s a privilege to be able to have the opportunity to play at a place like that.”

Mo’unga summed it up perfectly. The atmosphere is hostile but it’s also tangible. Even the so-called “enemy” can feed off the frenzied energy and turn it into a positive. And no side has won more Tests at Ellis Park against the Boks than the All Blacks.

Five wins in 14 visits might only represent a 36% winning ratio, but that is a phenomenal return at a venue where the Boks often seem to find another gear.

For a team that’s lost five of its past six Tests and its past three in a row, there is no harder place to stop the decline. But there also won’t be a more satisfying arena to do it in.

Shuffling sides

Both Boks coach Jacques Nienaber and his counterpart, Ian Foster, have made changes to their sides after last week’s thriller.

Foster had to shore up the pack after they conceded three first-half scrum penalties and were beaten in the breakdown battle. Foster is also in a battle to keep his job. A fourth consecutive defeat would surely spell the end of his tenure.

With that possibility as a backdrop, Foster has refused to panic and has stuck largely to the group that has struggled. 

Mo’unga will start at flyhalf in the only change to the backline, while props Tyrel Lomax and Ethan de Groot have been called to start. Flank Shannon Frizell, who scored a late try in Nelspruit after coming off the bench, will also start.

Prop George Bower, who started last week, has been retained on the bench while fellow front-rower Fletcher Newell could make his debut from the bench.

Frizell is a battling, tough flank who will bring some needed physicality to the All Blacks’ pack, but whether it will be enough against a Bok side loaded with cannon, is unlikely.

Foster’s selection is a concession that his pack was well beaten in Nelspruit, but by retaining the same back three he hasn’t addressed the aerial shortcomings through selection.

Wings Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke and fullback Jodie Barrett struggled to cope with the Boks’ kicking game, but have been selected again. The aerial bombardment will continue and that trio will have to cope a lot better than they did a week ago. They only won six of 16 aerial contests.

“The challenge is still there. We’re not out of anything. I know there’s a lot of messaging that says we are, but we’re not,” said Foster. “We think this is a massive chance for us to go into a big ground, a massive occasion and, again, show that we are growing our game. And, that’s our goal.”

Damien de Allende of South Africa and David Havili of New Zealand during The Rugby Championship match between South Africa and New Zealand at Mbombela Stadium on August 06, 2022 in Nelspruit, South Africa. (Photo by Dirk Kotze/Gallo Images)

Calculated gamble

The Boks’ victory at Mbombela was built on forward dominance, aerial supremacy and breakdown brilliance. It’s hardly a surprise that the home team will be looking to impose similar pressure on the All Blacks in the same areas.

But they will go about it with some new personnel.

Nienaber was forced into two changes – at scrumhalf and wing – among the five he made in total.

Faf de Klerk is ruled out with concussion and is replaced by Jaden Hendrikse. Kurt-Lee Arendse has been suspended for four weeks and his place on the right wing goes to Jesse Kriel.

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising selection was moving hooker Malcolm Marx back to the bench after his seminal performance at Mbombela. Marx dominated the contact area and won five breakdown turnovers.

Of course, Marx is no stranger to starting from the bench, but after his heroics and Bongi Mbonambi’s subsequent knee injury, which meant a call-up for Joseph Dweba, it seems a risky gamble by Nienaber.

The one thing the All Blacks thrive on, even the current struggling group, is momentum. Marx’s stellar breakdown work took that momentum away from them a week ago, as the Boks took an early 10-0 lead. That scoreboard pressure added to the All Blacks’ woes.

Jaden Hendrikse of South Africa during The Rugby Championship match between South Africa and New Zealand at Mbombela Stadium on August 06, 2022 in Nelspruit, South Africa. (Photo by Dirk Kotze/Gallo Images)

But if the tourists can get a foothold in the game early on with quick ruck ball, it could stress the Boks’ defence. The Boks are brilliant front-runners but playing catch-up is not as easy for a team that is built to gradually squeeze the life out of an opponent.

Which is where Duane Vermeulen comes in. The 35-year-old No 8 is back from a knee injury and is expected to execute the job of breakdown enforcer initially before Marx and Kwagga Smith are unleashed later.

“Physically, you just have to wait and see. It’s very much a 50-50 thing. I haven’t played for the past eight weeks,” Vermeulen said.

“That’s the only big thing really and it’s going to be at altitude too. But we’ve got a really strong group of players, you don’t play just alongside 15 guys, it’s 23.

“So, I’m just going to give my best and see how far I can push myself and then we have replacements to take over. It’s probably interesting coming back at altitude, it should be a difficult challenge in a good way. We’ve worked hard and well over the past few weeks and I just want to give back. I’ll give it all, even if it’s just 40 to 50 minutes.”

If Vermeulen is even half as effective as Marx was last week, in the early stages, it should be enough to lay the foundation for another Bok win. If the match is close when Marx and the rest of the bomb squad finally join the game, they have the skills and experience to blow the All Blacks away. DM

Teams:

South Africa

15 Damian Willemse, 14 Jesse Kriel, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche. 

Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Willie le Roux.

New Zealand

15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 David Havili, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samson Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot.

Reserves: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Akira Ioane, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Quinn Tupaea.

Referee: Luke Pearce.

Kick-off: 5.05pm.