By Tarek Amara and Angus McDowall

The vote is being held on the anniversary of Saied’s sudden move against the elected parliament when he ousted the government, established emergency rule and began governing by fiat.

It is not clear when the results will be announced after polls close at 2100 GMT, but with little apparent enthusiasm for the vote among most Tunisians and a boycott by major parties, analysts expect a ‘yes’ vote with low turnout.

Under Saied’s own rules for the referendum, no minimum level of participation is needed to approve the new constitution. They only stipulate it will come into effect once the final results are published, and do not say what happens if voters reject it.

Saied has hailed his moves as the foundation of a new Tunisian republic to put the revolution back on course and end years of political sclerosis and economic stagnation.

His foes accuse him of a coup.

DISUNITY

However, while nearly all major political parties and civil society organisations have denounced his unilateral approach to rewriting the constitution and the legitimacy of the referendum, they have failed to build a united front.

Disunity was visible in protests against Saied in recent days. The Islamist Ennahda, the biggest party in parliament, took part in a protest on Saturday. Civil society organisations and smaller parties held one on Friday. A party that backed the pre-revolution autocracy held its own on both days.

The protests attracted only small numbers, but rallies organised by Saied supporters have also had only modest attendance and there has been little sign of excitement around the campaign.

Most Tunisians remain focused on the dire economy and rising prices.

However, the economic decline since 2011 has left many people angry at the parties that have governed since the revolution and disillusioned with the political system they ran.

“I don’t support Saied, but I will vote ‘yes’ in the referendum because those protesting against it are the main cause of our problems for the past decade,” said Mohammed, a Tripoli resident.

Of the three parliamentary elections and two presidential elections since the revolution, the lowest turnout, of 41%, was in 2019 for the chamber that Saied has dissolved.

A turnout on Monday far below that rate would further call into question the legitimacy of Saied’s new constitution and his project to remake Tunisian politics.

(Reporting by Tarek Amara and Angus McDowallEditing by Gareth Jones)