Treasuries fell across the board as investors shunned haven assets, with the 10-year yield climbing back toward 3%. The dollar fell against all of its Group-of-10 peers. On the flip side, Bitcoin rallied back above $22,000.
The S&P 500 index is more than 5% above June’s closing low following Friday’s strong rally on renewed hopes that inflation — and Fed rate hikes — may be close to peaking. Fresh data showed a greater decline in US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations, helping boost odds for a 75 basis points hike in July and squashing talk of a 100 basis-point move.
“We got a combination of better-than-expected inflation signals in some data points at the end of the week, reducing rate hike expectations, and better-than-expected retail sales that reassured markets about recession fears, which is lifting sentiment,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. “Add to that some decent bank earnings this morning and markets are moving higher.”
Even so, a pressure point for markets remains gas supply to Europe amid a standoff with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has already curbed supplies to the continent amid tensions related to its invasion of Ukraine. European stocks and US futures briefly pared gains before the bell in New York
Gazprom PJSC has declared force majeure on at least three European gas buyers, according to people familiar with the matter. The force majeure notice applied to supplies over the past month, it said in a letter dated July 14.
Gazprom declared a “force majeure” on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer.
“The possibility that Russia stops, or severely reduces, their gas exports to Europe should keep markets on edge in the near-term,” Mizuho International Plc strategists Peter McCallum and Evelyne Gomez-Liechti wrote in a note to clients.
Gains in stock markets may prove to be short-lived as inflation pressures remain high and a recession seems increasingly likely, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Elsewhere in markets, West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $100 a barrel, and copper extended its recovery from last week’s slump. Bitcoin rallied, trading above $22,000 for the first time since early June.
Key events to watch this week:
- Earnings this week include Tesla
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits South Korea. Tuesday
- Reserve Bank of Australia releases July minutes. Tuesday
- UK Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speak at event. Tuesday
- Bloomberg Crypto Summit in New York. Tuesday
- Bank of Japan, European Central Bank rate decisions. Thursday
- Nord Stream 1 pipeline scheduled to reopen following maintenance. Thursday
Some of the main moves in markets:
- The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 10:40 a.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9%
- The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
- The euro rose 1.1% to $1.0186
- The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.2020
- The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 138.09 per dollar
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 2.98%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 1.21%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.14%
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.2% to $101.70 a barrel
- Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,714.20 an ounce