It is the worst public image crisis since Ramaphosa returned to formal politics as deputy leader of the ANC at the 2012 Mangaung conference. Unless this is handled correctly, it can potentially derail his stated ANC renewal agenda, with serious repercussions for the ruling party’s prospects of retaining power after the 2024 national elections.

It should also not be forgotten that the first public source of these claims, the former head of the State Security Agency Arthur Fraser is, to put it bluntly, not a man who can be trusted. He faces serious allegations and there is zero doubt that he is stoking this fire solely for his political agenda of helping RET return to full control of the ANC and thus, South Africa, especially its security cluster. 

Any claim that Fraser is doing this for the good of the country can be safely ignored. But Fraser is not the only source of these claims. 

Ramaphosa’s stolen millions: the Namibian connection

A report by the amaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism, and published by this publication, strongly suggests that Ramaphosa may have a serious case to answer, and that this could damage both him and the ANC.

Last week the Presidency confirmed Fraser’s claim that foreign currency had been stolen from his farm in Limpopo, and that he had not reported to the public. The new presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya denied that it was an amount of $4-million, saying that that was an exaggeration.

On Sunday both the Sunday Times and the City Press newspapers carried accounts gleaned from Fraser’s criminal complaint against Ramaphosa. 

In his version, he appears to state that US dollars were kept in a couch, that it was stolen by four Namibian nationals – one of whom was in a relationship with a domestic worker on the farm – and a single South African citizen. 

Fraser goes on to claim that people assigned to fix the problem, some of them crime intelligence members controlled by Ramaphosa’s head of security detail, Major General Wally Rhoode, eventually found the people who had stolen the money, and interrogated them, presumably illegally.

He goes on to claim that Ramaphosa even enlisted the help of Namibian President Hage Geingob after a suspect fled there.

Strangely, Fraser also claims that Ramaphosa paid money to the thieves and the domestic worker, presumably in order to ensure that this entire affair was kept secret.

As is well known, evidence was presented to the Zondo Commission that Fraser committed criminal acts while running the State Security Agency (SSA). As Ferial Haffajee has pointed out, the Zondo Commission report on the SSA is likely to be published soon.

Fraser and his attorney Eric Mabuza have ignored requests from broadcasters for interviews, except for apparently talking to IOL’s Mzilikazi wa Afrika. Their claims have not yet been interrogated in any public way.

However, amaBhungane’s set of facts that was published in Daily Maverick late on Saturday, 4 June, appears to bolster much of what Fraser has claimed.

They spoke to a separate source at Ramaphosa’s farm who appeared to confirm that a woman was kept in a room for two days, against her will, while being questioned by people who appear to be police officers. And that Namibian authorities actually became aware of this robbery first, and that journalists in that country were aware of someone with a large amount of cash from this theft from as early as June 2020.

They also report that Namibian authorities tried to pursue a request for assistance to discover what happened, but that South African authorities did not cooperate in any meaningful way.

In some ways, the most damaging aspect for Ramaphosa may be in some of these details.

Ramaphosa pleads innocence, says charges laid against him are politically motivated

Is it true that US dollars were stashed in a couch, and why? Why was cash being kept on the farm in the first place? Was this revenue reported to SARS? Was the Reserve Bank informed about both the transaction that resulted in the payment of these dollars, and when? Were they legally obtained?

Another damaging detail, as confirmed by the Presidency, is that Ramaphosa is not actually sure how much money was taken.

It looks almost like a mafia movie, where cash is kept in furniture, where there is so much of it that it can be wasted, tossed away as if of no importance.

At a time when the financial pain felt by millions of our people is so acute, that there is evidence that many children are at risk of starving.

And of course, there is the other issue, common to so many other political scandals – what did the President know, and when did he know it?

Politically, perhaps the real power of this issue lies in the fact that up until this point, an important aspect of Ramaphosa’s political power lay in the fact that he was the most popular politician in the country.

This popularity appeared to rest on perhaps two main elements; that he was not corrupt (or at least, not as corrupt as “the others”), and that there was “no one else” who could lead the country at this moment.

The perception that he was not corrupt was in a way his superpower: it gave him the moral authority to introduce changes to the ANC, perhaps the most important of which was the NEC’s “step aside” resolution (which followed the earlier resolution at Nasrec in 2017).

Perhaps even more important than that was that it was this perception of being “clean”, and his popularity, which meant his leadership was vital to the ANC as the ruling party is shedding support alarmingly fast.

The fact that the Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and this weekend Limpopo provinces of the ANC have all publicly stated their support for his second term as ANC leader is strongly taking this into consideration.

In short, perhaps the major reason people in the ANC support Ramaphosa is because they need him to win elections.

Now, this superpower may have been penetrated, the kryptonite of these claims may well have a permanent effect.

Of course, Ramaphosa is very much aware of this.

The fact that Magwenya was appointed presidential spokesperson just a day before these claims emerged may suggest that he knew what was coming.

Magwenya has started the response by asking why, if Fraser was a part of the security cluster in 2020, did he not raise this with Ramaphosa then, but is only doing so now? Of course, this points to the political motive.

This may work against Fraser. But it won’t work against the amaBhungane report.

This entire issue also casts a light on the role of people in our intelligence services in our politics. When Ramaphosa took over the Presidency in 2018, he appointed Fraser Correctional Services Commissioner despite the strong evidence in the public domain that he was corrupt.

The Principal Agent Network (PAN) Dossier, Part 1: Zuma and Mahlobo knew about Arthur Fraser’s rogue intelligence programme

Scorpio: SA’s spy boss implicated in massive tender fraud at Prasa

Now, it may be a good time that Ramaphosa took Fraser’s threats that he would reveal information about our politicians very seriously.

In the Sunday Times, Makhudu Sefara has written an important piece about how presidents are often forced to “manage” spy bosses, and suggests that this may also explain why David Mahlobo has been retained as a Deputy Minister, despite his damaging role as State Security Minister during the Zuma era.

It is now guaranteed that Ramaphosa’s critics and opponents will line up to use this scandal in the making against him.

The RET faction in the ANC will claim that he is not fit to be in the Presidency, that he must “step aside”. There will be whispering campaigns and, possibly, a massive, energised and deliberate social media strategy to say that he must go. This will attack not just him, but his supporters and journalists perceived to be not critical enough of Ramaphosa; they will say anyone who criticised Zuma should now also demand Ramaphosa’s removal.

His supporters will argue that there is no other credible leader of the ANC, and that a big difference between Zuma and Ramaphosa is the people appointed to head institutions. That there can be no comparison between someone like Shamila Batohi and someone like Menzi Simelane at the NPA, or even between Judge Raymond Zondo as Chief Justice and Judge Mogoeng Mogoeng.

In the middle of all of this, it has already been seen, truth has become a major casualty. It may become almost impossible to know what happened, and when. It will also weaken any efforts to ensure our criminal justice system is actually independent.

However, while our criminal justice system and Ramaphosa may be important casualties in this, there is another with much to lose.

It may well turn out that the biggest loser in all of this is not Ramaphosa, but in fact the ANC. Its claims to be in a process of “renewal”, or change, or reform, or “self-correction” are surely going to be dealt a massive blow by this.

It has become public that it is led by someone who lost money but is so rich they don’t know how much, and can’t explain why it was kept as cash.

If the ANC loses Ramaphosa, or if his image is seriously tarnished, it may well find that it has no remaining leaders to be seen as credible by voters, come 2024. DM