Conflicting news over the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border has roiled commodity markets. Renewed warnings from the U.S. over the weekend initially pushed up oil prices on Monday, following the first weekly decline this year on signs of an easing stand-off and hopes of a revival of Iran’s nuclear deal. Meanwhile, bullion fell back below $1,900 an ounce after earlier hitting an eight-month high.
Global commodity markets have been in thrall to the prolonged standoff over Ukraine, which comes at a time of already robust demand, surging prices and concern over fast-depleting inventories. Raw materials are trading close to a record, boosting inflation and complicating the task for central banks as they seek to tame the pace of price gains without derailing the recovery.
Macron will work with stakeholders to prepare summit talks between Biden and Putin to discuss “security and strategic stability in Europe,” the French government said in an emailed statement. The timing and format of the summit are still to be determined, and it will be called off if Russia invades Ukraine, according to a U.S. official who asked not to be identified.
Any attack from multiple locations could essentially fence Ukraine in, potentially upending commodity markets as regional flows are disrupted and possibly targeted by Western sanctions. Traders are also tracking wheat, which both Ukraine and Russia export, as well as aluminum and nickel.
Oil investors, meanwhile, were following negotiations to rekindle Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement, which remain bogged down. Germany’s chancellor warned that it’s now or never to save the accord, which could usher in a return to the world market of official oil supplies from the Persian Gulf nation.
Oil could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel this year, with world demand poised to expand to a record, Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy told Bloomberg Television. The head of the world’s largest independent oil trader said that the market will get tighter, with daily consumption set to rise well above pre-Covid levels by the end of 2022.
In a signal of the crude market’s bullishness, nearby contracts for WTI and Brent are commanding significant premiums over those further out, indicating that traders are clamoring for barrels right now. In Asia, refiners are seeking to ramp up their run rates to benefit from healthy margins.