First published in the Daily Maverick 168 weekly newspaper.

The Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus has penetrated the bio-secure bubbles hosting the Boks, Lions and Georgia in recent days. The breach has forced players and entire teams to isolate, and has ultimately led to the cancellation and postponement of several fixtures.

The third wave of infections, accelerated by the new Delta variant, hit Gauteng harder than anywhere else, but there are growing concerns that the Western Cape healthcare system is expected to experience similar challenges over the coming weeks.

From a rugby point of view, the Lions and Boks may escape one storm in Johannesburg only to find themselves in the middle of another when the tour moves to Cape Town.

If the worst-case scenario comes to pass, the three-Test series – the be-all and end-all of any Lions tour – will fall by the wayside. This generation of Boks will miss out on the chance to face the famous composite team from the northern hemisphere, and SA Rugby won’t receive a much-needed cash injection worth about R500-million.

Doomed from the outset

The build-up to this tour was fraught with uncertainty, given the rising number of cases in South Africa during the early stages of 2021. The schedule was eventually changed to ensure that all fixtures would be played in two bio-secure environments, in Gauteng and in Cape Town.

The Lions’ arrival in South Africa, however, was preceded by the arrival of the Delta variant. The rise in infections forced South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to move the country into Adjusted Level 4 lockdown.

Ramaphosa made this announcement on 27 June, the day after the Lions’ warm-up game against Japan in Edinburgh. It is believed that coach Warren Gatland and his charges watched the president’s address on the tarmac at Edinburgh airport. After delaying takeoff to discuss the matter, the Lions pushed on with their makeshift plans to tour South Africa.

Since then, many have asked: Why couldn’t the Lions have delayed that journey for a bit longer – say another 12 months?

Benefits of a full-scale Lions tour

If the tour was postponed to 2022, the situation in South Africa may have improved to the point where fans could attend matches and provide the atmosphere that this rare and prestigious occasion deserves. According to SA Rugby president Mark Alexander, the South African economy would have enjoyed a R6-billion injection as tens of thousands of Lions fans descended on the country for a once-in-a-lifetime experience.

What’s more, the Lions and Boks would have enjoyed a competitive build-up to the Test series. Warren Gatland and Jacques Nienaber would have been in a position to field more powerful lineups across all three matches.

Postponement opposed in UK

Why then has the tour proceeded in 2021, in spite of the health risks and in spite of the limited benefits?

It’s fair to say that cash-strapped SA Rugby needs the broadcasting revenue attached to the three Tests, and that the governing body will benefit if the series is completed in any shape or form.

According to reports in the UK, however, much of the opposition to the postponement of this tour has come from the home unions, who are unwilling to release top players at a time when each of the individual nations will be involved in important tours to the southern hemisphere.

Some have made the laughable claim that moving the Lions tour to July 2022 would affect each of the individual unions’ preparations for the 2023 World Cup, even though that global tournament is scheduled to begin some months later.

In the here and now, Nienaber and Gatland will have to roll with the punches on a daily basis. The Lions are in a stronger position at present, given that so many of their players have been involved at Test level since lockdown was lifted in Europe last August.

And despite all the recent disruptions, the Lions have managed to play several games as a team.

After the hiatus

The Boks came into the 2021 Test season after a 20-month hiatus from international rugby.

Although they showed some encouraging signs in their comeback game against Georgia on 2 July, they would have expected to add more layers and complexity to their game in the lead-up to the second Test against the eastern Europeans and in the SA A match against the Lions.

A number of positive Covid-19 tests forced the entire group into isolation, though. Not only was the second Test against Georgia cancelled, the Boks were also unable to train over the past week. It’s a big setback for a team that is already playing catch-up.

Unfortunately, the situation could go from bad to worse if there are more positive cases and resultant periods of isolation over the coming weeks.

If the Boks’ best players are affected, and if these matches aren’t cancelled or postponed, Nienaber may find himself in a worst-case scenario where he has to field a host of second- and third-stringers – some of whom may be completely untried at this level.

Director of rugby Rassie Erasmus spoke about this contingency plan several weeks ago. It would be a shame, not only for the Boks but also for the credibility of the series, if the situation demanded such a plan’s implementation. DM168

HOW COVID-POSITIVE TESTS HAVE ROCKED FIRST TWO WEEKS OF LIONS TOUR

• 27 June: The Springboks cancel a training session after Herschel Jantjies, Vincent Koch and S’bu Nkosi test positive upon arrival at the team hotel in Johannesburg. Two more players – Lukhanyo Am and Makazole Mapimpi – are forced to isolate after coming into close contact with teammate Nkosi.
• 28 June: The Boks return to the training field. Jantjies is cleared to play after the medical team confirms that his test returned a false positive.
• 5 July: The Springboks confirm that Lood de Jager has returned a positive test. Training is cancelled as the entire squad goes into isolation.
• 6 July: A further four players – Frans Malherbe, Marvin Orie, Handré Pollard and Frans Steyn – as well as six members of management, including head coach Jacques Nienaber, test positive. Georgia reveal that four members of their squad have tested positive. The Bok team announcement is postponed as the Medical Advisory Group – comprising CEOs and medical experts from both the South African and Lions camps – meets to discuss the way forward.
• 6 July: SA Rugby announces that the fixture between the Bulls and the Lions – scheduled for 10 July at Loftus Versfeld – has been put on hold. It’s confirmed that four Bulls players and one member of staff have tested positive for Covid-19.
• 7 July: SA Rugby confirms that the second Test between the Springboks and Georgia has been cancelled because of Covid-19 infections in both camps.
• 7 July: Less than five hours before the kickoff of the Sharks-Lions match at Ellis Park, the Lions reveal that two players and two members of management have been forced to isolate after testing positive. Kickoff is pushed back an hour to allow for further PCR testing.
• 7 July: Georgia release a statement confirming that they have a total of six positive cases within their group. The statement insists that the Georgians followed the regulations and protocols.
• 7 July: One hour and 45 minutes before the new kickoff time of 8pm, authorities confirm that the match at Ellis Park will go ahead. The Lions, however, confirm that 12 players are isolating. Eight changes are made to the match 23, and only one back is included on the bench.
• 8 July: SA Rugby announces that the Lions will face the Sharks for a second time (on 10 July at Loftus Versfeld) in light of the decision to postpone the initial fixture against the Bulls.
• 8 July: Lions MD Ben Calveley says the tour will proceed despite the challenges. Coach Warren Gatland insists that the Test series will take place as planned. DM168

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper which is available for free to Pick n Pay Smart Shoppers at these Pick n Pay stores.