Mining production inched up by 0.1% in December of 2020 compared with the same month the previous year, and 0.5% compared on a monthly basis. So it ended a terrible year on at least a positive note. Still, total mining production for 2020 was 10.7% lower than it was in 2019, which is no surprise after parts of the sector were locked down for extended periods because of the pandemic. But it maintains a downward trajectory in production.

By contrast, mineral sales rose by almost 24% year on year in December. That is a function of higher prices, notably for gold, iron ore and platinum group metals (PGMs). This will be reflected in a spate of financial results due out this month, which will generally show soaring profits and dividends. That may not arrest the decline in production as activities such as exploration remain subdued, and without exploration new shafts won’t get sunk. Eskom also stands ready to spoil the production party.

Manufacturing also perked up a bit in December, rising 1.8% in the month compared to December of 2019. That is perhaps not much of an accomplishment given that Stage 6 load shedding struck in 2019’s twilight. Overall, manufacturing output in 2020 declined by 11% from 2019.

“Although manufacturing sector activity rose in December, the outlook for the sector remains dire. The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading ticked up slightly, but the important business activity sub-index reading declined further into negative territory. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding the government’s vaccine roll-out programme could lead to a sustained period of muted domestic demand,” NKC African Economics said in a commentary note.

Both sectors are labour intensive, are crucial for exports, and remain key to unlocking future investment. Their slide needs to be arrested and fast. DM/BM