We have now, finally, reached the point where the deluded and delusional forces of Donald Trump have only one vaguely legal avenue left to cast shade on the election of President-elect Joe Biden. That will come in the first week of January 2021, two weeks before the inauguration, when the electoral votes from the states are recorded by the newly elected House of Representatives.

Of course, the disparate “militias” and others of the tin foil hat-wearing armies may stage noisy, even unruly, demonstrations and protests, but that will be very different from achieving a real effect on the electoral results. Finally.

In theory, one or another of these already duly certified electoral votes for Joe Biden, already cast and certified in each of the respective state capitals in the confines of their state legislatures, all across the nation, could be challenged in Congress at the time of the final recording of the vote. But that would require a challenge concurrently from both the Senate and the House of Representatives. 

But it will be a freezing cold, blizzard of a snowy day in the middle of summer deep in the Brazilian rainforest before Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will allow any challenges from Republican members of the House to proceed from the House. (Such an effort is being muttered about by a few Republican Senators and congressmen, even after the certification of all electoral votes has taken place. This comes as the country’s state and federal courts — including the Supreme Court — have given no succour to the Trump campaign on any front.) In fact, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been reported to be counselling his caucus not to try this either. 

A sign of McConnell’s return to planet Earth from the orbit of the intoxicating atmosphere on Trump’s Planet Zenon has been his — rather belated — words of congratulations to Joe Biden on his 3 November victory.

It is also true that in offering those congratulatory words, he was actually beaten to the punch by Russia’s Vladimir Putin and other remaining holdouts internationally such as Brazil and Mexico. Nevertheless, McConnell’s new-found clarity of vision about the future may just speak to the hint of a possible chance for at least some very modest cooperation between the Republican-held Senate and the incoming administration.

Or, as AP Morning Wire editor at large Jerry Schwartz wrote, summarising the state of play, “More than a month after the election, some of America’s highest-profile Republican holdouts have begun to embrace reality, coming to terms with the fact that Joe Biden will be president soon.

“Biden spoke with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who publicly congratulated the Democrat on his victory, Will Weissert reports. And Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, says he’s spoken with Biden and some of his Cabinet picks. There’s still one very big holdout: Trump hasn’t conceded. 

“In the meantime, fending off a messy fight that could damage Republicans ahead of Georgia Senate runoffs, McConnell warned fellow GOP senators not to join Trump’s extended assault on the Electoral College results.” 

Of course, speaking of the Senate, if the Democrats win both of those Senate special elections in Georgia on 5 January, McConnell’s hold on control of the Senate will have just — barely — slipped from his grasp. Such a double victory would turn the party split in the Senate into a 50-50 tie, with all tie-breaking votes cast by the new vice president, Kamala Harris, including the holder of the title of Senate majority leader. 

But even if the Republicans manage to hold on to one of the two seats (let alone both), the prime task for Democrats will always be in peeling off several Republican senators to support at least some measures proposed by the incoming president. Without such help, the chance for a major Biden legislative wave becomes extremely circumscribed, even in these tough times. The Republicans may also throw roadblocks on the way to confirmation of a couple of Biden’s picks for executive posts that require Senate approval, such as his nomination of Neera Tanden to become head of the Office of Management and Budget.

Meanwhile, the president-elect continues to flesh out his cabinet and senior officials roster, most interestingly, perhaps, with the nomination of Pete Buttigieg as secretary of transportation. The 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and an unsuccessful but thoughtful, articulate contender for the 2020 presidential nomination, might reasonably have been interested in returning to Indiana to try for a Senate seat there, in the future. But with that state’s rock-solid Republican status overall, a seat at the big table in a Democratic administration may, just may, portend a bigger role for him, some years down the road, nationally. That could be the case if successful national infrastructure renovation actually becomes a concrete hallmark of the Biden administration — and one led by the ever-energetic, but ever-thoughtful Buttigieg.

In foreign relations, while American allies and friends are eagerly awaiting the beginning of the Biden administration, the waning Trump administration, now down to its last month and change, continues to carry out decisions that will only make it harder — or at least more complex — for the incoming president and his team.

At least at this point, several cabinet posts remain unnamed, most importantly those of attorney general, and the secretaries of labour, commerce, interior and education, as well as the director of the CIA — along with most of the nominees for deputy secretary and all those assistant secretaries in almost every department, and every ambassadorship, save for that of the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, now back to cabinet rank. 

For the Biden world, the president-elect is being barked at by various quarters of the Democratic Party universe as to whether his top leadership is sufficiently diverse, ethnically, racially, in gender terms and across the party’s unruly ideological spectrum. In truth, the various diversity quotients of cabinet picks matter less than their respective levels of competence, bureaucratic nous, ability to work well together as a cohesive team and sympathy for the president’s priorities.

That, in turn, depends substantially on the respective calibre and experience of the deputies, undersecretaries, assistant secretaries and of the congressional relations heads and budget specialists in the departments. But the discussion about diversity is about the recognition of the various parts of society that helped Biden cross the finish line and thus becomes important in keeping the broader array of Biden supporters, members of Congress, progressive political activists and sympathetic commentators happy — or at least mollified.

Meanwhile, there are huge, consequential matters that need congressional (and thus presidential) action to address, at the minimum, including a new Covid relief and stimulus package and the government budget. Government budget issues include a defence and security package that has controversial elements such as relabelling military bases now named for Confederate generals and liability protections for various IT communications companies. 

Reporters are increasingly optimistic on at least one of these. As Politico wrote on Wednesday, “If you are gambling or setting odds, there’s a damn good chance that there will be a stimulus deal reached. It could be reached today – maybe! Theoretically! – given that: Friday is the government funding deadline, all the leaders agree a Covid relief deal should be paired with government funding, they have said they won’t leave town until a Covid deal is notched and passed, and the nation’s top lawmakers are talking and optimistic. Things would have to get real sideways for this to fall apart.”

Nobody in Congress wants to stick around over the Christmas/New Year’s break and then return only to confront this pile of immediate must-dos when the newly elected Congress comes to Washington in the first week of January — and after various unemployment benefits have already expired. And, of course, right behind that there is a confused situation with Covid vaccines as, so far, at least, little federal money has been appropriated for the actual distribution of the vaccines to their intended arms, rather than simply getting the vials as far as the various state capitals or a few major cities. If things get messy over this, it will be Biden’s problem.

In foreign relations, while American allies and friends are eagerly awaiting the beginning of the Biden administration, the waning Trump administration, now down to its last month and change, continues to carry out decisions that will only make it harder — or at least more complex — for the incoming president and his team.

Agreements such as the Trump administration’s acceptance of the incorporation of Western Sahara into Morocco as a sweetener for that country’s establishment of formal diplomatic ties with Israel; or the removal of Sudan from the terrorism list as an apparent sweetener for its new tie with Israel, among others, are bound to have repercussions in various ways, boxing in the freedom of movement by the new administration. US agreement to sell state-of-the-art military aircraft to the United Arab Emirates has also added an uncertain dimension to the region.

Further, the recent revelations of a massive computer hack by Russia deep into the guts of American government agencies will complicate US relations with that nation. In addition, there is the low ebb in any US-China trade negotiations and China’s ongoing military muscle-flexing in the South China Sea; the mutual jingoism between the US and Iran (especially after the killing of a leading Iranian nuclear scientist); and the void in US-North Korea progress after all those “love letters” all combine to comprise a troublesome in-box for a Biden administration. This will all be in addition to renegotiating re-entry to the Paris climate agreement and the six-party accord over Iran’s nuclear circumstances. 

Behind all of this will be the fact that US government policymakers must confront a world significantly different from the one this experienced Democratic team (since so many are returning from their extended tours of duty during the Obama administration). The global balance of power is shifting, new technologies are remaking old economic verities and the sudden effects of pandemics and other issues have upended much of what was once gospel about the virtues of globalisation.

Come January, we can expect the Biden administration to have a very short honeymoon from the media, politicians, and foreign nations, all. DM